I want to take a look at what Uefa might do this week that could have an impact on others, as well as our finances. Expect lots of news from Uefa, who have a videoconference on Wednesday and Thursday. We should learn how last season’s Champions and Europa Leagues will conclude, what next season’s qualification competition will look like and the calendar of dates for next season, with guidance on transfer windows.
A relatively minor point with more bearing in Scotland will be discussed on Thursday, how Financial Fair Play (FFP) will be enforced with respect to the crisis. You will remember we discussed Newco’s position with respect to FFP in a lengthy article in February. Without revisiting detail, the scenario required them to sell significantly before the 30 June financial year end to prevent them breaching FFP regulations.
FFP breaches do not instantly or automatically lead to disqualification from Uefa competition, but it would require the club to take “rehabilitative action” or else face consequences, including the ultimate Uefa sanction. Rehabilitative action means cutting costs, significantly so, in the case of Newco.
Current FFP rules allows for exemptions due to exceptional circumstances, which the current crisis certainly is. The process effectively adds-in revenue or subtracts costs you would otherwise see were it not for the exceptional circumstances, so in theory, Newco could claim allowance for a few lost revenue (although unlike Celtic, this will be very limited as they did not offer refunds).
We have to hope that no substantive changes are made to FFP rules.
Scottish football was a different place when we looked at Newco’s finances in February. Celtic’s interim accounts to 31 December showed £32m in the bank, we were on our way to nine-in-a-row and finances were very stable. 10 of the 12 others in the Premiership were living within their means and we had a new TV deal to look forward to. Since then, red ink has bled everywhere.
Our operating expenses for the first 6 months of the financial year were £7.6m per month. The manager, coaches and execs have taken pay cuts, while furloughed staff costs are met by the taxpayer, but I expect the deferrals players took will all have to be paid by the time this financial year closes on 30 June. Cash burn since 1 January will not be as high as £7.6m per month, but it will be close to this until lockdown started on 23 March and no lower than £4m per month since. There has been very little income since the new year (Copenhagen, some Scottish Cup and league receipts, retail), with money going out for refunds.
So what does this mean for our finances? The £32m balance at 1 Jan is likely to get us through to the financial year-end, plus or minus a couple of million either way. By 30 June, season ticket money will be in, but there is no way of knowing how well tickets will sell compared to previous seasons (we’ll not sell more, clearly).
Until lockdown is over, there will be close to nothing from stadium operations (£7.6m last season) and retail (£12.9m last season). The SPFL hopes to have fans attend games by October (the Championship business plan is counting on it), but we are looking at July, August and September with little income from many revenue streams. Next season’s finances are down to season ticket sales, Uefa qualification and a late bump from 10-in-a-row merchandise during what is likely to be a recession.
Champions League qualification brought media rights income to £33.9m in season 2017-18, the following season this dropped to (a still impressive) £15.7m for the Europa League campaign (other Euro revenues, like ticket sales, are not included in these figures).
If we qualify for the Champions League next season, I expect we will break-even. Progress through the Europa group stage and we will make a sizeable loss and a return to debt. Failure to reach the Europa League group stage would see us return a larger loss than at any time in our history by a huge margin.
Having spent this week looking at our finances and those of others in the Premiership, there are lots of unknowns ahead and just one certainty. Uefa are expected to confirm qualification competitions will be a single game each round, drawn randomly, home or away. Celtic should be seeds all the way through, but that advantage is lessened by an expectation of some away legs. Luck of the draw will never be more important.
We are going to win the league; I could not be more sure of this. I have not touched on Newco’s finances here but if you are interested, you can read back what we discussed in February. We might have problems to manage but they are a busted flush. It will all play out in the months ahead.
The season ahead could return the largest loss in the next 50 years of Celtic history. If so, we will need to work our way back, which will not be done overnight. Even the ‘sell to England’ strategy is not likely to be effective, as transfer fees are likely to suffer due to the crisis. Oh, and I think we need players for several positions, at least as cover.
When you look at Partick Thistle and others throughout the world, these are First World Problems. We have 10 to focus on, but just as winning nine-in-a-row did not happen as we wanted, the journey between here and next May is likely to be a rocky road.
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Chairbhoy, interesting discussion hypothetical question, would CJ look a better Centre Half as part of a 3 with Lennon an Lambert sitting in front of him?
Chris Julien is doing just fine and dandy to me. Bizarre the criticism he’s getting.
Big W- ditto
Julien has been a good signing.
Have Sevco said why Morelos is still in Colombia, have they given a return date for him ? He is truly the special one in Govan.
Morelos was back a couple days ago I think
An Dun – Noticed the old ‘sell Morelos’ is ramping up again…
Off to Leicester / Middle eastern tycoons / South Americans / any old BS…
£25 million apparently or maybe £30 million or maybe less / any old BS….
A crap fat, demotivated Morelos or a goner…..it’s a win:win for us…..
p.s The spine of their team McGregor (38), Davis (36) and Defoe (38) “will be on the pension very shortly and how they dream of yesterday”
Order your limited edition Celtic view only £4.99 delivery charge
This is now just taking it too far
BT- Dearie me…..
£4.99 is it a double hard-back copy ffs! por cierto
BT
Did you buy one ? :O)
VP
Pre ordered 😛
We laugh at the huns scamming their hordes….
PHILBHOY
I think it was you who posted about Stevie’s illness any update.
KEEP THE FAITH
We can refuse to buy products.
Just saying.
I’m personally refreshing the shop daily for sight of my new adidas, hipster cat suit in Large, sponsorless version…..
Meooooowwww csc
Why is it every time all the talk on celtic sites is about sevco going broke again . We have waited for it since 2012 . They are not going to go out the game , that mob are getting kept afloat from god knows where , but kept afloat they are . We need to forget about them ,and concentrate on keeping our noses in front , they have caught up a bit with us , no doubt about that ,it’s only two seasons ago we were whapping them by 4 and 5 at every turn . Every real celtic fan site is proclaiming we have superior players to them , I totally agree with that , so what is the difference . The huge difference is they are rougher tougher than the nice wee tanner baw player we go for . No hays , auld or aitken in our team now .yes we still have the captain ,the great Scott brown ,but even the toe rags are lining up to have a pop at him now , something they wouldn’t have done a few seasons ago , we have a 6 ft 6 inch centre half who gets rolled to easily for me , even an opposition centre forward commented how surprised he was at how timid he was . We have international players who when they see a blue jersey crap it , green specs on or not we have all seen it , which surprises me as the type of player Lennon was and the team Martin O’Neil built no one hid in that 2003 team . We have replaced Lustig and tierney with two wee totty players , who are good players but come on . We have lost KT Armstrong . Lustig ,Dembele . Roberts . Sinclaire . And replaced them with IMHO sub standard replacements , klimala , schved , bolingoli Conner , oh dear . This is our huge season the magic 10 it is there for us , the only threat to us attaining the holy grail will come from within , Will our suits want it as bad as us . By the close of the transfer window ,we should have our answer . HH
SPFL have a 2.3 million liability to BT.
Legal action with Hearts/Partick.
Liabilities with Sky.
I’d be interested in seeing a cost/benefit analysis on playing the season out (even just to the split)
Was it the right call to end it? No skin off our noses.
BIG WAVY
Should you not do a mooo as you are being used as a cash cow ? 8-))
Aye Jimtim,
I’m absolutely raging at the lack of success those wee lads & lesser Aitkens bring and in the face of that amazingly improved Sevco team too….
Come on man…..so we lost the Lyndon Dykes one-off challenge game and it’s doom and gloom???
Hey BT,
Pull the Udder one…….
The Herald has an article with the Heading:- “Charlie Adam hints at desire to return to Rangers as he identifies a transfer strategy to “turn tables” on Celtic.
I am guessing the strategy is *Don’t buy duds like Charlie Adam”
I can see Moi on the CelticTV video of training today….
Ya dancer…..
JIMTIM on 17TH JUNE 2020 11:48 AM
They did go broke. If Sevco goes broke there will be another “Rangers” but doesn’t change the fact that Celtic are the dominant force in Scotland.
We’re Juventus. We’re Bayern Munich. The only people capable of stopping our dominance is ourselves.
The biggest challenge to Celtic will be next summer. A whole squad rebuild will be required. Hopefully before then some fringe players like Shved, Klimala, Soro or Taylor will step up before then.
Ryan Christie and Tom Rogic weren’t instant hits.
Watched the Man Utd v Celtic game on Youtube last week (Giggs Testimonial?)
Good 3-2 Victory to us and even Lenny got on the scoresheet
Who played Centre Back the whole game – Tebily
CJ scored some important goals for us last season (Lazio, Hamilton etc)
Way down the list of dud centre backs
I’ve had the “pleasure” of watching the likes of Moyes, McGugan and Hendry over the years, now we’re talking………
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 17TH JUNE 2020 11:59 AM
The Herald has an article with the Heading:- “Charlie Adam hints at desire to return to Rangers as he identifies a transfer strategy to “turn tables” on Celtic
I am guessing the strategy is *Don’t buy duds like Charlie Adam”
______________________________________________________________________________________
By the looks of him he might not have ‘turned tables’ but he’s most certainly cleared a few….
*Josh Thompson
Somewhat surprised by a few of the comments today. IMO Julien has been a fantastic signing – MOM against Sevco in the league (and would have got it for the Cup Final as well if it hadn’t been for FF channeling Gordon Marshall v Barca), brilliant against Lazio, shows leadership and is a big game player. A steal at 7million.
awe_naw_nae_noo_article_oan_anaw_ noo?
Who would win in a fight between a bombscare and an empty jersey?
#
Who would win in a fight between an empty jersey and Mr Invisible?
Sevco “closing the gap” ?
Hhmm.
2018/19
SPFL
Celtic – Champions – 2.29 points per game
Sevco – runners up – 2.05 PPG
Gap – 0.24 PPG
Scottish Cup
Celtic – Winners
Sevco – losing quarter finalists
League Cup
Celtic – Winners
Sevco – losing semi finalists
2019/20
SPFL
Celtic – Champions – 2.67 PPG
Sevco – runners up – 2.31 PPG
Gap – 0.36 PPG
Scottish Cup
Celtic – are in semi finals (could win it)
Sevco – losing quarter finalists
League Cup
Celtic – Winners
Sevco – runners up
Happy to be corrected but, from the above facts I’ve reached the following conclusions
– In SPFL, Sevco are further away
– Scottish Cup, no improvement
– League Cup, got past one more round
– They beat a tired Celtic at home – Yip
– Won the back pages by a wider margin
– Made much more noise
– Incurred much more debt
Improvements? I don’t see them.
Hail hail
Keep The Faith
I had the great misfortune to see Frank Munroe,and the 1 million pound dud,lot of money then,we signed after his best days with Liverpool were well behind him.Glen Loovens,deary me.Talking of CHs getting rag dolled by some CFs,Big Billy was regularly roasted by Jim Forrest .Some players just have a bogey opponent.
Big Jullien had a fantastic first season for us.Obviously far too many forgetting Paul Elliots 1st season.A nightmare.We all know these types of fan.Sat beside them often enough.If they dont personally rate a player,then God help him.
Gary Gillespie,forgot to put his name in.
TURKEYBHOY
Celtic signed the late Frank Munro from Wolverhampton for £20,000 he didn’t turn out for Liverpool either, maybe you’re confusing him with another so called ‘dud’ Gary Gillespie, who did cost £1M via Liverpool.
Records CSC
👆👆👆👆
See the scum fascist hordes will be gathering in George Sq today at 5.The reason.There is a meeting scheduled for 6 by Immigrants.
Defending their Kulcher again ,no doubt.
BSR,
No not confusing.Maybe you read it wrong,or I wrote it badly.Two duds that played CH for us,that I,along with a few on here will remember.
Gary Gillespie’s pet nickname at Celtic was ‘the rigger’ – two weeks on, two weeks off