My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
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Gun the sheep… wtf
Beat the sheep…
D :)
David66,
It is unlikely but I know if we get into our rhthym 4 goals first half by Celtic is possible.
34 in decimal, not keen on fractionals.
I got an Ayrton Senna on it.
There isnae any doubt Aberdeen under Jim Goodwin are coming for a 0-0 or a 0-1.
Excited by our team and they have had time on the Training Pitch to work on lots of things.
Who knows howevaaaaah.
I honestly think the bookies will be adjusting their odds quickly when it comes to Celtic & goals this Season.
Theres always the Looney Tunes Referees to put up with. Embarrassing every 1 of them.
Spike has some fresh fruit ;-))
https://youtu.be/p-IU-NQ8c14
HH
Our condolence to all the friends and family of Big yin Milan.We had the pleasure of his company here in OZ pre Covid.He was an absolute gentleman and fantastic company. God Bless. Paddy.
.
COYBIG. 3-0 Celtic.
HH, the journey resumes.
Hello again all you young rebels.
Let’s go bhoys and ghirls, it’s game day.
Not been so exited about the season ahead since big Jocks 67.
Thank you all so much for the kind reply’s to my wee tribute to
a wonderful human being and massive Celtic fan, BIGYINMILAN.
I knew the CQN family would step up and give him the send off
he deserved and you certainly delivered. 🥰
What do I expect this season ahead ?
For a start, we’ve got a settled multi talented team, and in my
opinion two maybe three world class players.
Europe should be our main objective, and get back to where
the big hitters would shit their breeks coming to Celtic Park.
Will we achieve that?
Ayes for me, but we still need more quality in certain positions
to overcome the billionaire buyers.
Would be happy with another title and a good run in Europe.
Feel free to differ.
What about that super duper Calvin Bassey, sent off on first game
for Ajax ?
Did nobody tell him the refs in Europe don’t play with the Ragers
rule book 😂
H.H Mick
Good morning from a wet North Staffs.
Hun referees have found a get out of jail card for VAR – blow the whistle before the ball hits the net – game stopped – nothing to see here.
Good morning all from Govanhill. Gerrintaethum Celtic!!!!
Good morning fellow Celts.
Today’s the day when the real football begins in front of a packed Celtic Park. Getting picked up at 12 noon for a couple of pints in Leith before the bus leaves at 1:30.
Like a wee bhoy waking up on xmas morn.
I have a dream that Celtic win by a minimum 2 goals to go top of the pile and remain there until next May and the league is won. Why not?
4-1 to the Celtic.
Hail Hail 🍀
MELBOURNE MICK AND PADDYMAC OZ…
Great stuff about BIGYININMILAN…He will be sorely missed especially by those who met him etc.
PADDY…I hope that your health is better mate.
HH to the Bhoys and Ghirls from OZ.
Peter Boyle…A shining star in life and beyond.
YNWA Peter.
DAVID66…
Good to read that your getting stuck into those Cans of Lager !
HH Mate.
Good morning from this dear green place (Garngad) to another dear green place CQN
I did say 4 – 1 but changed to 6 – 1 but any win with a 2 goal plus will do.
D :)
Good morning all from the Costa del Sol.
I’ll be in Fibbers in Torreblanca for the game.
C’mon the HOOPS
AIPPLE
Hope you and your family are safe and well.
News of the floods looks awful.
Take care and God bless.
MELBOURNE MICK
Did you watch the Australia Cup game between Central Coast Mariners and Sydney FC?
Incredibly good football with an equaliser by CCM with the last kick of the game.
No shortage of skillful players down under.
HH and keep posting.
Just realised the Australia Cup game has gone into extra time.
TOM MCLAUGHLIN on 30TH JULY 2022 8:06 PM
442 PARK THE BUS
I guess that makes the Labour Party a CULT then does it not?
####
No it doesn’t.
It suggests that the current party leadership is authoritarian.
You are still struggling to understand the concept.
The fact that a member of the Labour Party was prepared to publicly criticise the Party leader show it’s not a cult.
The reaction of Labour Party members and supporters to her being expelled show it’s not a cult.
Dissent doesn’t happen in a cult. Because cult members don’t want to dissent.
Looking forward like all to our first game of the season, As thrilled about it as I was over seventy years ago when I saw Charles Patrick Tully for the first time. Different times now, Read an article this morning saying how difficult it is to sign a player from EU countries due to rules after Brexit. Well, that’s one think I did not cause because I wanted to stay in the EU.
http://www.hesgoal.com/news/108852/Sydney_FC_vs_Central_Coast_Mariners.html
Sorry about poor punctuation and spelling. Wrote in a hurry.
G’mornin’ Champs…………………….
Intae thum.
HH
BTW, Denia Bhoy if you are looking in, what was the set like last night?
Reassuring on Flag day, first Competitive game of the Season, to log in and find the Ultra Celt Ernie extolling his love for the Club, his views on todays game and his hopes for the Season,
What a Celt.
Get in!!
It’s here at last
Mon the hoops
Sorry ghuys, didn’t mean to Post what a CELT, predictive text.
Now going to penalties in the Australia Cup. CCM down to 9 players ~ fabulous effort
Good morning all. Let’s all say a prayer for the people of Kentucky who are watching their homes getting washed away with devastating flooding. My heart goes out to them. HH
Anyhoo, happy flag day all. HH
Looking forward to the game today. Hopefully a good win with free flowing attractive football, what’s not to like?
Háil, hail!
MCPHAILBHOY
……..the mib!
Sydney FC win 3~1 penalties
PHILBHOY
yes that’s a given!
Up early and a hearty breakfast
Getting everything ready for a 12 noon kick off
WTF is a 4.30pm kick off for flag day???
Mod – Exactly.
4.30pm is a disgrace for the un furling of the champions flag.
Total disgrace.
D :)
I would like to think our board would have let the fans feelings known ……..
A forget they are a corrupt cabal as well.
Oh and PL should never be chairman of our board, get rid of the lot of the deadwood.
D :)
Dear oh dear.
I am so excited, no more sleeps yeah
Aberdeen have been strong pre season so this should be a decent SPL level test.
We should be fine domestically, it’ll all be down to concentration, consistency, drive and desire because Sevco won’t drop many this season either.
In Europe I still feel we’re lacking defensive quality in the centre of the park.
This is the day
This is the day :-)))).
Enjoy Celts.next title starts here.
Champions to work for
HH