Marginal advantages eventually come a cropper

458

One story which caught my eye last week was that we have 33 players out on international duty over this break, from a pool of 51 employed professionals (and that includes Derk Boerrigter). 13 Celtic players will join Scotland youth teams, with a further 6 going to other countries.

We know we can’t compete as we once did in the transfer market, so getting and developing the best youth talent has become an important part of the strategy.

All of this groundwork is for the long-term, though. Getting three points each Saturday and preparing for the challenges ahead is another question.

There was a moment on Saturday when Aberdeen manager, Derek McInnes, could have turned to his assistant and said, “If Killie hold on for another two minutes, the league is in our own hands”. That’s how close things got. Tom Rogic’s immaculate strike punctured that notion, before McInnes’ team’s second half collapse at Fir Park.

Now Aberdeen need us to drop seven points more than them, or eight if you consider goal difference. It’s not going to happen.  Aberdeen didn’t just slip up on Saturday due to a couple of defensive lapses, this result has been in the post for months.  They clawed their way into contention by gaining a series of marginal advantages – they haven’t won a game by more than a single goal since before Christmas – 14 games ago!

This season they have been ‘everyone’s favourite second team’ who have only just got over the line for three months of the season.  This is a statistical anomaly.  A more regular distribution of chances created and converted would have seen them win several of those games comfortably, but winning far fewer games.  Their dopplegangers in England, Leicester City, are benefiting from a similar phenomenon.  Both teams’ form could drop off a cliff next season, but the chances of either improving win ratios, if not performances, are slight.

Leicester are favourites to win in England because the behemoths, whose spending-power dwarfs most others, have been unable to dig deep to find a dirty win often enough.  Like Celtic’s on Saturday.  That, as we will soon declare, is why we’re champions!

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  1. Paul67

     

     

    There was a comment last night on MOTD2 that relates to your blog.

     

     

    In talking about both Leicester and Spurs Shearer opined that the key factor in the success of both was consistency of selection.

     

     

    For reasons we know ( horrible injury list to key players) and reasons we don’t that only the manager could answer, there has been inconsistency of selection up to the last few weeks that has bedevilled performances.

     

     

    It’s interesting that RD having to secure the title has fallen back on older hands like Mulgrew and Commons and Brown, the latter still struggling to find form.

     

     

    Just taking yesterday I would have thought that GMS would be a certain starter based on more than decent performances in the last two games. No sign yesterday which I put down to injury because by God did he take some hammering in his last two games.

     

     

    There is little if no msm analysis of the factors RD has had to deal with. Such an analysis would enlighten supporters and so inform their opinions, but analysis and thought is the last thing those without the capacity or time to do so will produce.

     

     

    It’s Media for Dummies.

     

     

    To balance I would love to know what RD’s thinking was before each game selection and if after the game or series of games he recognised where he had got selection/formation wrong.

     

     

    Now a post match blog based on RD’s thoughts from him would go a long way to achieving balance. A blog on lines of the ones with Willie Wallace etc.

  2. Melbourne Mick on

    Hello again all you young rebels.

     

     

    Fantastic weekend with the Mornington hoops, the Bay Hotel was

     

    jampacked and with two Aussies Tom Rogic and Scott McDonald

     

    scoring vital goals for us what could be better, well Guinness were

     

    giving us free pints for our St Patricks day event yeehaa.

     

    Walking down Main St. Mornington all you could see was this massive

     

    tricolour with a shamrock in the middle stretching from the top of the

     

    building and about ten metres down to the door entrance what a sight

     

    to behold and hoops everywhere, a young professional photographer

     

    was in the middle of the road, traffic stopped while he took photos for

     

    the Bay Hotel Facebook page if anybody would like to see them, thats if

     

    anybody is sober enough to upload them yet, they should also be on

     

    our social celts mornington Facebook page very soon.

     

    More new members signed up on Sun. were getting stronger so we must

     

    be doing something right, maybe it’s Paddymacoz’s charm, who knows

     

    it’s certainly not his jokes or his Irish dancing lol.

     

    Anybody in Oz looking for a photographer could not do any better than

     

    this Celtic lhad.

     

    info@juniordeluise.com.

     

    H.H Mick

  3. Auldheid on 21st March 2016 12:57 pm

     

     

    Did you see RDs reaction to Rogic’s strike. I’ll tell you what I’ll take that from a manager struggling to find his best team than a clinical reaction from one that *knows* it every time.

     

     

    Maybe, just maybe RD does actually get Celtic.

  4. DAMO LENNON on 21ST MARCH 2016 12:51 PM

     

     

    You can ‘plus1’ from me that post and article.

     

     

    I’m no fan of the young Daniel O’Connel as a singer but I like the cut of his jib on this ….

     

     

    ;-)

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  5. Killie where coasting? Ffs? Not while I watched the game did they at any time COAST, there was only one team playing football on Sat. And they won, coasting? Ffs, I’v heard it all now.

  6. The Green Man

     

    like we have been “Seriously battered”in Europe,in my past 50 years of watching Celtic.Like the richest teams in the world get “Seriously battered”in Europe at the moment.I will say something to all the ones saying we should have had this league won,as if we could affect the excellent run of victories Aberdeen put together a couple of times.This is ,I think,the best Dons team since Fergies time.Mc Innes has done a terrific job up there.All this guff is “O– F—“nonsense.Because they are not in it we should be skating it.

     

    Yes we are not playing great,but this not some new phenomenon.We have been terrific,and we have been poor.Not all down to the manager.3 players have been mentioned,Broony,Biton,Commons,I will add Lustig.None of them really showed up on Saturday,yet most on here would have at least 3 out of the 4 in their first pick.I think the manager is depending on the experienced players to get us over the line.I would hope the 3 midfielders line up against the Huns,hopefully fitter and back to what we know they can bring.

     

    I remember Lennox with a last gasp goal at Motherwell,again against Morton,these when we should have been out of site with the team we had,but leagues were won with such.Just enjoy the victories,a lot of us lived through much worse times.

  7. Weeminger

     

     

    I do think that RD gets Celtic!

     

    Do Celtic get RD?

     

    Will this in itself be enough to keep him in the job?

     

     

    I don’t know is my answer.

     

    Sadly as I’d like it to be yes and yes cos I really warm to the guy.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  8. Just as important as Tam’s genius to touch and strike a ball like that was wee MacGregor’s perfect pass.

     

     

    It’s almost as if Callum pushed the ball at Rogic saying “go on big man, we all know you have the talent, now show us”.

  9. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    THEBARCAMOLE

     

     

    Correct,bud.

     

     

    That lot deny the death of their hero brethren but wish us dead with every second of their existence.

     

     

    I doubt there’s a more hated team in their homeland than Celtic.

     

     

    A prophet is without honour in his own country,right enough.

     

     

    Anyway,hope yer fine and dandy,bud. Call me this evening if you fancy a blether.

  10. AULDHEID

     

     

    RD has won a league cup, and a league title so far, and is going for a double this season hopefully, right now your taking a doing on res.12, so to be asking any man who is doing as good as he can at his job while you have been swimming up stream for over three years on res.12, IMO is redicules.

     

    Mind you R D bashing is in vogue at the moment, feel free to join in.

  11. BIG-CUP-WINNERS on

    Raymac on 21st March 2016 12:21 pm

     

     

    James Forrest has an article re the Scottish cops in Focus(presumedly) running a sting on football fans.

     

     

    I’ve said this before—Scotland now resembles the old Stormont N.I. state more than ever. The Special Powers Act in “Ulster” allowed a cop to make his own mind up. If he thought you were going to commit an offence,then that was enough. It seems to be enough in the present day Scotland as well. Call it what it is. Sectarianism and Racism on the part of the authorities and MSPs.If you want an independant Scotland then set up the equivalent of Sinn Fein. There certainly seems to be few supporters of free speech in Scottish society. The SNP? Posturing joke of a party. By their deeds shall ye know them.

  12. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    DAMO LENNON

     

     

    My Dad was born in 39.

     

     

    Until Jock,he saw us win

     

     

    One title

     

     

    Two Scottish and two League cups.

     

     

    The Empire Exhibition Trophy.

     

     

    Small wonder he’s a happyclapper when he watched decades of dross.

     

     

    (Though the first 89’40” on Saturday stretched his limits,I reckon!)

  13. Green Man,

     

    Really,I just have to give up with your comments some time.If RD wins the double,you still want him sacked.With Allan,Ajer,Janko,Teirney,Nesbitt,Christie,all being nursed through at the moment,two CHs,permanent,for a change,I would think next season could be a season we have all been waiting on.He deserves a chance to put his own team on the park.If he is lucky with injuries,which he most certainly has not been so far,and he does not do the business,or show signs that he will,then by all means come back then.I will support you.

  14. AULDHEID on 21ST MARCH 2016 12:57 PM

     

     

    To be fair, Leicester are only competing on one front,

     

     

    They played 2 games in the FA Cup and 3 games in the League Cup. 43 games this season will be significantly less than any amount of games Celtic have played.

     

     

    It’s important to note that Leicester heavily rotated in the cups. So a lot of their first team were saved from playing anything but league games.

  15. Mountblow tim on

    Good afternoon CQN

     

     

    Thank you all for your kind words and sympathy at this sad time.

     

    It is of great comfort to know that you are thinking of us as we grieve Margarets death.

     

     

    Margaret was a caring,loving wife and mother and our loss is too great.

     

    Your kind words will us in the difficult times ahead.

     

    But knowing that Margaret touched so many lives will help us to accept untimely death.

     

     

    Thank you all once again for your thoughtfulness

     

     

    Warm regards

     

     

    David and Davina

  16. Y Note 67

     

     

    If you thought my post was not supportive of RD then your not that bright.

     

     

    On Res12 you remain as ignorant as ever.

  17. BMCUW,

     

     

    Just like my Dad, born in 1946.

     

     

    He’s a grumpy old git though, never done moaning about Ronny!

  18. BMCUW…

     

     

    Cheers pal…

     

    Quiet time, so thought would check out CQN…

     

    Noticeable (to me anyway) that some issues/posts that (previously) would have been challenged quickly and by more than a few, appear to be ignored by many but not all, thankfully.

     

    This morning’s slur re mental health issues. A recurring insult tossed about on these pages, sad to say.

     

     

    Aye A.B.C. right enough.

     

    Call you later.

     

     

    Regards & Hail Hail

     

    TBM

  19. Turkeybhoy

     

     

    I am disappointed at some of our play, we can and should be doing better. But, seriously how can we sack a double winning manager ( if that is indeed the case )

     

     

    Once we go down that road, where does it end? it will need to be a brave or money motivated manager who knows that only the treble will be enough to satisfy our support.

     

     

    Poor performances = sacked.

     

    Players not giving 100%= sacked.

     

    Empty seats against Hamilton ,Et al = sacked.

     

    Failure to qualify for thr CL= sacked.

     

    Failure to dominate the Europa league = sacked.

     

    Being ” too nice ” = sacked.

     

    Not putting PL in his place = sacked.

     

    Not being in total command of every aspect of the English language = sacked.

     

    Not being able to prevent injuries to players = sacked.

     

    Not being able to manipulate the media= sacked.

     

    Not playing youth players despite being under pressure to win every game.= sacked.

     

    Not getting a big enough budget for players to satisfy the support= sacked.

     

    Not stating that the club should pay the living wage. = sacked.

     

    Not standing up for supporters who set off Flares etc. = sacked.

     

    Not inheriting the best scouting system in Football = sacked.

     

    Displaying too much emotion = sacked.

     

     

    Wow, I hope the Ronny haters have Jose Mourinho or at least Superman lined up.

     

     

    Hail, Hail. In Ronny I trust.

  20. Gerryfaethebrig on

    Mountblow Tim

     

     

    Hopefully remembering all your good times will help you all through this sad time

     

     

    No one walks alone

  21. We émigré 1.03

     

     

    Yes I concur. I thought it was a defining moment that has happened at Kilmarnock before.

     

     

    What has not helped perceptions of RD imo is his apparent lack of emotion when observed watching the game.

     

     

    Neil Lennon was more visibly emotional in his reaction to events on the field and in reacting as supporters did he established that connection.

     

     

    I was delighted for RD on Saturday because as I tried to explain in my previous post he suffered from smsm hostile opinion that failed to take in all the factors he has had to contend with.

     

     

    Equally pleasing was the players reaction.

     

     

    Yup we have a bit of a way to go but that is how you get consistently and hopefully on Saturday we just turned a corner in the right direction.

  22. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    THEBARCAMOLE

     

     

    Ach,mibbe we shouldnae be so quick to criticise that. It might be that the poor sods have mental health issues of their own.

     

     

    Look forward to your call,bud. If my Mum allows me to be dragged away from a force-feeding frenzy of Corrie on the telly (!)

     

     

    She canny believe I rarely watch TV. A few hours up here reminds me why,haha!

  23. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    We are in a different financial environment, which has required a different football model. There has been some short-term pain, but I think for long-term gain. In my opinion Ronny is the right man to take us forward from here.

     

    This season might well have been the low point in a cycle. If this low point gives us a fifth consecutive league title and a Europa league group stage then I don’t think that’s too low a low point.

  24. Timaloy29

     

     

    Good point in RD’S favour. My point was that success depends on consistency of selection and I believe injuries that RD cannot possibly be rrspinsible for have played a large part.

     

     

    What I was also saying was that feedback on other factors would inform opinions and help RD or any manager wishing to connect with the support.

  25. Afternoon folks,

     

     

    Quick post during lunch then back to work.

     

     

    Auldheid, decent idea re Ronny coming onto the blog, post match. Would be good to ask him some questions to understand his thinking. We may re-appraise our opinion of him if we get some answers to what appears to me to be some baffling team selections and tactics. But coming from the chap himself, it might make more sense what he is trying to achieve.

     

     

    HH Dan

  26. What a goal that was. I was jumping about Teach Phaidi Oig like a nutter.

     

     

    However, the lack of will, energy and tempo from players like Commons was unforgivable. I thought he in particular was a disgrace for a professional football player.

     

     

    Add in Brown, McGregor and Biton, who never won a tackle… not one tackle all game and you’ve problems.

     

     

    While nothing came off for CKR, I thought he at least tried. Having a strike partner who has no link up -play is difficult.

     

     

    Sin é.

     

     

    Árd Macha

  27. South Of Tunis on

    Speculation

     

     

    Espresso time – way down south..

     

     

    Switch on the tele – up pops a fitba journo with a photo of Mourinho talking to Higuain’s brother ( his agent) in a London resturant.Evidence enough to then claim that Higuain will be Mourinho’s first signing for Manchester Utd.Fee ? – £ 75 million.

  28. AULDHEID on 21ST MARCH 2016 1:49 PM

     

     

    I like Neil Lennon but he does, to a certain extent, look out for number one.

     

     

    If Celtic got a bad result he would:

     

     

    a) Go after the officials

     

     

    b) Criticize the players

     

     

    He was insulated from criticism this way. To be fair, he often had a point regarding the decisions and maybe blaming the players was an attempt to motivate them.

     

     

    But at the end of the day, we were all desperate for NL to do well. We were emotionally attached to him . The SFA targeted him, the Scottish legal system let him down and Rangers fans were trying to kill him.

     

     

    I couldn’t imagine a club with a bigger siege mentally than Celtic at that time.

     

     

    Just remember the anger when that guy got away with assault despite physically attacking Neil on television.

     

     

    Just remember when Diouf and Bougherra walked out of Hampden laughing after the “game of shame” and only Neil Lennon was punished

     

     

    We don’t have the same emotional attachment to Ronny and he hasn’t nurtured that siege mentality.

  29. The Battered Bunnet on

    It may be aprocryhal, it may even be a broken figment of my imagination, but there’s a story I recall about 2 great golfers in the closing holes of a match play final, could have been Snead v Hogan.

     

     

    It’s all square going down the stretch.

     

     

    It’s a Par 3, perhaps the 15th.

     

     

    Snead has the honour, and plays a beautiful shot onto the green, it rolls straight at the flag, hits the pin, bounces out and finishes 4 feet away. The crowd goes bonkers.

     

     

    Hogan next. He hits a peach, one bounce and it stops dead, inside Snead’s, 3 feet from the hole, uphill putt to come. The crowd reacts like fissile material reaching critical energy.

     

     

    Snead – “Wow! Great shot Ben. Great shot.”

     

     

    Hogan – “Thanks Sam. How’d you get on?”

     

     

    Lesson? Play your own game. Focus only on your own performance.

     

     

    Derek McInnes made the classic mistake of watching the competition on Saturday. His mind, and those of his players, wasn’t on the job in hand.

  30. Gerryfaethebrig on

    Am confused….. Not sure if Ronny should play the victim or start playing golf

     

     

     

    Just keep gathering titles Ronny

  31. BMCUUW…

     

     

    Fair enough pal…

     

    Still though, for me, fair challenge is generally the way to go re…

     

     

    Didn’t Corrie used to be a wee CSC enclave (-: ???

     

     

    Regards & Hail Hail

     

    TBM

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