I want to take a look at what Uefa might do this week that could have an impact on others, as well as our finances. Expect lots of news from Uefa, who have a videoconference on Wednesday and Thursday. We should learn how last season’s Champions and Europa Leagues will conclude, what next season’s qualification competition will look like and the calendar of dates for next season, with guidance on transfer windows.
A relatively minor point with more bearing in Scotland will be discussed on Thursday, how Financial Fair Play (FFP) will be enforced with respect to the crisis. You will remember we discussed Newco’s position with respect to FFP in a lengthy article in February. Without revisiting detail, the scenario required them to sell significantly before the 30 June financial year end to prevent them breaching FFP regulations.
FFP breaches do not instantly or automatically lead to disqualification from Uefa competition, but it would require the club to take “rehabilitative action” or else face consequences, including the ultimate Uefa sanction. Rehabilitative action means cutting costs, significantly so, in the case of Newco.
Current FFP rules allows for exemptions due to exceptional circumstances, which the current crisis certainly is. The process effectively adds-in revenue or subtracts costs you would otherwise see were it not for the exceptional circumstances, so in theory, Newco could claim allowance for a few lost revenue (although unlike Celtic, this will be very limited as they did not offer refunds).
We have to hope that no substantive changes are made to FFP rules.
Scottish football was a different place when we looked at Newco’s finances in February. Celtic’s interim accounts to 31 December showed £32m in the bank, we were on our way to nine-in-a-row and finances were very stable. 10 of the 12 others in the Premiership were living within their means and we had a new TV deal to look forward to. Since then, red ink has bled everywhere.
Our operating expenses for the first 6 months of the financial year were £7.6m per month. The manager, coaches and execs have taken pay cuts, while furloughed staff costs are met by the taxpayer, but I expect the deferrals players took will all have to be paid by the time this financial year closes on 30 June. Cash burn since 1 January will not be as high as £7.6m per month, but it will be close to this until lockdown started on 23 March and no lower than £4m per month since. There has been very little income since the new year (Copenhagen, some Scottish Cup and league receipts, retail), with money going out for refunds.
So what does this mean for our finances? The £32m balance at 1 Jan is likely to get us through to the financial year-end, plus or minus a couple of million either way. By 30 June, season ticket money will be in, but there is no way of knowing how well tickets will sell compared to previous seasons (we’ll not sell more, clearly).
Until lockdown is over, there will be close to nothing from stadium operations (£7.6m last season) and retail (£12.9m last season). The SPFL hopes to have fans attend games by October (the Championship business plan is counting on it), but we are looking at July, August and September with little income from many revenue streams. Next season’s finances are down to season ticket sales, Uefa qualification and a late bump from 10-in-a-row merchandise during what is likely to be a recession.
Champions League qualification brought media rights income to £33.9m in season 2017-18, the following season this dropped to (a still impressive) £15.7m for the Europa League campaign (other Euro revenues, like ticket sales, are not included in these figures).
If we qualify for the Champions League next season, I expect we will break-even. Progress through the Europa group stage and we will make a sizeable loss and a return to debt. Failure to reach the Europa League group stage would see us return a larger loss than at any time in our history by a huge margin.
Having spent this week looking at our finances and those of others in the Premiership, there are lots of unknowns ahead and just one certainty. Uefa are expected to confirm qualification competitions will be a single game each round, drawn randomly, home or away. Celtic should be seeds all the way through, but that advantage is lessened by an expectation of some away legs. Luck of the draw will never be more important.
We are going to win the league; I could not be more sure of this. I have not touched on Newco’s finances here but if you are interested, you can read back what we discussed in February. We might have problems to manage but they are a busted flush. It will all play out in the months ahead.
The season ahead could return the largest loss in the next 50 years of Celtic history. If so, we will need to work our way back, which will not be done overnight. Even the ‘sell to England’ strategy is not likely to be effective, as transfer fees are likely to suffer due to the crisis. Oh, and I think we need players for several positions, at least as cover.
When you look at Partick Thistle and others throughout the world, these are First World Problems. We have 10 to focus on, but just as winning nine-in-a-row did not happen as we wanted, the journey between here and next May is likely to be a rocky road.
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Listening to B2B The Saunderson BROS Smirnoff Sound Collective. Right here and now.
Magical.
The World has been set on fire.
Never Forget.
Love is the Ki/Dave.
Celtic had about 38 million in bank last accounts not 30 million, that is a big difference. 10 players out of contract and off the wage bill to date. We may sell ntcham, ajer or another as per normal, which will be more income and less outgoing. Season tickets without the cost of hosting games I.e. police, catering, food etc. means the money goes further. New shirt sponsor, highest ever in scotland. Non playing staff wages massively reduced.
Things are not great but I would guess the base cost is lower than the headline.
Celtic will need to cut cost just like any other business. Have no problem with club bring more kids in to the squad rather than spending lots of money. The core of the squad is good.
From a football point of view we are in a very stable position going into this season.
last year we had to replace our regular CH, LB and RB. We also had a LW who was on his way out.
i think the new players and younger players have settled well, apart from Bolingoli to an extent and we got Leigh back playing and scoring.
Bitton came back from a bad injury and played well.
We also signed a CM and a CF who are untested as yet and we have a RW who hasn’t had a chance yet either
if you look across the river, Defoe, Davis, McGregor and Arfield are a year older and last season caught up with them
keep the squad together and i see us getting off to a flyer next season
I’m quite sceptical about the figure being banded about but then again I’m very sceptical about our PLC so it’s not a surprise to anyone who knows me ..
Anyway despite these feelings ST bought and I haven’t taken up refund option …
Daughters ST not mine
I Always just let my Sonics run Random. I’m Unbelievably Free on CQN.
Java has a lot to answer for.
Need that Bhoy frae Belfast to sort it.
God Bless Every CQNer, past and Present.
Legends.
MPSHANKS @ 6:53 PM,
The point being I seriously didn’t think he was rated that highly, I take your point that you didn’t put him at third but you obviously rate him much higher than I do.
I have a list, point is if some feel Jullien is the third best CH this century they’re not going to agree with my list, it becomes a pointless excercise really
It’s my opinion CJ wouldn’t get into a MO’N side. There’s half a dozen CHs there. Can you imagine Lyndon Dykes bulling a MO’N defence?
So I don’t feel I was exaggerating we’ve had many international CH’s, by my reckoning out of our 30 odd CHs in that time CJ would be average.
Obviously fholk rate him much higher, that’s fair enough I’ve accepted that – in the future my opinion may change as it stand he wouldn’t be in my top twelve.
Hail Hail
Amazing we have Gordon and Tontine Tim.
CELTIC Encyclopedias on Legs.
Thank You.
brownies (copyright rodgers) hair, cracks me up every picture
———————–
Ilir Meta
@ilirmetazyrtar
·
3h
Speaking head in silhouette “Winning 9 is great but we’re already focused on next one. Every season is a big season for us”
Our Legend
@ScottBrown8
Collision symbol speaking today at
@CelticTV
.
Inspiring and motivational message for all us! Four leaf clover⚪ TEN-IN-A-ROW #CelticFC Green heart
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EapWDPNWoAAkmJK?format=jpg&name=small
Sorry.encyclipedia.
Superb piece Pablo.
Informative, analytical and, at times, sobering.
Interesting too reading comments fearing that Covid-19 is a leveller?
Celtic went into this unprecedented situation with £30m in the bank.
Sevco, with £30m of debt.
Celtic’s strategic planning is robust. We’ll come out of this “least worst”
Sevco don’t do strategic nor even tactical. They simply try to get ahead of the story.
Celtic have used the furlough scheme to mitigate income losses.
Sevco have not. (strange)
Celtic have offered refunds for last season and secured virtual season ticket capability for next.
Sevco have done neither.
Since the emergency began, Celtic have signed a record kit deal.
Sevco have engaged Trotters Independent Traders – I heard the tender document simply said “Stick a pony in my pocket”
Since the emergency began, Celtic’s planning has involved purchasing TWO testing machines.
Sevco don’t have a spare £35k to buy ONE.
How are they surviving?
Simple. No player, employee, supplier or creditor has received a farthing.
And, when things “return to normal” they’ll line up in front of an empty cupboard for their back pay.
Hail hail
Keep The Faith
Amazing we had Martin and the Amazing Dr Jo.
Wim was Alright too.
I so wanted Johnny Barnes to succed.
5 goals away at Aiberdeen wis Magical. Just a shame I working ouf Milton Keynes roundabouts.
Lenny is Ohmega.
I hate auto correction so wullnae go there.
Come on the Leather Belts.
We Can do this.🎶🎶🎶🎵🎶🎶🎶
It has been made a lot tougher to get CELTIC 10 in a Row. JOBO is wise as an olde Tawney owl,
Jobo Leaving CQN. KWS
https://youtu.be/Qxaxynbf_9E
My last word on the subject……
Mainstay CHs this century include Stan Varga, Stephen McManus, Gary Caldwell, Charlie Mulgrew and Efe Ambrose. Even Olivier Tebily was this Century.
We have had itinerant CHs like Adam Virgo. Dare I even mention some unmitigated disasters like Rafael Scheidt and Du Wei who were mostly with us this Century.
Yes, we have had a few better than Jullien has perhaps shown this season. Virgil springs to mind. As does Mjallby. Some might even argue Valgaeren, Stubbs or Ajer (though I would not). But 12 better? If you know of 12 better CHs than Christopher this century please do let me know their names and I will revisit my thinking.
Hail Hail
I will respsct yer Decision. Legend.
respect not respsct. Apologies.
To correct myself, I would also include Bobo on my list of better CHs this century.
Every Team needs a player who can tackle like Bobo could.
No more from me.
Lenny Omega
I like it Petec
Are you a wrestling fan by any chance?
B-)
Petec @9:39
What you going on about bhoy😂
Celtic By Numbers always offers excellent , comprehensive data to support any given view point.
I base my assessment on the much less scientific approach of considering whether or not I feel confident re any given player. I do not feel confident re Christopher Jullien.
I do feel confidence in varying degrees re the following:
Forster, Elhamed, Bitton, Ajer,Forrest, McGregor, Brown, Christie, Ntcham ( Just),Rogic,Johnston ,Edouard, Griffiths.
Frimpong…undecided but what an entertainer !
Bhoylo bhoy,
Belfast is a Wonderful City.
Loved our day there.
Wrestling…. I was brought up watching ‘proper’ wrestling Big Daddy etc…..LMAO.
Lenny is a Genius.
That bhoy Callum is getting Towards Maestro status.
STAY please Callum.
Eddie Unbelievable, so utterly skilled.
We cannae Lose Calmac.
Callum is Top Top drawer.
MPSHANKS @ 9:39 PM,
Guess you’re determined to get a list then…
It’s true, we’ve had some very poor CHs, we’ve also had some fairly good ones.
Yes, some you mention are on my list – Joos Valgaeren was much better than CJ in my opinion. You must remember the opposition that these players played against and the campaigns they had. Also the caps for their country many have.
For me CJ hasn’t played at the level to be tested nearly enough, he certainly isn’t international class. If you look at the game in Rome the Lazio forwards looked very good and Fraser Forster kept us in the game, even Morelos got through in the League Cup final time and time again… save after save by Big FF saved our blushes.
Alan Stubbs
Ramon Vega
Joos Valgaeren
Bobo Baldie
John Kennedy
Johan Mjallby
Stanislav Varga
Stephen McManus
Virjil Van Dijk
Jason Denayer
Dedryck Boyata
Kris Ajer
For various reasons all these get pass marks at Centre Half.
Then there’s Charlie Mulgrew, Ulrick Laursen, Kelvin Wilson, Gary Caldwell who did a job for us.
Others such as Kolo Toure and Steven Pressley who had fine careers as Centre Halves but Celtic didn’t see their best Seasons
Other such as Filip Benkovic, Jozo Simonuvic, Thomas Rogne we never saw there full potential.
Even the “bomb scares” of Daniel Majstrovic, Glenn Loovens and Efe Ambrose were capable CHs that in the end weren’t trusted by the support – without Fraser Forster behind him would CJ be found out?
For me the jury is out, the big guy has the potential in both penalty boxes – as long as the keeper is putting in man of the match displays on important matches it’s difficult to assess.
Aff Oot
Hail Hail
Good day for golf, then half day work, then English football on the telly.
Coppa Italia final tonight…hoping for a Napoli win .St.Pauli also in action one more win or maybe even a draw will ensure no relegation.Union Berlin secured their Bundesliga safety last night which was good to see.
Jackson Irvine is a free agent. Would be a decent signing to cover for SB.
CHAIRBHOY on 17TH JUNE 2020 5:42 AM
Ramon Vega… dear god.
John Kennedy we all know the story. Jullien has been here for a year and has already played double the amount of games. Really don’t have the sample size for that comparison.
McManus is dross.
Varga was dross.
Boyata is a bombscare.
Xavi could lace the Maestros boots
Mick literally put his face on the line on the floor.
Stephen McManus is a Legend here. I witnessed it.
Never to be seen again.
Instinct,
I was like WoW.
Nae won……..
‘We need quarantine, to stop people coming from countries, who have worse infection rates than us….’
Matt Hancock
Health Secretary
Words fail me….
Bada
I was in the kitchen when I heard that and thought no must have misheard it. Europe et al should be banning us ffs😈 well at least New Zealand😱
Bada and PB
That would mean the Belgians are banned…..everyone else welcome .
Did he really say that?
HS- he did ,and just said ‘Daniel ‘ Rashford, the level of incompetence is off the scale, the lying, cover ups etc….I used to think The Thick of It was satire.Hope you are well J.
Willie Thorne RIP
Paul quite rightly refers to the period net cash at bank as at 31st December 2019 as £32.9m
However note 9 to the accounts states the following “Period-end net cash, net of debt and debt like items, of £45.1m (2018: £37.7m), is represented by cash net of bank borrowings of £32.9m (2018: £38.6m) further adjusted for other debt like items, namely the net player trading balance, other loans and remuneration balances payable to certain personnel at the balance sheet date”.
To repeat “Period-end net cash, net of debt and debt like items, of £45.1m” Now what exactly does mean?
A discussion on the Kerrydale site came to the following conclusion that it meant “It’s effectively the cash left after all debts are paid and all money due is received.”
Now if that is the correct interpretation I would conclude that Celtic’s true cash position after all debtors and creditors are paid is ££45.1m , which is a lot healthier than the ££32.9m being discussed.
….