Penalty competitions are not decided by random luck. Teams from higher divisions win against lower division opponents more often than the reverse, by 8 percentage points. That advantage pales into insignificance compared to the benefits of going first in a penalty competition.
A 2010 study published in the American Economic Review found a systemic first-mover advantage. Teams going first in a penalty competition won on 60% of occasions. The study found players had more success taking a kick that would put them into the lead, than when they were merely drawing level.
The difference was most pronounced comparing a kick to win a competition, which had a 92% conversion rate, with a kick to avoid defeat, which was successful on 62% of occasions. This is a manifestation of Loss Aversion. The fear of losing something hugely impacts our behaviour, far more than the prospect of winning does. I could get distracted here and say the fear of losing 10-in-a-row took hold at Celtic Park, at the cost of where heads should have been.
Another 2010 study examined Emotional Contagion and penalty competitions. Players who celebrated after their kick were more likely to be on the winning side than those who quietly returned to the centre circle. Specifically, a player who immediately follows an opponent that celebrates extravagantly is more likely to miss than when this factor is controlled for.
This study’s conclusion is quite fascinating, “that emotional contagion is an important process in the context of elite sport performance.” From all these years writing and reading CQN, I could suggest that emotional contagion works in all aspects of life. It is a real thing that has an impact on those around us.
A 2012 article in Economic Inquiry promoted a tweak to penalty competitions. Instead of Team A always kicking ahead of Team B, it suggested Team A – Team B, then Team B – Team A, or ABBA, not ABAB. The ABBA system has been trialed and proven to eliminate the first-mover advantage, however, various authorities have thought it too confusing for fans!
Practice is a whole other area, one that was rejected on these shores for many years. The challenge here is that the problem for an elite professional is not to kick a ball 12 yards, but to do so in acute circumstances that are impossible to replicated on the training field.
A 2010 study out of University of Plymouth found that practice through Functional Imagery Training was found to improve penalty kick outcomes (other types of practice, which were used as a control, did not). So practice, but only if you know how to practice.
I also read a study that found if you are facing your own fans you are more likely to win a penalty competition, but I can’t find it……
We put a lot of work into finding advantages at Celtic. Improving penalty outcomes is one of the clearest benefits we can achieve. It is a bit too late for others.
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After his team gets pumped today that torn faced hun Nielson will praise GVB and call him the greatest manager since the gallant pioneers rowed up the Clyde in their simmet and drawers.
43 years ago today, 10 men won the league, god bless Johnny Doyle!…🍀
43 years ago, my god how time flies, was a teenager then😱
21-5-79
I remember as we were leaving the ground and heading west along Janefield St there was a wee lady in her verandah holding up a big picture of the Pope.
Some things you never forget!
I was 14, my first Glasgow Derby.
I hope the positive comments re Jota and C C-V in this article turn out to be true:
https://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/6-5m-jota-go-ahead/
I hope the positive comments re Jota and C C-V in this article mean they will both be with us next season:
https://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/6-5m-jota-go-ahead/
??????
Hot Smoked, you ok old chap?😂😂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WK8g7zFPLY
Johnny Doyle
Brilliant!
I like Dexys Midnight Runners!
HH
Phil
BIGRAILROADBLUES on 21ST MAY 2022 8:43 AM
After his team gets pumped today that torn faced hun Nielson will praise GVB and call him the greatest manager since the gallant pioneers rowed up the Clyde in their simmet and drawers
=======
That last sentence really made me laugh out loud.
Not the first time in the last few days I’ve done that right enough…
It appears Craig Gordon considers winning the cup today will eclipse anything in his career with Celtic
5 League champions
2 Scottish cups
5 League cups
Get real Craig
43years ago
Jeezo my first Celtic v the huns game
Amazing🍀🍀
Not to mention 2 trebles and an invincible season
Celtic are expected to win trophies. Hearts aren’t.
I can understand where Craig Gordon is coming from.
Bigrailroadblues
Brazen usually a safer bet on days like this. Hearts are the only mob I’ve never seen in there. Every other support has been in, going to club or Scotland games at Hampden, and yes there’s a few bluenoses drink in it. Won’t call them huns are they’re brand new guys.
Golfers demand deathly silence when hitting their shots and go apeshit if a butterfly takes off half a mile away and causes them to hit their shot ever so slightly wrong.
I’ve always thought opposition fans behind the goal should stand still and mute as the player walks from the half way line. The eeriness will surely exacerbate their already fragile nerves.
And as the player gets into his final stride before shooting JUMP around and make an ENORMOUS noise to scare the living daylights out of them.
Blakey 10.17. Yes, been in the Brazen and Sharkeys many times over the years, only a short walk for me. Think we’ll go to the Laurieston, great Guinness and Clanceys always make you welcome.
HOT SMOKED @ 9:16
—-
You’re “In a New York minute”, so good you said it twice….but of course, everything can change!
Heavily conflcted, hoping for a Hearts win.
Alas, I suspect they are pretty poor team and sevco will be too much.
If dreams come true, Liam Boyce for a hattrick right enough
Gene ,Big Jimmy,Park Road67 & Philbhoy thank you all for your good wishes,the party will be starting soon ,I never thought I would say but cmon the Jambos,do what the Hibbies done on the 21st May .HH
why is hateley suddenly appearing on bbc football page – appease the hordes?
FANADPATRIOT
Hooooooooooopy birthday.
Scullybhoy…that was very touching…I never did see Johnny Doyle play. I missed a lot of the 70s and almost all of the 80s, so, there were players I never saw play for us. And no, I wasn’t in jail.
JACKIEMAC on 21ST MAY 2022 10:58 AM
why is hateley suddenly appearing on bbc football page – appease the hordes?
——–
Probably because Sevco sacked him and where else do you go if you need money and are an ex sevco/deadco? BBC Scotland.
Leftclicktic
Thank you ,I think it will be a good day HH
Weebobbycollins on 21st May 2022 11:04 am
Scullybhoy…that was very touching…I never did see Johnny Doyle play. I missed a lot of the 70s and almost all of the 80s, so, there were players I never saw play for us. And no, I wasn’t in jail.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I won’t ask. Enjoy these clips – there are much longer ones available.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXLpcrFYANo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5jeFDE_Aes
There was more in Merchant City last week,than in Seville…….
WBC,
I know what you mean about the 70s.Some of that Hash was powerful stuff.
Ye,stay cool dude. :-).
A debate ragin on Follow Follow about the possibility of GVB being fired if they loose today.
Loyal to the core
And so it begins.The race to sign World class,Bassey.This after a patchy season for the Huns,one very decent performance has him up there in megastar bracket.Could even be worth more than KT.
Meanwhile Fulham bid 4 million for him.
I see Francisco Ortega is a rumoured signing , this one could be on as I see he is only 5ft 8 inches . God almighty are we never going to learn . Bar a few exceptions we could be called the tiny tots .
DREW1967 on 21ST MAY 2022 10:00 AM
43years ago
Jeezo my first Celtic v the huns game
Amazing🍀🍀
——
Drew1967- Aye yer not as young as me.😂
Big Jimmy I hope that BRRB never lead you astray during the week.
D :)
TB . I thought bassy had a good game for them on Wednesday , but like against us on semi final day I wonder when he is going to get penalised for his breenging , he should have been off for persistent fouling ( as should lundstrum ) and I can’t see him getting away with that anywhere else but hunland Scotland HH
Sooooooo much pyoor rraaaage,on Bears Den today, first up,
Ryanair. Dirty Fenian Bassas. 2nd up,
Paddy Power. Dirty Fenian Bassas. And finally,entering straight in at No 3, we have,
Kevin Rowland,Dexys Midnight Runners. Dirty Fenian Bassas.
Kevin angered the Hun hordes by complaint about a large number of them singing,”We hate Roman Catholics,outside a Spanish Bar.
Jimtim,
Yes I think the boy is a good player,loads still to learn,and a seemingly very nice kid,seen him in an interview.No problem.
Its the usual guff about his overnight rush to superstardom from the usual suspects,and the ludicrous valuations being bandied around.