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St Mirren benefit from recency bias

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Celtic comprehensively destroyed St Mirren on 2 January, our last impressive performance against an SPFL club.  Since then, St Mirren have won three of their four games, conceding only once (to Newco).  Their last two wins, 0-3 at Easter Road and 2-0 home to Dundee, put them nine points ahead of their two city rivals and comfortably in fifth place in the table.

We should be aware of recency bias, though.  Before the winter break, St Mirren lost seven in nine games.  One of their wins since then was 1-0 at home to third tier Queen of the South in the last round of the Scottish Cup.  While Hibs were a close match for Celtic on Wednesday, their capitulation to St Mirren told more about their fragility than the victors.

Celtic’s loanee Kwon Hyeok-kyu has picked up a lot of the credit for St Mirren’s current form.  I am split between wanting to see how he performs against a top side and hoping his deal means he will be sitting in the stand tomorrow.

A few eyebrows were raised (including by me) when we signed the midfielder from the Korean second tier.  Although Brendan has yet to offer Kwon any gametime, I hear he thinks the player is a prospect.

Stephen Robinson had Saints press at Celtic Park earlier in the season.  After two wins, I expect nothing less on Sunday.  It should be an entertaining cup tie.

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  1. Saint Stivs on

    Ticketing sales revenue = £7.15m or £2.4m per game.

     

     

    now Hospitality for a CL game is more complicated to work out.

     

    Lounge accesses and the best seats often handed over to UEFA Sponsors

     

    and then the tented village.

     

     

    several commented last few seasons of away fans getting into the lounges sportiung colours and being vocal.

     

     

    anyways, with league match day hospitaltiy sold out , i dont think it is unfair to estimate , and based on ticketing 40m total, with stadium operations at £10m, we can add a 20% hospitality uplift to the £2.4m per game – so that is £0.48m –

     

     

     

    giving us as estimated revenue value of £2.88m per champions league match.

     

     

    or £8.64m for group participation only.

     

     

    add to the participation and prize money (only 1 win and a draw remember)

     

     

    Champions league particpation total value generated – £ £28,290,000 + £8,640,00 =

     

     

    £36,930,000.

  3. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    LOL – “We don’t need a blue card up here”.

     

     

    I also laughed out loud the other day when BR was asked about Warnock and what he’ll need to get used to – “the pitches, media and referees”.

     

     

    Spot on.

  4. Saint Stivs on

    £36,930,000. = 43,220,000EUR

     

     

    so a stab at a forecast for particpation next season, and an estimated real value for the new format.

     

    various sources – including uefa.

     

     

    ——————-

     

     

    UEFA have announced a significant increase in prize money for the Champions League starting next season.

     

     

    It was confirmed on Wednesday that UEFA have increased the total prize money for next season’s Champions League up to £2.1 billion (€2.46 billion). This is an increase of £400 million from the current figure which is thought to be in the region of £1.7 billion (€2.1 billion).

     

     

    Next season will see the Champions League expand to a new format, with the number of teams increasing from 32 to 36 clubs. The new format will see every team in one league table, with the only draw being at the start to determine the league-phase fixtures.

     

     

    Every single club will earn a minimum of €18.6 million just for participating. That is up from €15.6 million currently.

     

     

    And with other automatic payments, that would in reality be €20.3 million for each club.

     

     

    The bonuses for winning individual matches will actually go down, from €2.8 million per match to €2.1 million. But on the other hand, there will be more matches

  5. Saint Stivs on

    if celtic can qualify next season with direct entry –

     

     

    Fixed Group partcipation for 8 matches – €18.6 million = £15.88m

     

     

    Performance – 8 games best guess 2 wins and 2 draws – €6.2m = £5.3m

     

     

    Coefficient payout (30% of total) PLACED 30 FROM 36 in the rankings

     

    so 6 shares at €1.25m = 7.5m euros = £6.4m.

     

     

    Market Pool Scotland same value last season + 20% – €8,4m., = £7.1m

     

    Lets be generous and only we qualify -we get 7 million best half that is there are huns qualified.

     

     

    4 home games at £m each giving £12m ticketing and hospitality.

     

     

    I am skeptical on this, in theory we could have 2 unattractive fixtures at home, we wont sell them out.

     

     

    So a forecast, based on realistic past performances –

     

     

    The value of next seson participation would be circa – £46million (53 million euros)

     

     

    but the range could be £37m-50m)

     

     

    the £60m jackpot would need us to be in the last 16 qualifier round, do we see us being about 25th place in a 36 team table ? I dont.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Last season shared by 2 participants Celtic share was €3,650m.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Celtic payout €6.952m. = £5,940,000

  7. !!Bada Bing!! on

    The Seven on BBC Scotland channel, still showing the non penalty in the last huns game ,seriously?

  9. lafan on

    The players don’t deserve champions league football next year.

     

    The board certainly don’t want it.

  10. eratic on

    Hope DD wins his case.

     

    Guys done it all himself…….a self made man,

     

    Don’t understand people who knock successful businessmen,, usually just blatant jealousy , any money he does filter into other offshore territories ( if he does ) is all totally legal you’ll be glad to know !!

     

    Dare say he pays a fair bit of tax in the UK as well….

  11. Saint Stivs on

    Fairhill bhoy.

     

     

    That was not the point of the exercise.

     

     

    I am simply trying to get to the bottom of the “its worth 60 mullions” next season.

     

     

    people using that number in hotlines and call ins.

     

     

    culminating an eejit other night saying it is a swing of “120 mullions” if rangers qualify and celtic dont, and they will spend it all and dominate for the next x years.

     

     

    the reality is there is a gap in earning sure, this season celtic get over 32 million, but rangers cannot get that unless they win the europa.

     

     

    last season celtic 30 million, rangers 21 million.

     

     

    accuracy of reporting values would be nice.

  18. fairhill bhoy on

    SAINT STIVS @7-53

     

    To be honest I’m not sure what the point was.

     

    You seem to spend most of your time on here trying to dig up people you don’t agree with.

     

    Your childish attempt at trolling others on this site is poor.

     

    I know you don’t give two hoots what I think 😉

  19. Saint Stivs on

    is it a full moon, i was asked to provide what i thought the numbers are, so i did.

     

     

    is that ok with you all ?

  20. vinniethedog on

    Morton 2 Motherwell 0…pitch looks amaculate ….Kelly playing terrible in goals…always brilliant against us !!

  22. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Motherwell 2 down to Morton …

     

     

    … finally stop fannying about and play a four man move with three of four players taking one touch.

     

     

    Goal.

     

     

    Complicated game this football

     

     

    … Not

  23. Tontine Tim on

    VINNIETHEDOG on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 8:46 PM

     

     

    Morton 2 Motherwell 0…pitch looks amaculate ….Kelly playing terrible in goals…always brilliant against us !!

     

     

    *liam patrick kelly brother of livi defender sean kelly started his career with sevco, at the age of 10 so he has been well indoctrinated

  25. Turkeybhoy on

    OK with me SS.

     

    Very good work on the UEFA finances.Some people who have heads filled with Celtics finances,and our”70 Mullion”that permanent figure,for the past few years,surprisingly not too bothered about UEFAs mullions.

     

    Strange thigs,agendas.

  26. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Imrie going round the pitch exhorts to the fans ….

     

     

    “F***in C’mon”

     

     

    Classy

  29. ziggydoc1 on

    There’s only one way now. Every single game, every single fan, every single player, united, giving it totally ballistic. Full throttle, no pussy footing about, go for the jugular. See who can outscore who. Not my normal philosophy but needs must.

  30. glendalystonsils on

    I was just watching Kenny Miller on the telly the other night when a thought occurred to me . Well ,more of a question really …. did his face always look like that or did it get burned up in re-entry to the earth’s atmosphere after big Jozo’s tackle ?

  31. !!Bada Bing!! on

    The Lawellites trying to minimize the profits, to justify not spending money in quality players…..it’s not £38 million, its £26 million….meanwhile, we had Ralston, Welsh,Scales playing on Wednesday ,Scales has been VG BTW….

  33. 31003 on

    Remember James Corden doing a pre-match team talk to the England team? Funny as….but he hit a good few nails right on the HEAD.

     

    How good would it be if Brendan invited a fan into the dressing room before the St Mirren game?

     

     

    Me, “Right bhoys. YOU ARE CELTIC. They are St Mirren.

     

    You are far far far better football players than them. Show them. STOP fuckin about at the back. Pass FORWARD. Show them how good you REALLY are as individuals and as a team. Let’s show them what 1-2 touch football is all about. Let’s show them how to SHOOT at goal. Let’s show them what forward passing is all about. Let’s show them how to PASS through a low block. Let’s show them why were paid at least 5 times the wage you are paid. Let’s work hard OFF the ball. Let’s prove we’re the best in Scotland. GET OUT THERE AND EARN YOUR WAGES “

  37. 31003 on

    Matt…stop riding tackles…show a bit of spunk

     

    Bernabei….take 20% aff it son

     

    Callum….shout at the deckers when they feck up…show them your not happy

     

    Kyogo…..same as above

     

    Midfield…..just TRY passing in FRONT of your forwards

     

    Kuhn….one..just one pass back and you’re OFF

  38. Celtic Mac on

    !!bada bing!!

     

     

    As you pointed out earlier we have picked up £31 mill from this years CL, and as Saint Stivs has shown, we could pick up far more next season if, and it is an if, we qualify directly to the new CL format. And he has undersold the possible. We have taken our eyes off the prize, compounded by injuries, international football breaks, and a refereeing system that has resulted in key decisions being made that help our main rivals in the points chase. A cliche I know, but we are where we are, and everybody has to get on board, if we are going to move on up. Meanwhile Paul67 is laying it all on Brendan, PhilMac is blaming it all on the Lawwels, and JohnJames is laying it all on both Paul67 and the Lawwells. Each mentioned has to bear some responsibility, and not only bear it, but take it. Callum McGregor and the players too, at least we know how much it means to them, and to the support on Wednesday at the final whistle. Let us get back to the opposition fearing hearing the whistle that starts every game.

  40. 31003 on

    Brendan…..FFS SHOW A BIT OF FECKIN PASSION

     

     

    And give some instructions from the side lines now and again

     

     

     

    DESMOND …..GTF

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