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St Mirren benefit from recency bias

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Celtic comprehensively destroyed St Mirren on 2 January, our last impressive performance against an SPFL club.  Since then, St Mirren have won three of their four games, conceding only once (to Newco).  Their last two wins, 0-3 at Easter Road and 2-0 home to Dundee, put them nine points ahead of their two city rivals and comfortably in fifth place in the table.

We should be aware of recency bias, though.  Before the winter break, St Mirren lost seven in nine games.  One of their wins since then was 1-0 at home to third tier Queen of the South in the last round of the Scottish Cup.  While Hibs were a close match for Celtic on Wednesday, their capitulation to St Mirren told more about their fragility than the victors.

Celtic’s loanee Kwon Hyeok-kyu has picked up a lot of the credit for St Mirren’s current form.  I am split between wanting to see how he performs against a top side and hoping his deal means he will be sitting in the stand tomorrow.

A few eyebrows were raised (including by me) when we signed the midfielder from the Korean second tier.  Although Brendan has yet to offer Kwon any gametime, I hear he thinks the player is a prospect.

Stephen Robinson had Saints press at Celtic Park earlier in the season.  After two wins, I expect nothing less on Sunday.  It should be an entertaining cup tie.

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  2. David66 on

    BACK TO BASICS – GLASS HALF FULL on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 12:42 PM

     

    TAURANGABHOY @ 7:12 AM – terrific.

     

    David66 – this morning and every morning. You don’t like Lawwell.

     

    Message received and understood.

     

    ———-

     

    Back to Basics that’s good unfortunately for you all I will never tire of calling that guy a Liar, Especially when people spout pish about him being a great guy, nothing is his fault, blah de blah de blah.

     

     

    D :)

  4. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    ●Celtic connected goalies●

     

    1)Part exchange for Andy Ritchie?

     

    2)First player to be signed by Mr.Stein?

     

    3)Became the first Celtic ‘keeper since Ronnie Simpson to play for Scotland at Wembley?

     

    4) Last player signed by Mr. Stein?

     

    Ready, Gary…..

  5. An Tearmann on

    WHAT IS THE STARZ on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 1:45 PM

     

     

    An Tearmann

     

     

    Really hope the Irish Times wins that case against Desmond.

     

     

    WITS i do too,prettystrange he is only one from original article claiming defamation.Having access to such ‘offshore accounting’ is the preserve of the superwealthy.The case will only shine a light on his dealings. Tax haven/distortions like most outed on Panama Papers show why gaps with rich and poor grow ever wider.Hope all good bout the ol town:-))

     

     

    Ps well done Irelands Basketball team

     

    https://twitter.com/RaggedTP/status/1755875356018397656?s=19

     

    👍

     

     

    HH

  7. garygillespieshamstring on

    1. Roy Baines

     

    2. John Kennedy or Bent Martin

     

    3. Ally Hunter

     

    4. Pat Bonner

  12. Tontine Tim on

    THE_HUDDLE on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 12:56 PM

     

    I’ve decided to take the last minute penalty against Hibs as a turning point, and we’ll start improving game to game

     

     

    *I must admit I have been very scathing on BR myself as I still hold grudges against the way he did his midnight flit and have voiced this on here and looked at our early form as the “new manager bounce” but that photie of him at the end of the game on Wed night showed that there was a bit of passion, MON, Lenny and Ange style, either that or he was pointing up tae the directors box saying I can still do it even without your help, no matter what if he does eff up IMHO he will NEVER work in top flight fitba again.

  20. garygillespieshamstring on

    Will Callum’s mask fit AJ?

     

     

    Will Boyd suggest opponents get in about him?

  25. Saint Stivs on

    UEFA 2023/24 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PARTICIPATION PAYOUTS – PART 2

     

     

    The other 45% of the pool is split across the complete 32 group stage participants in two separate ways.

     

     

    Coefficient payout (30% of total)

     

    Some 30% of the prize money (around €600m) is paid out to all 32 clubs in the Champions League group stage based on a coefficient algorithm that ranks their European performance over a 10-year period.

     

     

    The teams are then ranked according to this algorithm from No. 1 to No. 32, with bonus points given for hoisting European trophies, before the money is paid out in shares according to a team’s rank. The lowest-ranked team earns one share (€1.137m), while the top-ranked team earns 32 shares (€36.38m).

     

     

    ——————–

  29. Saint Stivs on

    Coefficient payout (30% of total)

     

     

    PLACED 26 FROM 32 in the rankings

     

     

    so 6 shares at €1.137m = 6.8m = £5,830.000

     

     

    If I have worked this our correctly our dropping 10 year co-efficient means less revenue this time in this payout as last seasons was 9m euros.

  31. Chairbhoy on

    God Bless Dermot Desmond, keeping the green flag flying despite the malcontents, begrudgers and naysayers…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  32. bournesouprecipe on

    Not the sharpest tool in the box Packy Bonner doesn’t know football rules. No wonder he got a job in the media.

  33. Saint Stivs on

    UEFA 2023/24 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PARTICIPATION PAYOUTS – PART 3

     

     

     

    Broadcast market payout (15% of total)

     

     

    An additional €300m (15% of the total purse) is made available as part of the broadcast revenue once all the broadcast deals are finalised across the continent.

     

     

    The national federation for each country represented in the UEFA Champions League is provided with a share of this money based on the proportional value of each TV market. Each national federation then distributes that money to the participating Champions League clubs based on:

     

     

    50% of the allocation to a national federation will be divided among the participating Champions League clubs from that nation based on fixed percentages determined by UEFA.

     

     

    The other 50% is paid out in proportion to the number of matches played by each club in 2023/24.

     

     

     

    ———————

     

     

    Market Pool Scotland same value as last season – €6.952m.

     

     

    Last season shared by 2 participants Celtic share was €3,650m.

     

     

    Celtic payout €6.952m. = £5,940,000

     

     

    so what we lost in 10 year seeding ranking we made up in being the only Scottish Particpant.

  34. Saint Stivs on

    2023/24 UEFA PAYOUTS TO CFC PLC –

     

     

     

    TOTAL CFC PLC PARTICIPATION AND PERFORMANCE PRIZE MONEY = £16,520.000

     

    Coefficient payout (30% of total) – PLACED 26 FROM 32 in the rankings = £ 5,830.000

     

    Market Pool Scotland same value as last season eltic payout €6.952m. = £ 5,940,000

     

     

    TOTAL £28,290,000

     

     

    OR 33 Million Euros depending on currency echange rates at time of payment.

  35. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    News of AJ’s injury not great.

     

     

    I’ve never known a season like this for injuries.

     

     

    It’s an opportunity for someone else.

     

     

    Over to you Tony Ralston.

  36. Prestonpans bhoys on

    SAINT STIVS on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 5:13 PM

     

     

    Good work on the prize money etc. Added to that will be ticket money and hospitality even a fag end calculation at the lowest … was the package £135? @ 62,000 is more than £8m

  38. Saint Stivs on

    So, just to pass the time –

     

     

    Celtic PLC report revenue in this way for annual report 2022/23 (

     

     

    The Group’s revenue comprised:

     

     

    The Group’s revenue comprised:

     

     

    Football and Stadium Operations 51.48m (£40m ticketing, £11m stadium operations wich i assume is hospitality)

     

     

    Merchandising 29,7m

     

     

    Multimedia and Other Commercial Activities 39,29m

     

     

    TOTAL 119,851

  40. Saint Stivs on

    Season Ticket holders can buy now a three-match package for these Champions League matched at Celtic Park, and they available online now with no additional booking fees, priced:

     

     

    Adult – £138 (£46 per match)

     

     

    Concessions – £108 (£36 per match)

     

     

    Under 13 – £96 (£32 per match)

     

     

    We give up approx 1,000 seats to uefa and sponsors for these occasions.

     

    another 1,000 seats behing the goals and lost to segragation,

     

     

    at a conservative estimate lets say all the season books take up their offer, even though we know there has been general sale for every game, as people cant afford the whole package but lets just guestimate. and assume away team also takes all their allocation.

     

     

    —————–

     

     

    Adult – £138 (£46 per match) x 60% of capacity = £4.8m

     

     

    Concessions – £108 (£36 per match) x 20% of capacity = £1.25m

     

     

    Under 13 – £96 (£32 per match) – x 20% of capacity = £1.1m.

     

     

    Ticketing sales revenue = £7.15m or £2.4m per game.

  41. PeterLatchfordsBelly on

    Glad it’s the cup this weekend. On current form every league game is a calamity waiting to happen. Less pressure on a cup fane and perhaps we’ll get an unexpected lift from a good performance.

     

     

    Idah might be the man to save this dreadful season. He certainly exudes confidence and he’s certainly a unit.

  42. PeterLatchfordsBelly on

    Couldn’t care less how much money comes in from the ECL. We won’t spend it on the pitch anyway. Or if we do we’ll continue with the failing strategy Harry Brady so expertly dismantled on Celtic Underground.

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