Next goal’s the winner

411

Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.

My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.

An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:

“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”

So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.

The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.

Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.

Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity.  Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.

My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.

Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.

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411 Comments

  1. TBJ

     

    For the money he has wasted, young team or not, they are brutal, was delighted to see them get pumped.

     

    As for LvG, give me RD any day, seriously.

     

    He is another of they check book managers.

     

    HH

  2. weet weet weet(GBWO) on

    Did we not have a Norwegian guy that played for Wolfsberg

     

     

    Was that the front door or the back door ;(

     

     

    HH

  3. GM/TBJ

     

     

    Just thought it was worth mentioning. Our performances in Europe have been disappointing enough without dragging us into a discussion about a game between two other teams.

  4. TBJ says Wee Oscar Knox is in heaven with the angels on

    Tet

     

     

    They were going on about young martial and young depay. Cost them a fortune to sign them .

     

     

    Juan mata cost about £20m and not much change of that for fellato … is that the right spelling for the big Belgian lavvy brush?

     

     

    Throw in swine steiger and de gae and not much change from 100 million

     

     

    They could use the boy blackett back in January. .. please

  5. Sips

     

     

    According to my calculations of transfermarkets valuations of the Wolfsburg starting 11, i reckon they were accumulated for the princely sum of 91.35m.

     

    Man Utds starting 11 tallied up to 141.4m but that excluded Varela as he was not on their list.

     

     

    Different world.

  6. Saint Stivs on 8th December 2015 7:45 pm

     

     

    I logged into mqn there.

     

     

    Masonic quick news.

     

     

    New article.

     

     

    Next goat’s the winner

     

     

     

    ========================

     

     

    ;)) Very good.

     

     

    Let me fix it for you…

     

     

    ‘I logged into mqn there.

     

     

    Masonic quick news.

     

     

    New article.

     

     

    Next ON the goat’s the winner’

     

     

     

     

    ————————–

     

    Philbhoy, earlier, cheers – wee one recovering, leg mending well; back at gymnastics tonight so approaching full fitness in time for Santa.

     

     

    ————————–

     

     

    Regards Malmo – back when we went 2-0 up and then johansen almost got a third, after they cleared the resultant corner and moved up the park a bit I was watchign their back four from high up behind them in the Lisbon.

     

     

    Two of them glowering and sniping at each other, the other two shoe-gazing and desperately wanting out of the place, and their goalie, hands on hips, deflated and head-shaking.

     

     

    They were beaten.

     

     

    We could have taken 5 or 6 off them if we’d kept pressing, kept at them.

     

     

    I said as much to my bro and my mate with me – seen and played enough to recognise a defeated side.

     

     

    But we relented, let them get a breather, get a foothold and played to those percentages the manager so loves, territory, possession, passes, but no penetration, looking to take a 2-0.

     

     

    Instead of sensing the emotion of the game and burying them as they expected we let a beaten side recover and regroup. We failed miserably in many aspects over that tie but the most crucial was in failing to smell blood and kill them off when they were waiting for it, ready for it, and acceptant of it.

     

     

    Real Madrid played to the percentages tonight too – shooting about a hundred times and picking up eight.

     

     

    If only. And no, I doubt we’d have been humped so severely.

  7. Sandman…Poor to Average teams take 2 off us in Europe As A Given…A better Team like Real….start at 3 For Sure Then Pray For the Final Whistle…It Would be A Longgggggg Night..Believe..

  8. “Poor to Average teams take 2 off us in Europe As A Given”

     

     

    Bgx,

     

     

    But they don’t though do they.

     

     

    Well I spose they do if you along with the lie that it’s only pub teams that we play in Europe.

     

     

    I’ll give you that an average side has been taking two of us in many a euro game, it’s not good enough and we really need to keep things tighter but Imo it’s utter bollox to say poor teams take two as a given.

  9. Ah the old “we beat them and then them beat they others so we should skoosh they others” syndrome.

     

     

    What happened to the Dukla money?

     

     

    Was at the ECWC 1st leg semi Liverpool 1-0 game in 1966 and my Uncle Packy was convinced there was 90,000 at CP that night.

     

     

    So what happened to the Liverpool money too?

     

     

    NOWA

  10. Crowd capacity at Celtic Park in the sixties was 92,000 for afternoon games and 72,000 for evening games.

  11. Good morning CQN

     

     

    Not Celtic related…………..well i do have a t shirt with john Lennon and Jinky on it does that help

     

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007rm1d

     

     

    An in-depth portrait of John Lennon, told through the audio of Jann Wenner’s seminal 1970 New York interview with Lennon for Rolling Stone magazine.

     

     

    It’s 1970 and John Lennon is about to release his first solo album. He’s not long emerged from months of Primal Therapy with its creator, Arthur Janov and he’s about to give his first major interview with Rolling Stone magazine. In the interview, he’ll talk openly about his solo career, the break-up of the world’s most famous band, his marriage and a lot more besides.

     

     

    Wenner and Yoko Ono also look back on the event, but the focus is very much on Lennon, who seems energised by what he sees as his freedom from the Beatles.

     

     

    It’s John Lennon at his most honest – and on occasion, his most abrasive.

     

     

    There is frequent use of strong language.

  12. Still dark and dreich in Bishopton.

     

     

    Her Bo I guess is sleeping off a massive shift. He seemed on the blog for 48 hours solid.

  13. This mornings gossip.

     

     

     

    image: http://cdn.videocelts.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/spfl.jpg

     

     

    spflThe SPFL have hit back at Ann Budge claiming that the Hearts chief was consulted about changes to the format for the League Cup.

     

     

    Neil Doncaster spoke yesterday about the issue with details released on the SPFL website late last night.

     

     

    Earlier today Budge, and Motherwell owner Les Hutchinson, claimed that she was only made aware of the changes hours before they were published but the SPFL have denied that was the case.

     

     

    In a statement to the BBC they claimed: “This subject was widely trailed at general meetings where both Hearts and Motherwell were present, over the past year.”

     

     

    Earlier Budge had said: “I would liked to have known a little bit more about them before they were publicly announced. They were all things that were mooted before, but in terms of a total package being put together it wasn’t something most of us were aware of. So I haven’t had a chance to examine whether I think it’s the right way forward.

     

     

    “I know it will influence clubs financially, potentially in contract terms with players, and the fact that we haven’t had a chance to think these things through is a bit of a negative. In saying that, I’m all for change, we do need change.

     

     

    “We’ve talked about a winter break, we’ve talked about summer football, this is the beginning of something. So I’m not saying it’s wrong, just that I would have liked to have known more about it before it was announced.”

     

     

    Having been contradicted by the SPFL the next move is in Budge’s court.

     

     

     

    Read more at http://videocelts.com/2015/12/blogs/latest-news/spfl-hit-back-at-budge-claims#lJvtrejkyVTcVsFP.99

  14. From Celtic Fanzone

     

    A Funding Farce!

     

    It would be interesting to see exactly how much in TV revenue the new club has received in it’s three year existence.

     

     

    The tax paying (new concept at Ibrox) publicly funded BBC have certainly made a tremendous effort to swell the coffers at Sevco by showing as many of their games as possible.

     

     

    And now Sky have jumped on the bandwagon!

     

     

    Broadcasting the Scottish Cup tie Sevco v Cowdenbeath at 1pm on January 10th, is nothing more than a funding exercise to keep the lights on at the loss making business.

     

     

    Sky know the good ship Sevco is floundering, who knows they might even be in administration by the time the game is played, they also know that the tie without TV money would have made another hole in the already depleted coffers.

     

     

    What both the BBC or Sky don’t know or seem to care about, is every time they are seen to bend over backwards to suit one club, they are alienating the fans of the other 41 clubs.

     

     

    Fans can see for themselves what’s happening, so when it come to renew their subscriptions, in Sky’s case, they might just take their business elsewhere.

     

     

    Is it really worth it?

     

     

    P.S. before anyone points out that the Stranraer v Celtic games follows the Sevco game at 3.30pm, I know, point being the Celtic game would be broadcast live anyway, as we’re away from home.

  15. Ronny’s Managerial Advice From McCall The Misfit…

     

    Categories : Celtic News

     

     

     

     

    Another Media Muppet With Agenda!

     

    As I was working away, around 4.30pm I caught the news bulletin on the radio, Smooth Radio I’m sure it was. After reading the man headlines, the broadcasters sport summary nearly caused me to crash my car.

     

     

    His ‘news’ was former Sevco caretaker manager Stuart McCall said ahead of Celtic’s Europa League match against Fenerbache on Thursday that Ronny Deila will need to win the treble to keep his job!

     

     

    Yip, a former manager who has won exactly feck all has the audacity to ‘advise’ Celtic double winning manager Ronny Deila what he needs to do to stay in the Celtic hotseat.

     

     

    McCall, who was once quoted as having ‘goosebumps’ during his calamitous stint in charge at Ibrox is currently without a full time position, something he might consider before shouting his mouth off.

     

     

    Ronny, on the other hand has won the Premier league titles in Norway and Scotland, and his side…

     

    CLICK TO TWEET

     

    Unfortunately, the media have set this ‘treble or sack’ narrative with the sole objective of turning the support against the manager. Their claim that he SHOULD be winning the league given his resources was never used against Super Salary while he was in charge of the Bigotdome, or even used against the Warbmeister, Magic Hat or not.

     

     

    Real Celtic fans can see through this smokescreen.

     

     

    What’s the saying, Nero fiddles as Rome burns?.

     

     

    I’m sure I can smell smoke coming from Edminston Drive….

     

     

    McCall on one of his better days…

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Celtic News

     

     

    Spread the Word, like or share this page, your friends will also love it and thanks for it.

     

     

     

    Posted on : December 8, 2015 – Last updated on Dec 8, 2015

     

    Tags: Celtic Fanzone Celtic Football Club Media Muppet Ronny Deila Stuart McCall

     

     

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  16. Some interesting, some BS.

     

    Ronny Deila knows what Celtic need to get into the Champions League

     

     

    Celtic’s Champions League and Europe League voyage has been terrible this season as they failed to qualify from Playoff of UCL and had a lack of success in UEL as they were unable to register a single win.

     

     

    Ronny Deila’s team will travel to Istanbul on Thursday night and try to make his first win at European competitions this season despite having no chance to qualify for the group stage.

     

     

    The transfer window opens in one month, and Hoops boss is planning to sign quality players to make his team stronger for next season and get into the Champions League competition.

     

     

    “It’s clear to me what I need to improve next season,” Deila said. “People talk about only defending, but we have to make the whole squad stronger.

     

     

    “It’s about developing the players who are here and adding some who can make us even more active. This transfer window in January could be very important, but it’s not just about getting new players in – it’s about getting the right ones too.”

     

     

    Source: hitc

     

     

    Celtic are on the verge to complete deal with Aston Villa striker!

     

     

    Scottish reports are claiming that Hoops boss Rony Deila will travel to Upton Park to complete January swoop with Aston Villa’s outfavor triker Libor Kozak.

     

     

    The 26-year-old Czech international has suffered from injuries since making a £4.6m move to the Villans from Lazio in 2013 and has played only 48 minutes for Premier League side this season.

     

     

    Celtic boss was in the Villa Park directors box to watch Kozak inspire Villa’s under-21s to a 2-1 victory over Derby County and reports suggest the Scotsman will travel again to lure player at Celtic Park.

     

     

    The Czech Republic international forward was close to joining the Scottish champions in the summer but decided to stay at Aston Villa.

     

     

    Source: HITC

     

     

    The former Fulham and Wigan midfielder regrets not signing for Hoops!

     

     

    The former Wigan and Fulham midfielder Jimmy Bullard has revealed his regrets not to signing for Celtic back in 2010 as he was close to agree loan move to Celtic Park.

     

     

    Last Week Bullard went in Glasgow to take part in Soccer Am’s You Know The Drill challenge and after that during his interview with Scottish press he admitted his regrets.

     

     

    “I had a lot of things going on. My missus was pregnant at the time and, you know what they’re like, in your earhole.

     

     

    “It was a loan deal so it was quite a difficult deal to get done and, to be fair, it was one of them where, at the time, it didn’t really suit me. I had a load of difficult things going on.

     

     

    “But now, coming out here, I’m gutted – it’s probably my only regret in football because I’d have loved to play here.

     

     

    “Lenny was here at the time, he’s a great man. I went up to Bolton to see Lenny and we did a You Know the Drill with him.

     

     

    “I was just gutted. Now, some nights I’ll go to bed, to all you Celtic fans, and I do regret not signing.”

     

    Source : Scotsman

  17. Hopefully the rumour of signing a striker who has played 40 odd minutes for a very poor villa team in 2yrs is nothing more than paper talk.

     

     

    But he does seem to tick all the boxes for our usual strikers.

  18. Why have Rangers no been banned yet ?

     

    When will the Internet Bampots hunt down and, exit the tories off the Celtic board / hierarchy ?

     

    When will Ronny get the bullit ?

     

    When will John Collins be given the ok to put a Celtic team with the Collin’s panache onto the pitch ?

     

    Ronny’s hauding everything back….shooting fish in a barrel disny coont!

     

    When will the new Jungle area be built ?

     

    When will we be allowed to see the best of Ciftci…played in a Celtic team with ‘two’ strikers ?

     

    MO’N went to ibrokes on beachball Sunday…parked ‘two’ banks of four buses and, still played with ‘two’ strikers.

     

    Having said that….if, MO’N had played the beachball Sunday tactics in Seville…..?

     

    ….oot, like a dug chasing cars……

  19. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    TD67. The King and Ashley court case has been put back until tomorrow Thursday I have no idea why. H.H.

  20. West End of East End on

    I see this morning that Doncaster is talking about a 14 team league for season 16/17. Close championship title race so let’s get Plan B out there pronto….

     

     

    source: Scotsman..

  21. Joe Fillipi

     

     

    I have no idea why the court case has moved, however I firmly believe that Law students must spend most of their time at Uni turning up for Lectures only to find that they have been moved to later in the week, month, year! Thus the course actually prepares them really well for their chosen profession :-)

  22. Seriously- how much is it costing the public purse to accommodate these endless ‘turn up for 10 minutes’ and arrange a new date legal proceedings – it is never ending

  23. My friends in Celtic,

     

     

    Imo the smart thing for us is is to preserve with Ronny et al.

     

     

    Results elsewhere have shown that appointing a tried and tested manager and giving him mega bucks is no guarantee to success or even progression.

     

     

    HH to all Bhoys and Ghirls no matter who, what or why.. It’s who we are, not what we are.