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St Mirren benefit from recency bias

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Celtic comprehensively destroyed St Mirren on 2 January, our last impressive performance against an SPFL club.  Since then, St Mirren have won three of their four games, conceding only once (to Newco).  Their last two wins, 0-3 at Easter Road and 2-0 home to Dundee, put them nine points ahead of their two city rivals and comfortably in fifth place in the table.

We should be aware of recency bias, though.  Before the winter break, St Mirren lost seven in nine games.  One of their wins since then was 1-0 at home to third tier Queen of the South in the last round of the Scottish Cup.  While Hibs were a close match for Celtic on Wednesday, their capitulation to St Mirren told more about their fragility than the victors.

Celtic’s loanee Kwon Hyeok-kyu has picked up a lot of the credit for St Mirren’s current form.  I am split between wanting to see how he performs against a top side and hoping his deal means he will be sitting in the stand tomorrow.

A few eyebrows were raised (including by me) when we signed the midfielder from the Korean second tier.  Although Brendan has yet to offer Kwon any gametime, I hear he thinks the player is a prospect.

Stephen Robinson had Saints press at Celtic Park earlier in the season.  After two wins, I expect nothing less on Sunday.  It should be an entertaining cup tie.

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  1. Weebobbycollins on

    31003…

     

    Studio versus live for me is like watching Celtic on tv versus watching at the stadium.

  3. 31003 on

    WEEBOBBYCOLLINS

     

     

    When I first hear a song, on the radio, live or in the street/pub….if I like it…that’s it. If I hear it any other way thereafter…it doesn’t sound right.

     

    Peter Frampton single “Show me the way, was recorded LIVE and pressed into a single. If ever I heard a studio recording of that song after that, with all the enhancements, I’d hate it.

     

    I think if I like a song the first time I hear it…if it changes for whatever reason…I’ll hate it…if that makes sense

  7. GFTB on

    SFTB 12.15am

     

     

    Enjoy your Saturday morning 5s .. bit of a poor comment about our manager being “full of himself” I would think most Celtic managers in my lifetime have had the exact same confidence… surely a prerequisite for the job

     

     

    full of himself … just fits others narrative

     

     

    100% behind our boss

     

     

    🍀

  18. Darwin on

    Those who advocate and repeat constantly the phrase “sack the board”, and there are many on this forum, I ask this:

     

    Specifically name the members of the board that you want to sack and why you want to sack each of them.

     

     

    Specifically name the new board members that you want to put in place – what their attributes are – what they would bring to Celtic, and exactly how and when the change could/would be brought about.

     

     

    *Where would the experienced Celtic-minded people be found and what experience of running a multi-million pound football club would they have?

     

     

    *Who or, what would take over the financing of new Celtic?

     

     

    *What banking facilities would new Celtic have?

     

     

    *Who would be the sponsors and commercial partners of the new Celtic?

     

     

    *How long would negotiations to change everything take?

     

     

    *What would happen whilst these negotiations are ongoing?

     

     

    *How many barren seasons would be acceptable as the new regime settles in?

     

     

    Those who want turmoil must answer specifically all of the above and remember that is much easier to tear down than it is to build up.

     

     

    The grass is not always greener – be careful what you wish for!

     

     

    There are plenty of examples just over the border of clubs with fifty times our turnover and remote owners from all over the world, failing miserably season after season.

  19. Hot Smoked on

    DARWIN on 10TH FEBRUARY 2024 6:33 AM

     

     

    I am going out now ( golf) but I will be interested in any responses to your post.

     

    Hail ! Hail !

     

     

    Cheerio for now.

  20. David66 on

    Good morning all from a -1 and feckin chilly Garngad

     

     

    “Let the people sing their stories and their songs” but not a bout the board.

     

     

    Doesn’t work.

     

     

    Sorry let fans have say on what they want.

     

     

    It’s this board that has put us in a position where we are nip and tuck with der hun and their complicit Men in black. Our board and junior bought shite/ projects, then proceeded to ban the GB and the bhoys joined in henceno atmosphere hence dropped points.

     

    Onto January where we need quality cover and 1 player who to me is still a project, failure again by board.

     

     

    Any sane person would think its self inflicted.

     

     

    Get the stats guys to compare with the season we lost the 10.

     

     

    Mmmmm

     

     

    Darwin sack every board member and starts fresh, 1 or 2 at a time.

     

     

    D. :)

  24. dessybhoy on

    Interested in why some people think we survive on desmond’s money, money he has put in has acquired him shares and I doubt he needs a season ticket to get into games or buys hospitality, no doubt he receives 6% on preference shares,granted self made billionaire but Celtic stands on its own 2 feet, McCann had his backing at the takeover but also 10000 small investors at £620 to rebuild the stadium. What other money does he put in if I’m mistaken? Lender of last resort maybe but it’s never been needed as we have had several share issues including to build Lennoxtown.

  26. Dexter P. Bampot on

    I want Holm to get a chance tomorrow. I think he’s quicker and more dynamic than Bernardo

  27. Dexter P. Bampot on

    Calmac being criticised this season. Yes he’s not at previous levels but he needs a winger or Bernardo/ORiley to take quick ball which should then be fired to Kyogo (or at least make space for a pass to him)

     

     

    It’s so fn static

     

     

    It shows how bright wee Jota was. He was always thinking- even when got a FK- remember how he’d always be rapidly over the ball or on the move? Class.

  30. garygillespieshamstring on

    I think DD underwrote the 2005 Lennoxtown share issue to the tune of £10 million and had to stump up the full ten million as the share issue was not the success it was hoped it would be.

  31. dessybhoy on

    You sure about that I bought shares as many other did,if he did it wasnt 10m as the whole thing[lennoxtown] was to cost 7.5m if i remember correctly.

  32. An Tearmann on

    .

     

     

    ERATIC on 9TH FEBRUARY 2024 7:49 PM

     

     

    Hope DD wins his case.

     

     

    Guys done it all himself…….a self made man,

     

     

    Don’t understand people who knock successful businessmen,, usually just blatant jealousy , any money he does filter into other offshore territories ( if he does ) is all totally legal you’ll be glad to know !!

     

     

    Dare say he pays a fair bit of tax in the UK as well….

     

     

    HH

     

     

    Eratic,

     

    No one is knocking Dermot,it most certainly is not envy or jealousy.i agree he is a successful entreprenuer.

     

    Yes, you dare to say he pays a fair bit of tax in the uk,(the case is in Ireland) does he pay what is laid out fairly by that countries tax rules?

     

    Why do those rich enough have the right to determine their own tax bill by putting money offshore? You or i do not have the right or access to do that(that would be great)

     

     

    The reason it is filtered offshore means the taxable element of that money is distorted meaning no receipt back in the country (ireland) that could go on public services there,instead of being offshore.

     

     

    If DD operates in the world of the free market,one of its pillars is perfect information,thats what the Irish Times disclosed,regarding the Panama Papers,

     

     

    As i said yesterday,it contributes to why there is an evergrowing gap between rich and poor,have and have not,they may be legal,rich lawmakers making laws for rich people and corporations not giving full disclosure,Its feral capitalism at play that only benefits the few,not us all.and we only have to look around our towns and cities to see the decay.

     

    HH

  33. garygillespieshamstring on

    Dessybhoy

     

     

    I think your price is correct but the cash from the share issue was also used to pay off debt.

     

     

    I’m not saying dd bought all the shares but my understanding at the time was that the plan was to raise north of the ten million.

     

     

    He underwrote ten million pounds worth of the ivalue of the issue and he had to pony up most if not all ifor the proportion he had agreed to underwrite.

  34. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Re share issues and ownership ….

     

     

    I asked on here a few days ago if anyone knew how to easily go about buying Celtic shares ….

     

     

    …. and if the dividend reinvestment scheme is still running.

     

     

    If anyone has answers they’d be gratefully received.

     

     

    Reason I asked first question – it recently struck me that my children (who are now adults) don’t own any Celtic shares.

     

     

    Our NY based twitter friend, JbluvsCeltic, made a good point recently which stuck with me.

     

     

    We’ve had no new share investment from the board or anyone else in last 19 years.

     

     

    If it were up to me?

     

     

    I think we should have a 1,000,000 shares issue every ten years

     

     

    – gives new generations chance for some ownership

     

     

    – 1 million new shares per decade is barely a dilution – so would not significantly reduce current ownership balance

     

     

    – Could come with a guarantee that all money raised goes to youth development (shot in the arm funding which insulates first team investment). At current share price £1.2m less cost of issue.

  35. dessybhoy on

    B2B

     

    The only shares that pay a dividend are Preference shares, 6% per annum, ordinary shares give you a Vote[ no laughing] at the AGM,no dividend, that’s my understanding of the sharesholding.

  37. Celtic Mac on

    darwin @ 6.33am

     

     

    “There are plenty of examples just over the border of clubs with fifty times our turnover…..failing miserably…”

     

    I’m guessing arithmetic is not one of your strongpoints…..

  38. Turkeybhoy on

    My problem is,this” Sack The Board” mantra,pumped out every day,by David 66,and a few others.Pointless.Who is going to sack them?.No one.Most clubs in the world would think we were a basket case.No manager of any standing would come near us,if the success we have had is not enough.He would be on a loser with our support.I have no love for the Board,in fact,they are an irrelevevance to me.Sorry.

     

    I So many clubs,don’t like their Board,but none of them have had the success we have had.

     

    Not going back to make a point,but I remember,a release from Celtic,under the Kelly mob,of a new signing.It turned out to be a guy called Hugh Maxwell bought from Falkirk.A CF,built like a Stork,with a Pigeon chest,who we paid £ 9,000,for.Never saw him again after that season.Look him up.The Jungle laughed like fek when he appeared.

  40. G Fearon on

    Darwin on 10th February 2024 6:33 am

     

     

    Sack the entire board and replace them with the IRA Army Council who are now at a loose end, they know how to deal proficiently with vast sums of money (procuring a speciality) and are quite adept at coming out on top against all odds.

     

     

    Hope that answers your question.

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