My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
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I do like the look of Fani, see what I did there?
Looks an excellent pivot player who can be lethal shooting from distance and has some dig.
CORKCELT on 31ST JULY 2022 9:22 AM
It’s curious that you raise that objection in relation to my post , but not the one it was responding to.
Care to explain why?
What’s wrong with a 4:30pm kick-off? Much better than a 12 noon start.
Today is a 60k sell-out. Not many Celtic supporters upset about the kick-off time.
“CORKCELT on 31ST JULY 2022 9:25 AM
Sorry ghuys, didn’t mean to Post what a CELT, predictive text.”
:-)))))
Leaked third kit looks like an empty shirt on a computer on the kit designer before you add the colours and pattern. I do like the sleeve trim though!
MODERATOR1888 on 31ST JULY 2022 9:51 AM
‘WTF is a 4.30pm kick off for flag day???’
###
Just be grateful it’s not a week day.
TOM MCLAUGHLIN on 31ST JULY 2022 10:48 AM
What’s wrong with a 4:30pm kick-off? Much better than a 12 noon start.
Today is a 60k sell-out. Not many Celtic supporters upset about the kick-off time.
###
I thought it was only your political posts that were bereft of logic. It seems I was wrong.
Ernie’s upset.
Oh dear.
ernie
You must be aware that your acerbic tone lessens the chance of your posts making a difference. No?
Here’s hoping we are ept ,feckful and combobulated today …and Aberdeen have a dose of the mubble-fubbles .
Remember if your lucky enough to be going along , get in early Tifo Time
Mon the Hoops , Fly the Flag
So now your picking arguments with Tom Mcl and Corkcelt.
Is that why you come on cqn?, looking for disagreement.
Wonder what Ian Byrne ( hope i have spelt this liverpool mp’s name correctly) thinks of how the labour Party deals with dissent
I suppose if you live in the central belt and are retired a 4.30pm kick off on a Sunday is as good as any other time.
ERNIE
I’m retired and I’m not scared of the dark.
https://e0.365dm.com/22/05/2048×1152/skysports-celtic-scot-prem_5762887.jpg
DALRIADABHOY on 31ST JULY 2022 11:02 AM
‘So now your picking arguments’
###
Responding to posts does not amount to picking an argument.
For one thing, it’s reactive rather than pro active.
So what was the purpose of your post, other than to pick an argument?
https://i2-prod.dailyrecord.co.uk/incoming/article25739841.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200b/0_JS253630751.jpg
Oh dear, I see the smart alec is on best drop in later.
I think I am correct in saying that we beat a poor Aberdeen side by only one goal in each of three games last season. The Dons would seem to be a better outfit so far so I go to this game some trepidation (but only `some` ).
I hope, of course, that these worries are unfounded and I make the return to Arbroath with a smile on my face.
Hail ! Hail !
Celtics 61st league campaign of my life starts today.
As mentioned by others this is the most successful period in the clubs history.
None of our forefathers enjoyed the kind of success Celtic has given my generation. 54% of league titles won. 33% of Scottish Cups won.
More recently it’s been even better. Beating Man U and Milan and Ajax and Barcelona and Benfica in the top competition and enjoying domestic domination.
Yet I am more excited about this season than any I can remember.
Let hope all our wishes are fulfilled and we have a healthy, exhilarating and ultimately successful experience.
Incidentally, I have no problem in making the return journey from Arbroath to Celtic Park but I still think a 4:30pm KO , on a Sunday, for The Champions, is wrong.
Hot Smoked
I share that concern
Also
The teams who had not played any competitive football all struggled in the games they played yesterday against supposed lesser teams.
BURNLEY78 on 31ST JULY 2022 11:14 AM
That`s the spirit ! Hope to see you later.
Scullybhoy
Agreed
Not worth the bother
Definitely bullied at school.
B78
The `spirit` comment was in response to your 11.14am post ;not your 11:17am !!
BURNLEY78 on 31ST JULY 2022 11:14 AM
What do they say about lies, damned lies and statistics?
To say that the current period is more successful than the days of Jock Stein and the Lions is just daft.
I’m expecting Celtic to win the league this season,in saying that Ange is a decent coach but I’m not putting him on a pedastill ,that’s un fair ,
The guy I am travelling down with lives about a ten minute walk away and we are leaving at 12noon but I am having to restrain myself from leaving my house now !!
so thems ex left back lasts only 14 mins after coming on as a sub after a straight red card , would it have happened in here , nae didn’t think so.
Women’s Football (Long post but Celtic connections)
I do and always have had an interest in women’s football. Other may not and this post is not to compare the relative qualities of the men’s and women’s game although I would comment that the lack of fouling and feigning injury by the women do count in the girl’s favour which partly compensates for some of the goalkeeping.
My interest began in 1972 when a Lambhill local girl, Paddy McGroarty, was chosen to play for England’s women against Scotland at the first international between the countries. It is not known why she was eligible for England.
Paddy was the cousin of Pat Crerand and a Celtic fan. She had spent time as a novice in a convent to no avail.
She was about 11 years older than I, so out of my direct circle of friends, but I vaguely knew her via visits to her house to see her younger brother with whom we did play football sometimes. All the boys knew she was a serious footballer and not to mess with her.
I remember the interest in the 1972 game – it got a lot of coverage in the Record (which we used to buy. I said “used to”). Through this, the press picked up especially on Rose Reilly (another Celtic fan) and many people know the career that she had – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Reilly – culminating in winning the best player vote in the 1984 Mundialito, the precursor to the women’s world cup .
Rose got reasonably regular publicity through her stellar playing career but then was ignored for a long time until a few years ago when a lot of articles and interviews were run including explaining that a scout wanted to sign her for Celtic until he was informed that she was a girl and how she play football at school knowing that she would have to take the belt for breaching rules by playing with the boys.
Back to paddy: This article https://womensfootballarchive.org/2014/06/15/players-paddy-mcgroarty/ explains that Paddy was “the George Best of women’s football” – no mean feat. It also states that she was real character, not to the liking of the WFA.
She went on to have a good career in England and mentions Australia as her last know football mention.
This brings me to my next local connection with women’s football, my school friend Tom Sermanni, another local boy who grew up a mile from Paddy in Milton. He was a St Augustine’s school teammate of Tony Higgins who lived two doors away from me.
Tom was a Celtic Boys Club player of the season but never made the top grade and moved to Albion Rovers where I saw him play twice against Celtic in one of the two-legged League Cup ties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Sermanni
He also qualified as a teacher, moved to Blackpool and emigrated to Australia where he was asked, as an ex-pro, if he would help to establish girls’ football. This led on to becoming manager of the Australian Women (twice), the USA women, the top job in women’s international football and New Zealand women. He twice to Australia women’s team to the World Cup quarter finals and had some success with USA. I wonder if Paddy or he knows Ange.
It’s a pity that the women’s final tonight will clash with the Celtic game, otherwise I would certainly have watched it. May the better team win.
For the Motherwell managers job don’t think Kennedy is on there list ,he gets on well with Ange ,Who is in the running for M/well job I haven’t a clue ,personally Paul Hartley would be good choice for them ,and possibly Big McKay up at Ross County .
Off to Celtic Park to see the Champions against the Dons.
Cheerio for now.
Probably won’t see the game today..In Paris for the summer..Daughter and Pal here this weekend so will be cruising doon the Seine avec a glass of Moet Et Chandon….so some compensation.
Enjoy the day and stop fecking whinging about 4.30 kick off…half the world is starving
HRVATSKI JIM @11.26
Enjoyed your post,really interesting and what CQN is about.
Three nil today at Celtic Park….and hoping Germany girls win.
SPL Week 1 — KO scheduling …
File under SPL fixture computer wind up.
Just yanking our chain for laughs and giggles.
CL qualifiers involved so we had to pay.
SPL Week 1 — MIB Strategy / TFOD2.1 support.
I think they are playing the numbers game — small margins.
Blowing for imaginary fouls when a cross comes into the TFOD2.1 box.
Do it 20% of the time then the TFOD2.1 will lose 20% less goals from crosses.
I fear a similar game will be played with our offensive actions.
SPL Week 1 — SKY replay angle.
Going against my basic instincts but we need to follow the data.
Contentious decisions — how quickly are any replays shown if they are shown at all?
TFOD2.1 positive — no replays shown / quickly forgotten.
TFOD2.1 negative — instant and repetitive / questions asked in Holyrood.
Us positive — instant and repetitive / BBC documentaries made / MIB disappears.
Us negative — no replays shown / claims of mass hysteria put on the news agenda.
https://twitter.com/yogijunior3?t=wnPSTNHcMlQGMG9evz37sA&s=08
Yogi’s family asking celts to share stories of meeting him.
Could anyone who has met him and has a positive story to share have a look and post
I would say that 4.30pm ko isn’t ideal for the Aberdeen fans either
12NOON: EARLY ACCESS TO WEST STAND FACILITIES
While work is underway to prepare a new matchday bar facility for supporters to enjoy ahead of home games at Celtic Park, the club is offering early access to the West Stand concourse facilities on matchdays.
This early access will be available on Sunday from 12noon until 2:30pm, via Gate WS57/58 with kiosks open, toilet facilities and seating areas available, Hoopy on hand to say hello to young supporters with a games area to keep the kids busy too.
Plus we’ll have English Championship football available to watch pre-match with Sunderland v Coventry City on the concourse screens.
2PM: ENJOY PRE-MATCH ENTERTAINMENT ON THE CELTIC WAY
Arrive early to soak up the pre-match atmosphere with your favourite songs playing on the Celtic Way from 2pm, plus plenty of family entertainment on offer with face painters and balloon artists to keep the kids busy before the stadium opens at 3pm.
2:45PM: WELCOME THE CELTS HOME TO CELTIC PARK
Make some noise for the Bhoys as the Celts arrive at the foot of the Celtic Way at approximately 2:55pm. Led by captain Callum McGregor, the Bhoys will carry the SPFL trophy home to Paradise in front of the fans, before beginning their pre-match preparations.
Ernie right on form today.Ducking and diving that would have Sugar Ray Leonard purring.The only man to answer less questions than the whole Tory Cabinet put together.