St Mirren benefit from recency bias

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Celtic comprehensively destroyed St Mirren on 2 January, our last impressive performance against an SPFL club.  Since then, St Mirren have won three of their four games, conceding only once (to Newco).  Their last two wins, 0-3 at Easter Road and 2-0 home to Dundee, put them nine points ahead of their two city rivals and comfortably in fifth place in the table.

We should be aware of recency bias, though.  Before the winter break, St Mirren lost seven in nine games.  One of their wins since then was 1-0 at home to third tier Queen of the South in the last round of the Scottish Cup.  While Hibs were a close match for Celtic on Wednesday, their capitulation to St Mirren told more about their fragility than the victors.

Celtic’s loanee Kwon Hyeok-kyu has picked up a lot of the credit for St Mirren’s current form.  I am split between wanting to see how he performs against a top side and hoping his deal means he will be sitting in the stand tomorrow.

A few eyebrows were raised (including by me) when we signed the midfielder from the Korean second tier.  Although Brendan has yet to offer Kwon any gametime, I hear he thinks the player is a prospect.

Stephen Robinson had Saints press at Celtic Park earlier in the season.  After two wins, I expect nothing less on Sunday.  It should be an entertaining cup tie.

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370 Comments

  1. We shouldn’t have the suffocation of needing a win at all costs. A draw is ok. And St Mirren will have to attack as I’m sure they’ll not fancy a replay at CP.

  2. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    “We should be aware of recency bias, though. Before the winter break, St Mirren lost seven in nine games. One of their wins since then was 1-0 at home to third tier Queen of the South in the last round of the Scottish Cup. While Hibs were a close match for Celtic on Wednesday, their capitulation to St Mirren told more about their fragility than the victors”.

     

     

    In other words, St Mirren are pish and we should win comfortably.

     

     

    This is a tactic often used by the SMSM – denigrate the opposition before a ball is kicked. That way Celtic are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. A win should be taken for granted and does not warrant praise because the opposition are pish; a loss can be blown out of proportion and gives a stick to beat the team/manager because a win was a foregone conclusion against such pish opposition.

     

     

    The CQN editorial narrative has been obvious for some time and I have no problem with it (everyone is entitled to an opinion/agenda), but stuff like this is just lazy journalism.

  3. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    TAURANGABHOY @ 7:12 AM – terrific.

     

     

    David66 – this morning and every morning. You don’t like Lawwell.

     

    Message received and understood

     

     

    Paul67 – Respectfully, why are you ….

     

     

    “split between wanting to see how he (Kwon) performs against a top side and hoping his deal means he will be sitting in the stand tomorrow” ?

     

     

    IMHO, If he plays someone at Celtic should get sacked.

     

     

    If that appears harsh folks – please Google”Monaco Real Madrid 2004 Fernando Morientes”

     

     

    As for the game?

     

     

    Psychological dynamic is different for St Mirren.

     

     

    Cup ties have to be won. A home draw against Celtic in the league is a great result for ten SPFL teams and a terrible one for us.

     

     

    Not in the cup it ain’t.

     

     

    I hope Celtic use this to our advantage.

  4. Celtic received £31 million from CL this season, figures out today,not sure if gate money is included

  5. A cup game, away at another SPL team might be just what we need at this time.

     

     

    Tough but winnable (if we perform close to our potential), giving the team a breather from the pressures of the league and hopefully a confidence booster.

  6. THE BATTERED BUNNET on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 12:17 PM

     

    “Will Philvis ever return?”

     

     

    If he did who would he want to see made to consume bleach as he often would remark if memory serves?

     

     

    PRESTONPANS BHOYS on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 12:24 PM

     

    “Refreshing to have a piece which doesn’t criticise the manager 🤫”

     

     

    It does hint that the manager has backed the scouting team’s judgement of a player despite not playing him. “I hear he thinks the player is a prospect”. Shame he wanted first team quality not prospects for potential future years.

     

     

    I thought it might be an article on the managers latest comments slagging off the quality of the players at his disposal. Every time I think he is sounding a bit more focussed and team/club oriented he just can’t resist a wee self preservation dig at others to avert any focus on him / his playing system.

     

     

    QB

  7. Not confident at all about Sunday after two simply atrocious performances. I just can’t shake off a sense of impending doom, the like of which I have not felt since early in the Covid season. Hope to God I’m wrong.

  8. I’ve decided to take the last minute penalty against Hibs as a turning point, and we’ll start improving game to game

  9. !!BADA BING!! on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 12:46 PM

     

    Celtic received £31 million from CL this season, figures out today,not sure if gate money is included

     

     

    ——

     

     

    We use to joke about the Huns releasing financial statements after 5pm on a Friday to take attention off their precarious finances.

     

     

    We could very well be doing something similar today because we’re embarrassed by how much money we have !

  10. An Dun

     

     

    Nothing of the sort,last years interim report issued on 10/2.we are consistent,no narrative to adhere to.sorry

     

     

    HH

  11. The Huddle @ 12:56

     

     

    Good positivity, think I’ll join you.

     

    Could that wee slice of luck be just the spark we need?

  12. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    The debates on yesterday’s thread about how much the Champions League group stage is worth (£) was interesting.

     

     

    Lots of different views about how much.

     

     

    Suggestion: we agree the following ….

     

     

    If Celtic are Scotland’s only reps – it’s £22m

     

     

    If Sevco are …. it’s £80m

  13. GLENOWEN on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 1:14 PM

     

    “Good positivity, think I’ll join you.

     

    Could that wee slice of luck be just the spark we need?”

     

     

    Here’s hoping the players feel the same way! (thumbsup)

     

     

    We have no choice now but to hope for the best, try to keep the faith / stay positive and support as best we can.

     

     

    QB

  14. Tom McLaughlin on

    AN DUN

     

     

    There are no replays in the Scottish Cup.

     

     

    Sunday will be played to a finish.

  15. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    ▪︎All answers are goalkeepers▪︎Celtic connected▪︎

     

    1)1972▪︎leaves Celtic for Motherwel?

     

    2)1973▪︎Signed for £40,000 from Kilmarnock?

     

    3)1974▪︎Scores an o.g. in game v Airdrie?

  16. SS- don’t want to post a DR link

     

     

     

     

    And Celtic look will remain top dogs in the UEFA payday for this European campaign under Brendan Rodgers over. They failed to emerge from a group that included Atletico Madrid, Feyenoord and Lazio – but being in the group stage landed the club almost £31million.

  17. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Thank you to whoever posted link to Harry Brady’s Player Trading articles in Celtic Underground.

     

     

    Apologies – can’t recall who.

     

     

    Respect to Harry B.

     

     

    Really good stuff, well worth a read.

     

     

    I’d respectfully challenge one aspect of his data set … the 10-year player trading comparison with Ajax.

     

     

    I don’t doubt the factual accuracy but, IMHO, it does not provide full context.

     

     

    Specifically (during that 10-year period)

     

     

    Ajax won the league just four times. No way our fans would accept this.

     

     

    Report states Ajax make far more money player trading than us. TRUE

     

     

    But, if you overlay their player trading with their Champions League qualification (and associated revenue hike) ….

     

     

    … There’s been a recurring theme across these 10-years.

     

     

    – don’t qualify > sell players > make profit > money in the bank.

     

     

    In short their best financial performance regularly correlates to their worst onfield performance (don’t win league, no CL)

     

     

    Ajax Quick News might be in meltdown

     

    (I neither know nor care).

  18. !!bada bing!!

     

     

    Probably better waiting on Celtic FC Interim Report, which as AT points out is always around this time In February, but my understanding is that the £31 mill is a combination of payments from UEFA for CL Group Participation, and would not include revenue from our three home matches. They are probably worth around £3 mill plus a game.

  19. UEFA 2023/24 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PARTICIPATION PAYOUTS – PART 1

     

     

    For the 2023/24 campaign, competition organisers have announced the total purse for this season’s Champions League will stay the same as last season at €2.03 billion (£1.74bn/$2.19bn).

     

     

    Last season, first time winners Manchester City picked up around €80million (£68.4m/$86.4m) in prize money during the tournament as a whole

     

     

    Overall there are several different ways in which sides participating in the competition can gain prize money. The biggest wedge of money (55%) of the total prize pot is distributed amongst the clubs as a reward for their results in the competition as outlined below in the table. The other 45% of the pool is split across the complete 32 group stage participants in two separate ways.

     

     

     

    Group-stage wins €2.8m – x1 feyenoord = £2.4m.

     

    Group-stage draws €930k x 1 Madrid = £0.75m

     

     

    Reaching group stage €15.64m = £13.37m

     

     

    TOTAL CFC PLC PARTICIPATION AND PERFORMANCE PRIZE MONEY = £16,520.000