Penalties, systematic advantages, practice, always celebrate


Penalty competitions are not decided by random luck.  Teams from higher divisions win against lower division opponents more often than the reverse, by 8 percentage points.  That advantage pales into insignificance compared to the benefits of going first in a penalty competition.

A 2010 study published in the American Economic Review found a systemic first-mover advantage.  Teams going first in a penalty competition won on 60% of occasions.  The study found players had more success taking a kick that would put them into the lead, than when they were merely drawing level.

The difference was most pronounced comparing a kick to win a competition, which had a 92% conversion rate, with a kick to avoid defeat, which was successful on 62% of occasions.  This is a manifestation of Loss Aversion.  The fear of losing something hugely impacts our behaviour, far more than the prospect of winning does.  I could get distracted here and say the fear of losing 10-in-a-row took hold at Celtic Park, at the cost of where heads should have been.

Another 2010 study examined Emotional Contagion and penalty competitions.  Players who celebrated after their kick were more likely to be on the winning side than those who quietly returned to the centre circle.  Specifically, a player who immediately follows an opponent that celebrates extravagantly is more likely to miss than when this factor is controlled for.

This study’s conclusion is quite fascinating, “that emotional contagion is an important process in the context of elite sport performance.”  From all these years writing and reading CQN, I could suggest that emotional contagion works in all aspects of life.  It is a real thing that has an impact on those around us.

A 2012 article in Economic Inquiry promoted a tweak to penalty competitions.  Instead of Team A always kicking ahead of Team B, it suggested Team A – Team B, then Team B – Team A, or ABBA, not ABAB.  The ABBA system has been trialed and proven to eliminate the first-mover advantage, however, various authorities have thought it too confusing for fans!

Practice is a whole other area, one that was rejected on these shores for many years.  The challenge here is that the problem for an elite professional is not to kick a ball 12 yards, but to do so in acute circumstances that are impossible to replicated on the training field.

A 2010 study out of University of Plymouth found that practice through Functional Imagery Training was found to improve penalty kick outcomes (other types of practice, which were used as a control, did not).  So practice, but only if you know how to practice.

I also read a study that found if you are facing your own fans you are more likely to win a penalty competition, but I can’t find it……

We put a lot of work into finding advantages at Celtic.  Improving penalty outcomes is one of the clearest benefits we can achieve.  It is a bit too late for others.

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  1. Sláinte Ange on

    For a club like Aston Villa, it could mean an extra £12m if they can lift themselves from 14th to 10th on the final day.


    But it ain’t gonna happen – City’s title.

  2. IniquitousIV,



    I have no real interest in any Womens fitba.



    I hope All Womens fitba takes off but for me it disnae interest me in the slightest.




  3. Grand Day To Be A Tim,



    GENE @ 5:26 PM,



    Yes, it was tall ask but they made a good account of themselves. Those Wembley trips give the town a boost and there’s always next season.



    Good luck to the Vale, next week!!



    Hail Hail

  4. Sláinte Ange on

    Good shout on Gavin Bazunu (sorry forget who from).


    Question is would he want to be understudy to Joe Hart or play every week in hope of making it with Man.City?

  5. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    Came across an old newspaper cutting pre 1970 with headline Billy McNeill will make history.It explains that Billy will become the first soccer player to present a trophy to any gaelic team.The match is sponsored by the Glasgow GAA board,the chairman is Father Batty Burns of St. Michael’s Parkhead.The two teams involved Castleblaney Faughs and Sneem ( Kerry) face each other at St.Aloysius playing field,Millerston.After the game the teams will be the guests at the Glasgow Co board at the dinner in Wylie Hall Parkhead.


    Another first for Big Billy.

  6. This mornings “reports” suggest the rainjurz take thur customary early lead in the Close-Season championship.


    Shirley Bassey streaking ahead in the stratospheric – sly’s the limit, when valuin’ the big chap apparently…………..



    Keep yer eyes peeled for wee Buuuulllly shakin’ of his injury issuesonly to fall prey to a bad dose o’ “rainjurzitis”








    I am sure you are in complete control of your emotions . Even so, I would recommend ignoring the Close Season Championship reports. I can tell you now that THEY will sell players for zillions of pounds, bring in players who have never been to Scotland but are life-long `Rangers` fans and were rated incredibly highly by their selling club who couldn`t hold onto said player because of the aforementioned love of the Glasgow Giants.

  8. Hot Smoked…………….






    It’s like deja-vu…all over again!




  9. In new levels of hun pr, Clyde Superscoreboard exclaimed that they were Scottish Cup ‘Champions’. Many have pointed out that, they simply said ‘winners’ for St Johnstone and us, apart from the fact you never say cup ‘champions’….. Either they’ve got something on all these media outlets which they are leveraging to get free pr or the smsm staff whom are supposed to have journalistic integrity are simply supporters who got lucky……at every level from editor down to social media….



    Anyway what this tells us is we’ve done exceptionally well this to cause such made up cr*p. No amount of spin can replace being league Champions and automatically qualifying for CL 😁🍀

  10. We all need to relax & be happy, WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS.


    We start our defense of our Title on 30th July, Fixture List will be out on the 19th June & we will know our first opponents.


    Celtic Park will be throbbing and the Celts will win. You read it here first.


    However in the meantime the MSM & Co. will try to play havoc with our heads,


    Don’t allow them to succeed, Trust Ange.

  11. MARTIM1980 on 22ND MAY 2022 11:18 AM



    ‘Either they’ve got something on all these media outlets which they are leveraging to get free pr or the smsm staff whom are supposed to have journalistic integrity are simply supporters who got lucky…’






    I’d suggest it’s something more subtle, more insidious and more powerful than that. Something analogous to, or possibly an example of, cultural hegemony.



    ‘In Marxist philosophy, cultural hegemony is the dominance of a culturally diverse society by the ruling class who manipulate the culture of that society—the beliefs and explanations, perceptions, values, and mores—so that the worldview of the ruling class becomes the accepted cultural norm.[1] As the universal dominant ideology, the ruling-class worldview misrepresents the social, political, and economic status quo as natural, inevitable, and perpetual social conditions that benefit every social class, rather than as artificial social constructs that benefit only the ruling class.’



  12. ERNIE LYNCH on 22ND MAY 2022 11:26 AM



    Re Cultural Hegemony



    Could easily be such, just difficult to believe it’s still the case. Very sad if true.

  13. MARTIM1980 on 22ND MAY 2022 11:41 AM



    I am certain it is still true and I can honestly say that I have long held that view without having first read Marx.

  14. “CORKCELT on 22ND MAY 2022 11:25 AM


    However in the meantime the MSM & Co. will try to play havoc with our heads,”


    I agree…..and believe the easiest way to prevent that havoc is to avoid the MSSM as much as possible and to ignore it when avoidance is not possible.



    I once gave my pupils an article to read. After said reading, I asked how many felt that the main character in the story `hated` cats. 100% ( in several classes) all thought he did.


    I then stuck a ten pound note on the blackboard ( it was white, really ) and said the first person to find the part of the article which actually said that the man even disliked cats would `win` the money.


    Naturally, no one could find proof.


    Even so, they all read the article ` and made up their own minds ` !




    PS One pupil, a good guy, didn`t take part. As the others were searching, I asked him why he wasn`t. He said,` If there was any chance of finding proof, you wouldn`t have put the tenner on the board.` Clever lad.

  15. There is much talk of *Rangers on here at times and that is understandable throughout the season. Scottish football is a two-horse race and therefore everything & anything Ibrox does directly/indirectly affects us, whether we like to acknowledge it, or, not.



    However we have a long close season ahead and the media will look to fill the gap with all matter of rumours & stories, and most will involve *Rangers…it has started already. Strange that although parts of the Scottish media have restricted, or, no access to Ibrox, it falls over itself to provide blanket coverage of a favourable nature – plainly all about pandering to the majority.



    I have no real interest in what *Rangers do until firstly, they show up ‘ready for action’, in the CL qualifiers, because if they do qualify it will affect our payout to some extent, and secondly at the start of the domestic campaign.



    I don’t expect them to be appreciably weaker, however I do expect us to be noticeably stronger, ready for a respectable showing in the CL/EL and of course to strongly defend our title at home.



    I’m not much fussed by domestic cups, i.e. League, or, Scottish – we’ve probably had our fill of trebles for the time being – the League title & Europe must be the priority.



    The Ibrox club have shown that progress can be made in the EL with a limited & workmanlike side -we must, and will expected to, now do likewise; hopefully with a more talented but no less motivated squad.



    So no more from me on here till deep into July – perhaps CQN should have a close-season and allow posters to evaluate their performance during this season….a time for sober reflection perhaps! HH

  16. JHB on 22ND MAY 2022 11:56 AM



    I more or less agree…..apart from not winning the Cups !



    ” So no more from me on here till deep into July ”



    Expect a few comments :-))


    Cheerio for now.

  17. HOT SMOKED on 22ND MAY 2022 11:45 AM


    ERNIE LYNCH on 22ND MAY 2022 11:26 AM



    Deep rooted then, like Juventus (who are essentially Fiat and therefore ‘Italy’ ) when they doped their players and currupted referees.



    Except, here we’re essentially still considered even just by perception, as immigrants, Catholic and Irish so therefore, in their supremacist mindset, we are still the underclass.



    If they take that mindset, then they can continually justify tax dodging, financial doping, cheating, corrupting referees and the wildset pr lies you will ever see.



    Even better we still win because, essentially, we’re not supposed to 😁🤣😂

  18. 2 or 3 separate reports of the final yesterday in the Mail on Sunday today


    Each report “amazed” at, and lauding The Rangers players stamina levels.


    I think the reporters are questioning them without actually “questioning” them, if you get my drift

  19. The champions league group should provide celtic with about 24 million vs the europa league. On top of that 6 million will be paid for the 2 games in Australia during the world cup.



    If rumours are to be believed we got an additional 2 million from ajer staying up, between 1 and 2 million again for christie going up and 600k for doak going to Liverpool. Anything between 3.6 to 4.6 million.



    There will likely be a bonus payment from adidas for champions league group stages participation. Merchandising will also increase due to champions league group stages participation.



    We will be saving big wages from bitton and rogic leaving us. Forrest will be on less wages now the new contract Is signed.



    I can’t see mccarthy wanting to see out the end of his career on our bench with no games so can see him moving on. Despite what some think we will likely be able to recoup decent money for jullien, boli, soro and ajeti etc.



    Bottom line is there is no good excuse for celtic not to add another 3 or 4 first team starters who can push the core group of players who have forward on top of jota and ccv. If ccv and or jota leaves you can add them on top of the,Lb, Lcb,Cm box to box and winger we need.

  20. Weebobbycollins on

    “So no more from me on here till deep into July ”



    Post of the day. Please let it be true!

  21. Ernie



    Cultural hegemony



    No,Ernie Marxism has zero to do with your crowd of fawning fascists looking to forward your marketed brand of socialism.



    Be Scotland no power



    And you fawning fascists nod wink and do zero in the face of fascism coming from the other cheek on your ass.







    “The othering- like with racist Tams team of trolls here book,them,us,we iñ their vermin racism





    Follows on from Mhairi Black talking of fascism



    It’s strange how you unionists don’t like being called unionists- no union no access rto power.



    Oh to be the tory leader of a Labour majority Council.


    Your dieing.


    Your union is a carcass



    But keep espousing every theory to fit your impotence



    No union,no power.ever. keep squealing.




  22. its took a lot of years to realise but the main prize will always be the league title , cup wins are a nice day out but being champions is No. 1

  23. JHB



    So no more from me on here till deep into July – perhaps CQN should have a close-season and allow posters to evaluate their performance during this season….a time for sober reflection perhaps! HH






    Piss off.

  24. Gene



    Good luck to Port Vale



    I hope they prevail for you




  25. AN TEARMANN on 22ND MAY 2022 12:56 PM



    Not sure what any of that Sean Clerkin style moon howling rant has to do with what I posted, but I suppose if it make you feel better that’s OK.



    Must dash. Train to catch. It’s leaves shortly and it’s the last of the day.

  26. why is the new club not getting a ticker tape open bus family day parade down paisley road west ?



    being the champions of a cup in only your 12 year of existence is something special.



    aye i know the irish club did it in four, but thats way back then.



    this is bigger than lisbon.