Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.
My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.
An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:
“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”
So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.
The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.
Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.
Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity. Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.
My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.
Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.
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NORTH CYPRUS (FORMERLY BAKU) BHOY on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:15 PM
True, but at least our fans are not suffering in the Bernabeau(?).
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They`d be crying all the way to the cantina and the senoritas.
Every cloud.
:-)
6-0 to Real ..I See big Ronny has only hit 4…Total Non Trier…Sack him….Jeezo bullitt Dodged there by us….We aint within a Zillion miles of that level…and lets be honest, Deila was brought in to Mould a TEAM on the cheap(As he done in Norway) To Compete With Bigger Hitters..Its Failed So Far…4 wins from 21 against full time Opposition in Europe©TGBS….IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN….
CSKA score in Eindhoven
Eindhoven equalise
Citeh 2-2. Sterling! Never fails, does it?
Juve losing in Seville, so Citeh have a chance of winning the group with a win and, theoretically, getting an easier draw. 3-2 Sterling, ha ha!
Great game.
I’m predicting that Real won’t score another, professional respect kicking in?
Jeezo, even Bonney’s scored! 4-2 Citeh.
8 ..Jeezo….Imagine us Being hit for 8..naw …6 was Shocking..8….Naw..But as Things Stand…Its Coming…Gotta Change
MACJAY1 FOR NEIL LENNON on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:19 PM
NORTH CYPRUS (FORMERLY BAKU) BHOY on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:15 PM
True, but at least our fans are not suffering in the Bernabeau(?).
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They`d be crying all the way to the cantina and the senoritas.
Every cloud.
:-)
– See more at: http://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/next-goals-the-winner/comment-page-7/#comment-2733662
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Ah 2004, I remember it so well. :-)
An OG by Wolfsburg worse then anything Efe ever done,
and 60 seconds later they score at the other end.
CORKCELT on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:27 PM
An OG by Wolfsburg worse then anything Efe ever done,
– See more at: http://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/next-goals-the-winner/comment-page-7/#comment-2733671
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Efe is innocent!!!!!
3-2!!
NORTH CYPRUS (FORMERLY BAKU) BHOY on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:26 PM
Ah 2004, I remember it so well. :-)
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My “away game” was Leeds `70.
Slightly different ambience.
Propper is better than Cooncil ….Allegedly lol
Defending at corner failure x 2.
Wolfsburg v Man U
What’s the betting Man Utd get Valencia in the Europa….?
Auld flat face LVG must have been watching some Celtic european games
West end,
I think valencia would take that. Struggling a bit to qualify.
That said, I’m not sure two ‘drop outs’ can meet in the next round neebs.
HH
Is it wrong to be delighted for Åge Hariede?
Good night in the cl
The juve cheats beaten into second place
Manure gubbed out in Germany
Ibra scores as psg win
And … the Swedish turnips humiliated 8-0 in their dick of a managers last European match
BOURNESOUPRECIPE on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:41 PM
Is it wrong to be delighted for Åge Hariede?
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Bit of an arse, couldn’t help but think GIRFUY.
Man city top group.
I never saw that wan coming efter matchday one.
HH
Real Madrid 8 up at halftime 17 the winner
New SPFL Rules in operation :))
I thought Malmo might have got a draw from tonight’s match, given the way they disposed of us in the qualifying rounds.
Still, we gave a good account of ourselves in the UEFA cup, so that’s a positive I guess.
We at least know our level at the moment.
#cynical.com
Had to laugh at the English commentators praising manures efforts
Jeezo..
.In The Champions league..We could Be 10nd…That Is Frightening….
1/4 of a billion to go out in the group stages, Louis??
Citeh fans will enjoy the gloating over the Manurians after their many years of suffering!
Sure LVG was bemoaning the lack of an Aguero or a Suarez the other day.
It’s jist no’ fair’ Louis! Do these people expect you to perform miracles on your non-existent budget?
How much did the Wolfsburg team cost in comparison to the Man Utd team on the park?
I honestly don’t know, just interested.
TBJ
They were praising them on NewsTalk Irish radio as well, very unlucky by all accounts, completely ignoring the three they let in, ejits.
HH
Small Minded A@@H@@@S..laughing at the MALMO Manager…Why?.. as The Glorious His Highess( Sarcasim) Bono Said” Tonight Thank God its Them instead of You”…MalmoAnd their Manager Kicked Ronny and our teams Ass….Whats Too Laugh At?
Tet
They stated the very young team with an average age of 24 had done well
I suppose the smsm will have Man Utd after warbo now!
Malmö are in pre season training. Before tonight they’ve lost their previous two games 4-0 and 5-0. Additionally, their manager has announced he’s leaving.
I think you guys have just become too used to us getting slagged off by media if we win, lose or draw.
Nothing wrong in looking for positives by yer own in my book :)
HH
HT,
Behave you.
If celtic fans want to use Malmo results to beat up our own club well why not?
Tongueincheeksmileythingy
HH
Just catching up. Reading back there was discussion about the changes to the league cup format.
For all competitions I would like to see penalties replaced by next goals the winner aka golden goal. However, to ensure the next goal doesn’t take all night, a player from each side must be withdrawn ever two minutes until it is five a side.
HT, ever the optimist :)
Ht
We were in pre season training. When we played Malmo. .. no one excused us