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The problem of relative poverty

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A CQN’er prepared this forensic analysis of the relative poverty of Newco (formally named for analysis) compared to Celtic.  It covers where they currently are and, more importantly, brings into sharp focus their financial projections for next season.

A storm is coming.

It’s International week, so it seems like a good time to look forward. Whilst most fans will be focusing on the matches remaining between now and the end of May, Managers and Football boards have to look further ahead. Budgets are being planned, appointments being considered and money, as always , is foremost in the thoughts of Directors and Managers.

Money, if you have it , can solve short term challenges, set in place long term strategy and is a mechanism to energise the fanbase. When you don’t have money, the problems and challenges are of a completely different nature. Celtic have money, a lot of money.

The cash balance on 31 December 2018 was £44m. Of course, some of that money has to be spent on wages and suppliers before the year-end. However, Celtic will also receive stage payments on Dembele sale circa €7m before 30 June (it’s common for large fees to be spread over 2 years), management team contract buyout of £9m, SPFL final distribution for 2018-19 season £2.2m, Valencia gate receipts and Hospitality £2.2m, and close to another £2m in match day ticket sales for the 11 SPFL home games taking place since 1 January.

None of this cash was shown in the Interim accounts. Payments will be received for players sold as well as payments made for players already purchased. The Year End cash balance will be a record high beating last year’s figure of £40m.

Everyone will have an opinion of where and how much we should invest, and that will be the subject of another article nearer the season’s end.

The challenges across the City are of a completely different nature. As always the demands there aren’t supported by financial reality, and having gone all in on Caixinha and Gerrard, a new and more challenging reality is looming.

Rangers posted an operating profit of £3.8 Million in the 6 months to 31 December 2018. The Rangers Chairman in his financial review that accompanied the interim accounts stated, “the Club is forecasting to be close to break-even for EBITDA for the year”.

I’m sure that was designed to provide comfort to shareholders and fans alike, however some context is required.

In the full year to 30 June 2018, Rangers produced an EBITDA of a loss of £4.18m. I guess that’s close to break even in some eyes. In the full year to 30 June 2017, Rangers produced an EBITDA loss of £105k. There is no question that is close to break even.

The problem though is that EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) is only part of the picture. The more relevant numbers relate to Operating Profit. That and Cash Flow tell a more complete picture on financial health.

From a 2018 EBITDA loss of £4.18 Million, Rangers produced an operating loss of £13.16m and from a virtual break-even 2017 EBITDA, Rangers produced an operating loss of £6.3m. The 2019 Operating result will be another significant loss.

REVENUES

·      Rangers had Revenue of £35m in the first half of the current financial year

·      Much of that Revenue will not recur in the second half of the year

·      There were 7 home games in the Europa League that will have generated close to £9.6m in gate money

·      Rangers earned £4.4m in Uefa prize money in the first half , nothing in the second half

·      Rangers will play 3 less home SPFL games in the second half resulting in a £3.1m reduction in gate revenue, as season ticket money is allocated to each individual game

·      With 10 less home games in the second half , Hospitality and Match day revenues such as parking, catering and programmes, will be down by possibly £3.3 Million

·      Other less significant revenues will reduce in line with less games played at home in the second half

·      It’s estimated Rangers will have revenues of close to £14.9m for the second half which is 12% growth on the second half of the financial year to 30 June 2018

EXPENSES

·         Rangers won’t have the cost of travel and accommodation for European away games. This should deliver a saving of around £1.5 Million

·         There are 10 less home games, which will deliver savings on part time staff, security, Police and utility costs. Should save around £400k

·         Pena is now gone. It’s unknown if he was paid off or fired without any contractual settlement. It’s anywhere between a £340k saving or if paid in full (unlikely) an extra expense of £2m. Assumption is he got nothing, so a saving achieved

·         Defoe and Davis won’t be cheap, and even Kamara will add a significant amount compared to the first half. Estimate an increase of £1.1m in player wages for these 3 for 6 months

·         The first team squad and the management team will have earned bonuses for Europa League Group entry. That won’t recur in the second half . Estimated at £1.5m

·         Nothing much happened in terms of players being bought, only Kamara for a small fee. Amortisation charge should be similar to the first half

·         All in all, expenses will have reduced by around £2.65m to £26.4m for the second half, making a full year total of £55.5m

The second half of the Year will deliver a large loss of over £14.5m, unless significant player sales are undertaken in June, making an annual operating loss in excess of £11m.

“Be moderate in prosperity, prudent in adversity”, Periander

Nobody could argue against the reality that Rangers have had a mountain of adversity to deal with since 2012. Equally, nobody is ever going to claim they have been prudent. They have borrowed money from the likes of Mike Ashley, raised significant sums in multiple share issues organised by

Charles Green and Dave King, been loaned large interest free sums by shareholders and borrowed at ferocious rates from Close Bros.

What they have never done is provide funding through operational profitability. They are now on their fifth manager since 2012 with none of the major trophies available in Scotland to show for all of the debt and losses incurred. They have only managed to reach one Cup Final in 21 attempts, and even then lost memorably to a Hibernian team inspired by individuals with strong Celtic connections.

The question for Rangers now is what appetite do the shareholders have for risk? There is very little opportunity to grow revenues. Ibrox is full for every game, season books are maxed out. It would take Champions League Group revenue to be a game changer. Celtic are 1/100 to win this year’s SPFL. Rangers are 25/1.

It’s highly unlikely Rangers will even have an opportunity to qualify for the Champions League Group stages before season 2020-21. Even that remains a long shot. In the meantime, the Rangers board have to decide how much appetite they have for risk.

This season is likely, as shown, to deliver an operating loss of £11.2m, which will be reduced by the £2.8m already banked as profit on the sales of Windass and John. Give Gerrard the same budget for 2019-20 and if he delivers the same result, then another £11m operating loss will be the outcome.

Selling Morelos for £20m is the stuff of fantasy . His record pales next to Dembele’s . In fact his record isn’t as good as Leigh Griffiths and we weren’t fending off bids for even 30% of what it’s claimed Morleos will be sold for. Fail to qualify for the Europa League Group Stages and the operating loss will be rocketing towards £22 Million. Who is going to cover that? Will the shareholders continue to fund ever increasing losses for no silverware, or will they prudently use whatever they raise in asset sales to fund some of the losses, and take a long term view by living within their means.. History would suggest they will roll the dice yet again.

As noted earlier, Celtic have very substantial cash reserves. Rangers do not. They effectively have no cash. They exist on Close Bros debt and shareholder loans once the Season Book money runs out, which with the significantly increased budget given to Gerrard, happens earlier than ever and without Europa League Group Revenue, could happen well before the next winter break.

Gerrard improved the European record significantly; he was aided though by as soft a draw in the qualifiers as was possible. There is a strong chance of much better opposition next season.

The Rangers Directors have provided the funds to cover shortfalls up to this point. They are now facing significant challenges. They have seen Gerrard in action for a year. His League and Cup record is no better than Pedro’s. The money from shareholders has all been spent. The Close Bros money will be gone in a few weeks and will then have to be repaid.

Celtic will rebuild in the summer. No guarantees it will be successful, but it will be funded by our own resources and financial reserves. Rangers have no resources of their own and absolutely no financial reserves. At some point those lending money and buying shares will realise this isn’t a calculated risk, it is extreme rashness.

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497 Comments

  1. DD- Aye Kirkton was indeed a happy place for us all, and Molly’s big dug chasing me from Apple raiding or jumping the back hedges. 😂

     

    It is a sad time and a horrible condition (Dementia). You have all the good times in your heart and like your dad you will never forget them.

     

     

    HH

     

     

    D. :)

  2. DELANEYS DUNKY on 23RD MARCH 2019 11:01 AM

     

     

    Bankie When the best person you will ever know. My mammy, disnae know who I am when I visit her, it breaks my heart. Dementia is so cruel for all

     

     

    *I don’t like tae use a statement i don’t really like but in this case I will, I know how you feel. My mother knew who I was but couldnae remember my name.

     

     

    I was 3.5k away and crossed the atlantic regularilly, I remember say tae my auntie, her wee sister and my godmother, that I would be glad when it was all over, she replied “don;t say that son, you’ve only got one mammy”, she’s right but that wee woman sitting there was my mammy in name only by that time.

     

     

    There’s no a day goes by when I don;t think about here. Most of us on here euligise our da;s as it was tem that

  3. Meant tae add that it was our da’s that introduced us tae Celtic but IMHO it was our mothers that made us.

  4. PETEC on 23RD MARCH 2019 1:17 PM

     

     

    Garry the Tricolour is Massive and Flying High in Dumbarton. We will never be defeated.

     

     

    *and when they reached the Vennel they got an awful shock as standing there undaunted were the Fenian’s of the Rock, my uncle was one of them.

  5. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Lennybhoy

     

    Thanks for that. And apologies to PM!

     

    Maybe over-doing the neutrality a wee bit! He does look seriously miserable!

     

    When I saw him looking away when Broonie got the cup I thought it was because he couldn’t stomach it. Now you have explained he’s working in security that explains a lot.

     

    Cheers again. You do tend to assume the worst any time that organisation is involved.

  6. !!Bada Bing!! on 23rd March 2019 2:07 pm

     

     

    DD- sorry for your situation, i might be in the minority here,but a when folk get to a certain stage,if the family agrees,a wee jag and a kiss goodbye would be much more humane, and ease the pain for everyone.

     

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————

     

    That certainly sounds reasonable. And, sooner or later, it may be on the cards. But, if legal, it would be open to abuse by the state and by individuals. The old are costly for the state and often inconvenient for relatives. So, it might be difficult to identify the real beneficiary of ‘mercy killing’.

  7. Mercy killing occurs more often than we think it does, morphine is just not a pain killer but also a death accelerator, the dosage can be upped when the needs justify this.

  8. !!Bada Bing!! on

    Fritzsong, – a lot of strands to the issue,as you say amigo,complicated and emotional. HH

  9. FRITZSONG.

     

     

    If that law comes into place there would a lot of people given the jab,which would be unlawful, in the eyes of many.

     

     

    About 18 years ago I was in hospital because my intestines stuck to my stomach,and they thought that I wouldn’t survive the operation,I was given the last rites,My sister in law told me this about two years ago, 18 years on I’m still here, but with the law that you are discribing, I wouldn’t have been,hope it isn’t passed.

  10. I happened to meet Steve Coogan a couple of times – in both cases he was quite a cool dude, bright and very approachable, his humour understated and quiet. The first time was in a new private members club in London, the second years later at a film festival in Schull. Both times I left with a very good impression of him – a solid bloke and someone good to have a pint with.

     

     

    HH.

  11. Tontine Tim…………

     

     

    Earlier.

     

     

    What you said mate……….!

     

     

    Spot on.

     

     

    HH.

  12. In other news- I’m watching The Miami showband massacre – in Ireland in 1975, very interesting.

     

     

    D. :)

  13. Full time EKFC 0 Cumbernsuld 0. So title celebrations delayed till Tuesday and another home tie against Spartans. Good game though.

  14. glendalystonsils on

    Sounds like Dedryck could well be out of the huns game . Hopefully Filip and Kris will return unscathed.

  15. Kieran Tierneys fav player is Dianbobo Balde.

     

     

    A great insight into the young Mans thinking.

     

     

    Noone gets past Kieran, he is pretty good going forward too!!!

  16. CQN down 1-2 to ross county on alba. Didny even know we were playing, and why wasn’t I asked?

  17. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Oldtim

     

    You may not be the oldest poster on Cqn but you are the eldest statesman because of your longevity on this dear place..

     

     

    I’m glad I called you today

     

    KTF ya old bugger

  18. BLANTYRETIM.

     

     

    I’m glad you called,it cheered me up tremendously, you cheered me up that much I’m actually tidying up my house, something my body wasn’t fit enough to do before you called, you brightened me up no end. Looking forward to meeting up soon, wee bevvy come to mind. cheers Stephen.

  19. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    OT,

     

    You should thank your lucky stars yer no a wummin, with all these recent falls you’d most definitely be pregnant by now, always confused me that, we bruise and break when we fall and they get pregnant.

  20. lets all do the huddle 🍀 on

    for the last 5 or 10 minutes of the game last sunday KT was fooked.

     

     

    not sure what they showed on the telly but he was totally done in

     

     

    could hardly stand let alone run but we couldnt take him off because we had used all our subs

     

     

    i was shocked he even made it out the country with the scotland squad

  21. Let All Do

     

     

    Aye i was surprised when i heard he was in the Scotland squad.

     

     

    Gettin a bit worried about him tbh

  22. Think KT resolved any of the guff around his condition……………rest will sort it.

     

    The surgery thing was pish, apparently.

     

    Kudos to the young superstar Tim for turning out for Scotland……….he’ll get no thanks from huns…….

     

    Robertson dingied The Kat with a sore tooth………..and seems to have been allowed to escape interrogative scrutiny………………

     

     

    As KT is a very , very valuable asset of Celtic and a fundamental fixture our Our Club, I ‘d expect him to be the subject of sleekit guff between now and The Untainted Ten.

     

     

    HH

  23. lets all do the huddle 🍀 on

    bankiebhoy1

     

     

    im not having a go at him for going with scotland during the week

     

     

    all im saying is he was totally done in towards the end of the dundee game

     

     

    and i didnt think there was any chance he would have played for scotland

     

     

    and he didnt

     

     

    im also worried about the number of games he plays

  24. Aye,

     

     

    The Bhoy clarified it himself………………….. Rest sorted it.

     

     

    I’d imagine the professional game at whatever Level requires a basic match-fitness that we can only marvel at.

     

     

    Here’s hoping all Tims return safe and sound from the International hiatus.

  25. come on bhoys, my late father would be 90 years old today, alas he was only 53 years old when cut down by that horrible disease lung cancer, so im asking for the missing names in the team he always taught me, his team, I can remember geatons lyons and Patterson kennoway hogg and morrison and that’s all. any help appreciated, is tontine tim about.hh.

  26. BT

     

     

    As you will know your mums passing will never leave you, 11yrs ago today the strongest wee character I have ever met passed, some say time is a great healer and they are actually correct they might be gone but they never leave us, couple of the older grandkids went to graveyard today up in Roy Croppies manor :-) and tomorrow would have been her birthday so me & the wee yin will make an appearance … the sadness is still there but the joy that so many of her kids, grandkids and great grandkids still talk fondly of her is a source of comfort, my own wee yin talks as if it was her best pal (she was the only one that didn’t meet her :-) Wasn’t going to post but read DD, BT and Tontine posting about their own mothers and as others have said our fathers only gave us Celtic our mothers were doing the main job :-)