My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
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TOM MCLAUGHLIN on 31ST JULY 2022 10:48 AM
What’s wrong with a 4:30pm kick-off? Much better than a 12 noon start.
Today is a 60k sell-out. Not many Celtic supporters upset about the kick-off time.
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Nothing for most fans who live locally Tom. However, for supporters from Donegal, Sligo, Derry etc. it’s a nightmare. Not just that it’s a 4.30 kick off but also on a Sunday. A lot of our members who were going cancelled as we will have to get the midnight boat back and if you’re working on Monday as they were that’s just not doable. It’s a holiday here in Donegal/Sligo tomorrow but not for the Derry/Tyrone bhoys. I’m not sure there is anything our club can do as the contract is between the SPFL and Sky but they should every time point out that we are not happy with the kick off times. Better than shrugging our shoulders as a club and say there’ nothing we can do. While Sky insist that Celtic fans only seem to travel from ‘one half of Glasgow’ we do in fact travel from far and wide and week in and week out.
https://twitter.com/yogijunior3?t=wnPSTNHcMlQGMG9evz37sA&s=08
His family are asking that celts share any stories they have of meeting him
here we go again
https://icdn.thecelticstar.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/image-96.jpeg
GENE on 31ST JULY 2022 11:58 AM
I would say that 4.30pm ko isn’t ideal for the Aberdeen fans either
Agreed Gene,when has a fan been a concern in face of TV scheduling! Sadly never imo
HH
BB @ 12.05
Not quite Butlins standard is it?
At least they know they have to do something.
Just a case that they don’t have a clue how.
Low rent / low energy / low horizons — welcome to the P/head fan experience.
At least AP will be on hand to make it happen on the park.
If it wasn’t for FMcC we would still have jumpers for goalposts.
The way forward is a £10mill amenity block behind the JS Stand.
5Km2 of facilities to bring the spend to P/head rather than the surrounding areas.
Bottom half open to all / top half linked to the JS Stand.
Needs effort / vision / ambition — not sure the board have any of that.
New pub in the JS Stand — opening three months late.
Either it is last minute dot com or the board struggle with planning.
Amateur hour.
Turkeybhoy
Shocked and stunned that you would compare, its a cult,its a cult to Sugar Ray Leonard. He is my favourite boxer of all time.
If you want a sporting comparison Eddie the Eagle would seem apt🤣
PS thought i would recommend the film an American Werewolf in London to you, this was after seeing Madmitch call you a moon howler.
So if your inner wolf needs stimulating for a period of moon howling watch the film.
Like all fellow Celts looking forward to Today and rest of season
Think we will be an improved outfit this season and will win the league comfortably
Europe different task and we might suffer on a few occasions
Hopping our new Centre Back is as good as he looks and sounds as this could be a key position in how our overall play will be effective or not
However these are just the mumblings of a celt who is wrong more than he is right
Enjoy the season ahead and hope we all have good health to do so
5-0 to the Bhoys
HH
GENE
MCPHAILBHOYS answer covers one strand,fans from up north,England etc
In todays day and age it should be simple to diaries,telly gets first dibs and we dae whit wur telt so see the hoops.
HH
Stx2 @ 12.28
Trying to find the Ir’n Bru factory in that picture.
Incredible how much housing has been lost to the area directly around P/head.
I blame the drift to the New Towns.
Started with the best of intentions — ended up as a Tory gerrymandering exercise.
Not good.
Guys,
The games against Norwich and Blackburn were also a nominal sell out.
The Champions should unfurl the flag at the first game of the season, not after the league has kicked off.
It should definitely not coincide with the biggest woman’s game of football ever on this Island which is live on terrestrial tv.
Imo it’s disrespectful and p@ss poor planning.
HH, COYBIG.
An Tearmann
I suppose we should feel honoured about getting the prime 4.30 slot on a Sunday but Sky care little about travelling fans – it’s all about subscribers
SLAINT ANGE
Sorry I took so long getting back to you, had to have my afternoon
nap and keep myself awake for a 1-30 in the morning k.o here in
Melbourne.
And no I didn’t watch any soccer today, tried to get some desperately
needed garden work done before spring arrives, but that lovely
bottle of the rid biddy kept winking at me and I succumbed.
Think if I was a special agent I’d be very easily tortured 🍷
BIG JIMMY
Like yourself Paddy’s not had the best of health lately, but he’s still
working tirelessly away with club memberships, events, and all other
things that comes with being a Celtic club Pressy.
Hope you are doing a bit better now.
H.H. Mick
guy who doesnt go to the games complains about the fan experience.
Great to have the Celts back in (competitive) action today. Despite their decent start to the season I expect the Dons to park the bus and frustrate. I think we’ll wear them down and run out 3-0 winners.
Fellas elsewhere in the know seem to suggest a loanee winger up next, probably just as Mikey departs. Feels right to me.
For those lucky enough to be there today, enjoy.
HH
https://twitter.com/CelticFC/status/1553076327976259588/photo/1
Wonder if there will be a vodka snorting table for the egg chasers …classy 😵
A new look for the new season at Celtic Park
https://www.celticfc.com/news/2022/july/29/a-new-look-for-the-new-season-at-celtic-park/
Champions should play 1st game of every season on the 1st Saturday of the new campaign..
End of- If you think otherwise or do not get why then go and watch tennis or some other sport.
D :)
Stx2 @ 1.19
Fabric panels hung around the ground — file under very low effort.
Step change in the fan experience around the ground = real work.
File under cheap creatives delivering a cheap job.
Big Auto — colour and texture cost next to nothing.
Real change costs real money — this is not real change.
The hype points to a lack of real progress.
Not good.
Dariadabhoy,
Cheers mate.Enjoy the game.
Awooooooooooooo.
agree, champions should open the season on the opening day .
FWIW,The Irish based fans can get a ferry about 8pm if it’s a 3 o’clock KO,today it’s 11pm,and that only gets you to Belfast …….
BB @ 1.39
If we had a hotel then they could have stayed over.
Cracking equaliser for Coventry.
Paddy Roberts on as a sub for Sunderland
SAINT STIVS
Very tastefully done by Celtic and of course much more impact in real life, and up close. The ole place is looking good.
https://twitter.com/mattmcglone9/status/1553725215900835840?s=24&t=E3EKJUf7bH_Q8qh1sdII7g
Big Joe gets it…..
Hart
Juranovic
CCV
Welsh
Taylor
O’Riley
Hatate
McGregor
Jota
Kyogo
Maeda
Expected team
Turnbull, Abada, Forrest, GG real quality on the bench
PHILBHOY on 31ST JULY 2022 8:19 AM
AIPPLE
Hope you and your family are safe and well.
News of the floods looks awful.
Take care and God bless.
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We are fine thank you. Just some water in the basement but a few cars written off on our street. Just sent a wee text to a few friends in the area affected to make sure they are still safe as more downpours last night. Many of the mobile networks are still down so making it tough.
Some incredibly horrid tales coming out. Poor wee kids.
It’s great to see us all getting excited about our first game of the league in a few hours.
And there is great excitement for the ladies football too with lots of coverage in the sports pages and national tv & radio. Even Twitter is buzzing saying that, at last, the womens’ game is finally getting the coverage and recognition it deserves.
And I agree. It’s just a pity that the two big football games today will be on more or less at the same time.
You might be surprised at who I’ll be supporting but I won’t reveal that until closer to the throw in.
So just to remind you that coverage of the Ladies All Ireland Senior Gaelic Football Final between Kerry and Meath in Croke Park will be live on TG4 from before 4pm.
*PLAYER OF THE YEAR 2022-23*
*COMPETITION STARTING TODAY – NAE MAIR SLEEPS!!!*
You’ll be glad, I’m sure, to know that this is my final big plug for this seasons Player Of The Year competition which kicks off in just under 2½ hours time.
I do hope that the idea is straightforward enough –
1. A competition like no other, a competition open to all. Just join in whenever you can. No need to register, sign up or pay fees as it’s just a bit of fun. No need to vote after EVERY game – just the games you see
2. All you need to do is watch the game, decide which 3 players performed best and then email those names to me at SENCELPOTY@GMAIL.COM .
3. No reasoning required and no need to put the players in 1-2-3 order.
4. I’ll add up the votes and issue the results for that game, usually between 10.00pm and 10.30pm on the evening following the game.
5. For each game, the Man Of The Match (as voted by you, readers!) wins 5 points. Next best gets 4, next gets 3 etc. These points accumulate on a game by game basis to eventually determine our Player Of The Year.
Simples? I hope so!
I look forward to those first emails flowing in from around 6.20 this evening…
Jobo
Defensive cover Jenz Bernabei and Ralston
Bada bing 2:03
Brilliant by Joe Hart.
As Ange says he signs people,
WEEFRATHETIM on 31ST JULY 2022 9:42 AM
Good morning all. Let’s all say a prayer for the people of Kentucky who are watching their homes getting washed away with devastating flooding. My heart goes out to them. HH
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Cheers for your prayers for my fellow Kentuckians.
PARKHEADCUMSALFORD on 30TH JULY 2022 4:03 PM
TOSB,
In my formative years of watching Celtic, we won nothing of note. I will never ever forget the 65 Final. That was the first trophy I saw us lift. I had already been attending Celtic Park, both for the big team and the reserves, for a number of years.
Mr Stein’s management skills, Charlie Gallagher’s corner kick taking ability and Big Billy’s heading I will always treasure.
……. ……….
I was there too. Unbelievable day. You could sense it was the start of something really big.
Aipple- hope situation there improves asap
MALONE BHOY on 31ST JULY 2022 10:26 AM
Aberdeen have been strong pre season so this should be a decent SPL level test.
We should be fine domestically, it’ll all be down to concentration, consistency, drive and desire because Sevco won’t drop many this season either.
In Europe I still feel we’re lacking defensive quality in the centre of the park.
We’ve got big Joe Hart playing defensive midfield !!!!
It’s not the kick off time (well, it is a bit lol)
We won the league and should have played first
The fact we are last????