Aberdeen fans, grasping financial fundamentals

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It would be remiss of me not to acknowledge Aberdeen fans’ banner on Saturday in response to their chairman, Stewart Milne’s suggestion that fans are damaging our game with talking about the consequences of clubs being found to be cheating.
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I know some people learned the lessons of 2012 but others appear to have acquired amnesia. Back in 2012 only one SPL club was of the view that Rangers should not be allowed to phoenix and gain entry to top flight football. After a considerable campaign by fans, all others, apart from Rangers themselves, and Kilmarnock, decided it would be better if existing rules were allowed to stand on the matter.

Milne was off his head making his comments. The only way to possibly pull a stroke like this would be to keep quiet about it, even then I doubt it would be achievable. Making his feelings known was only going to engage Aberdeen supporters, who will have the ultimate view on what the club do.

The issue remains in the long grass until the Supreme Court have concluded their business, but what we said in October remains valid: if Celtic stand alone, the matter will not be looked at again, if other clubs are on-board, it will be examined appropriately. It is for fans of Aberdeen, United, Hibs, Hearts, Motherwell and make their feelings known.

The Herald’s piece this morning on Newco being “handed a place in the Premiership next summer as a result of some hastily-arranged league reconstruction” was remarkable. It was absurd but also worthy of respect. “NOBODY at Rangers (sic.)” wants this, but as other clubs need for Newco’s promotion is so great, apparently this is not really implausible.

Promote them, not because they are in need, because other clubs need them.

The starting position on league reconstruction is notable. For years only Celtic and Rangers blocked the SPL from being expanded. The majority of top flight clubs live in fear of (and experienced) relegation. They want a less competitive middle to the league. When the SPFL was formed a temporary moratorium of league reconstruction was agreed. This moratorium is due to expire shortly, a window for change is about to open up.

Tracking underneath all of these debates are the financial fundamentals. Newco is not financially viable. They are not viable in the Championship and although Premiership football would give them a few millions more, it would not change the fundamentals.

The circa £17m it takes to run a club at Ibrox before you employ football staff leaves little money for football given their anticipated top-flight income. It would take years and many tens of millions of dead investment to change this, as well as Mike Ashley raising the white flag.

These facts have not been grasped yet as the consequences of the hoped for investment of tens of millions not appearing are not being considered. Dave King might invest £30m-£50m, so with a fair wind everything might be OK. On the other hand, I think even £50m is tight, and I don’t see anything like that money heading to Ibrox.

The consequences of what happened in 2012, even on these pages, have yet to be realised. The old business model is finished, it’s not coming back.

Many thanks to everyone who contributed to the Foundation Christmas Appeal bucket collection on Saturday. You see people at their very best on these occasions. If you want to know how your money will be spent have a read here.

Very last shout from CQN Bookstore for Christmas delivery, if you’re after 16:00, it’ll be after the festives’ before you get your book or DVD.

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627 Comments

  1. The Auldheid-Neganon axis is a fascinating line we could use to plot cqn-ers thoughts and perceptions. And I type that with a wry smile but utmost respect for you both.

     

     

    For me, I want to live in the world Auldheid describes. But I fear I live in one closer to that described by Neganon.

     

     

    Why? I have no links with cfc hierarchy. No inside track.

     

     

    My sole such insight came the year after the demise of the FOD when a board member lamented to me the end of the old firm and the associated income. He may felt anger at the evident years of cheating and the loss of past monies. But only the loss of present and future monies was mentioned to me.

     

     

    Was this an accurate reflection of that individual’s more considered view? Did that person speak for the wider board view? Or that of the CEO or DD? I don’t know.

     

     

    But the celtic hierarchy’s subsequent actions and inactions lead me to fear so.

     

     

    Auldheid, I will try to KTF. But it’s not easy. And time is marching on to some form of denouement. Whose? We shall see.

     

     

    Wow! I make petec sound like terry wogan there!!!! (Only kidding bud!!!)

     

     

    Night you all.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  2. Jamesgang

     

     

    A year after RFC went burst would be Feb 2013.

     

     

    At that point LNS was just giving his Decision that on legal advice Celtic (and other clubs) had to accept. I know that is a fact from minutes of SPL meeting.

     

     

    Charlotte Fakeovers began leaking material in June 2013 in random form.

     

     

    That material began to form a picture or narrative in the following months that would change minds if what it suggested were true.

     

     

    It was on the basis it might be that Celtic agreed to haud the bus at the Nov AGM in 2013.

     

     

    My point is yer man might have been less concerned about the loss of income had he known the full circumstances that brought it about and the SFA’S attempts at minimising the seriousness of the wrong against Celtic as well as other clubs.

     

     

    Had Celtic not suggested the adjournment I would have been standing on Neganon2’s shoulders to scale the walls at CP.

     

     

    But they did and tightening the narrative from say 60% certainty to around 98% certainty (and the 2% is just contingency to allow for something unseen being uncovered ) would never have happened without Celtic’s involvement.

     

     

    The issue for me is not that Celtic were uncooperative but that the nature of Scottish society causes the silence that breeds mistrust and I’m not sure if Celtic can be blamed for that being the victims as much as the support are.

  3. So all the Lawwell/Board-haters – let’s say we get rid of PL – that’s a net saving of around £500k/year.

     

     

    Now if you accept that all the revenue that comes in, goes out to finance the club/team, if you don’t please read the accounts for the last ten years- how much debt would take on to arrest the so-called downsizing?

     

     

    Would it be £15 million per year and for how many years? What would that get us in terms of players and associated transfer fees/wages?

     

     

    Of course we could always add on the £500k per year that we save on the PL salary – that could just tip the balance.

     

     

    Of course we would have to employ a new CEO – but of course we could probably get someone from either the Truss, Green Brigade, or, who knows, one of our EXPERTS from CQN – bet any one of them would do it for the ‘living wage’ and not a penny more.

  4. Fred Quimby

     

    Now that name has brought me loads of pleasure thought my many years.

     

    Not as much as Celtic though.

     

    Why does everyone want to scalp PL of his salary?

     

    Why not have the players’ salaries and win bonuses cut?

     

    Of course we will then only get the kind of players we pay for.

     

    Need I finish the train of thought?

     

    There are more questions than answers.

  5. Aye Peter didn’t kick a ball on Saturday.

     

    Not one successfully completed pass.

     

    Not one successful tackle.

     

    (all of the above could also be attributed to CC)

     

    He, Peter, was way off the pace and just couldn’t get into a decent position to prevent Motherwell’s fast breaks.

     

    He should have been far more forceful in the huddle as well.

     

    When the players cross the touch line the manager, coaches, board and tea ladies have little or no control over what happens.

  6. The Romans described human sacrifices among the ancient Celts.

     

    The Druids led the festivities by burning criminals, slaves or prisoners.

     

    So will Peter or Ronny be the Wicker Men for modern Celts?

     

    Will Ronny be put in a burning ship, launched eastwards out of Lerwick harbour back towards his home in true Viking style?

     

    Will Peter be piled up with faggots and set afire at the stake like a modern Guy Fawkes?

     

    If any or both of the above come to pass, who will fill the vacuum?

     

    Which successful and worthy manager of CEO will be thick skinned enough to grasp the poisoned chalice?

     

    “Don’t it always seem to go

     

    That you don’t know what what you’ve got till it’s gone.”

  7. Sorry folks

     

    I woke up the board.

     

    Carlton Cole.

     

    Time for me now to catch some sleep.

     

    BTW You probably all know I’m a global warming sceptic.

     

    And of course you all know that winter starts today.

     

    Howevva, chapeau to Kojo, temperatures for this Christmas week are rising into the 60s and 70s.

     

    El Niño is due Friday. Appropriate.

     

    A child is born.

  8. Must say heavy stuff after a gig…I used to tune in for the links this time of night/morn

     

    Bobbys curled up wans was good for that.. where’s at bhoy?

  9. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    The double standards on here are palpable,

     

    A total stranger comes on and describes how a club should be run and states it as a fact about how our club is run and the self same crowd that criticise anyone for making their opinions look like facts are first to congratulate him about his opinion being an unsubstantiated fact, yet he misses the obvious, where did the players come from before the manager was in charge ?

     

     

    This guy Bigbhoy is lauded for making his opinion out to be facts, if it suits your argument then anyone is allowed to make their opinions out to be facts, if it does not suit your argument you need to prove it.

  10. Drambowie Celt

     

    I’m on my way. It takes about 10 minutes to switch off all our Christmas lights, and inevitable I forget a candle, battery operated, or a wee lit church and have to go back downstairs.

     

    Worse tonight the bed had been turned down all day with the window open, so I’m waiting for the better half to warm it up.

     

    All or some of what I’ve said above may be as accurate as Sevco’s financial forecasts.

  11. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Bigbhoy is the latest contributor to the blog, talks like he knows something and the happy clappers all took to him right away without question or even the traditional CQN greeting, that’s how quickly you can be accepted on here if you say the right things for those who are afraid to question.

  12. Stuart Armstrong would be a mixture of, Craig Burley and, Tommy Callaghan under, Big McGhee….imho.

  13. Prayers said,

     

    Teeth brushed,

     

    Ablutions complete,

     

    Bed warmed

     

    One quick peep in to the CQN kids to make sure they’re sleeping peacefully

     

    Meds taken,

     

    So before they kick in

     

    Bob Seger Against the Wind, although my favourite of his is “Like a rock.”

     

    http://youtu.be/R8x9oNZ7CcI

     

    http://youtu.be/R8x9oNZ7CcI

     

    So good I paste it twice

     

    Good night and God Bless

  14. The flags would fly high and proud on the ole Jungle roof….if…Big McGhee and, John Collins were given the keys of the Celtic dug oot…imho.

  15. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    CANAMALAR

     

     

    Some questioned his comments,to be fair.

     

     

    Personally,I thought they described precisely how the football operation should be run.

     

     

    In practice,I doubt very much it is the case. As you are well aware!

  16. Boyata would be like Bobo Balde under Big McGhee coz, McGhee would introduce a much needed ‘fear-factor’ into the dressing room….nae cliques….joost a Big-Bad-Wolf wi a baseball bat….

     

    ….the new dressing room code would be….Get Flukin Oan Wi It!

     

    ….under, Big McGhee….mind-games would be played by Big McGhee on, the SMSM….Big McGhee wid pull the troosers aff them….just give him the keys….and you’ll see…..