It has been four months since the FA Premier League announced the results of its tender for three year broadcast rights starting next summer. Five of the packages were sold (four to Sky, one to BT), but two were withdrawn as they did not attract sufficiently high bids (one subsequently went to BT).
The two unsold packages were to simultaneously broadcast all league games across two match days each. BT increased their per-game bid for one package but allowed Sky to drop their per-game price and still win a larger share of the spoils than they currently hold. Amazon were today awarded one of these packages, although no revenue information has (yet) been published.
Those of us who watch our football in a league which was disenfranchised by wealthy cartels, such as the one English and Welsh clubs enjoy, have been loitering in the wings looking for signs that the broadcast revenue bubble was set to burst.
With BT reigning their spend back and Sky soon to be sold, the FA Premier League need to attract competition from new media players like Amazon. Two competitors is enough if both are highly motivated to win substantial rights, but, as we know in Scotland, two is not sufficient is one loses interest.
We can hope the Premier League took a bath for the rights sold to Amazon as they continue to tart the remaining package around tech media players. The worst-case scenario (for those of us on the outside) is that the England and Wales broadcast rights have plateaued. Even a modest reversal in the next auction, due early 2021, would bring about am unprecedented, and unaffordable, revenue drop.
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Starry Plough,
It is a special place. Brings calm and serenity to you however you are feeling when you walk in.
DALLAS DALLAS WHERE THE HECK IS DALLAS on 6TH JUNE 2018 10:47 PM and DELANEYS DUNKY on 6TH JUNE 2018 10:58 PM
Ally McLeod was indeed a very skilful player and scored 4 against deidco in the SLC at hades. He earned himself a transfer tae Southampton but failed tae settle and was soon up the road tae Easter Road here he had quite a prolific career. After that game against us where he scored 2 goals a lot of our support raved about him and he did look like a star in the making. My fear at the time was he would end up at hades, he did look that good at the time.
Starry…yes, got it thanks…
One look at Aston Villa tells you all you need to know about the desperation of even established clubs down there to remain part of the top flight, living beyond their means even after relegation to try and ensure a quick return but now set for a third year in the second tier and will now be forced to cut their cloth. The likes of Leeds and Blackburn have descended into farce and could have taught them a lesson.
HH
This bit from ETims intrigues me.
“We also understand that those high up in the club, top of the north stand, presumably, are furious with the way events have transpired domestically, and have no further wish to be associated with it.
There has always been a real fear at Celtic that the other clubs, especially whichever version is playing out of Ibrox, will manipulate things to “clip our wings “, and Celtic are having none of it.
Sharing home gates, increasing the amount of live television games from Celtic Park, anything at all that could cut revenue.
In any other industry that would not be allowed, but Scottish football is a law unto itself, or at least it thinks it is.”
If the high ups at Celtic want to make an evidence backed case to move because they are operating in a hostile environment, perhaps criminally hostile, then the outcome of the JPDT, if it omits to explain instances of behaviour that could be criminal as in fraud, would strongly support such a case.
ET @13.34
CP is not fit for purpose.
The facilities are now 25 years old at least.
It needs real investment.
Better hospitality.
Bigger range of seats and offerings.
Huge increase in facilities for the average ST holder.
More usage outside of football.
£60mill is a mix of investment and bond debt.
£40mill bond over 10 / 15 / 20 years @ 4% / 5% if we make the CL or something similar.
£20mill is money we have.
Would you put money in?
PL could earn £20mill over the next 20 years — surely he needs to earn it.
WFMcC saw the need to invest — now the current lot need to follow his lead.
We need to plan now for a bigger future.
Part 2
If Wee think we are a big club then we need to act like a big club.
Now is the time to take things forward.
Auldheid
It’s not a bubble.
It’s a route into a consumer market of 60 million very affluent people, that has been proven for almost 30 years.
It’ll lose its value when it loses its people, or something else comes along that more effectively reaches them.
So long as football is mass-market in England, the value of the EPL’s broadcasting rights will remain high. The value of their overseas rights is a different matter and is much more exposed.
Shit of course will happen along the way, with the value fluctuating accordingly as it has done with the next batch of rights being down 10%, but the core proposition will remain valid and profitable.
Virtually all EPL clubs are now sufficiently well managed to cope with any general downturn in rights, should it occur. And if it occurs, England will remain one of the most lucrative consumer markets in the Europe, so relatively, there will be no change beyond some short-term adjustment. The show will go on, and 10, 15, 20 years from now, some folk in Scotland will still be telling us that the bubble will burst.
It’s just business. Regular, well-established, and rather predictable business.
BMCUP – See above.
New changes to CL payouts mean that top clubs are guaranteed more money than every …. under the new formula for dividing up the money, top clubs get a greater share than ever before, and are guaranteed huge payments …..
RM are already guaranteed about 50 million Euros before a ball is even kicked.
https://dailytimes.com.pk/249994/real-madrid-to-get-50m-euros-without-kicking-a-ball/
‘There has always been a real fear at Celtic that the other clubs, especially whichever version is playing out of Ibrox, will manipulate things to “clip our wings “, and Celtic are having none of it.
Sharing home gates, increasing the amount of live television games from Celtic Park, anything at all that could cut revenue.’
And no letting us park at the ground whilst maintaining a p1sspoor public transport service…
HH
MILD MANNERED PEDRO DELGADO on 7TH JUNE 2018 6:21 AM
Btw,my dad, god rest him was a Kilsyth Emmet former player. Noticed some of you guys talking about Robert Emmet the other day and that led me to think whether there were other teams in Scotland named after Emmet.
*there was a juvenile side in Alexandria in the early 50’s called the Vale Emmet, they played in a Hibs strip. They were given a piece of land to play on that was owned by a local quarry owner and haulage contractor who was a well known philanthropist in the area, he donated the land where the current St Kessogs Church in Balloch sits
Anyway, it became known as the Emmet Park and St Mary’s Primary and later on Balloch Juveniles played on it for years; in fact I believe a juvenile side called Emmetpark played there in later years. A housing scheme now sits there but locals still refer to the area as Emmet Park.
If you were to look at the UEFA 2011 licence issue from 2011 to 2012 as a movie that has spawned sequels as in Res12 in 2013, going to UEFA in 2016 to the SFA JPDT at end of June as sequels then in the tradition of keeping a good plot alive here is an as yet unpublicised prequel taken from SFM.
” A bit more timeline information for “The Lawman2” re his insistence that the only “bill” he knows of was the one dated 20 May 2011.
RFC was first issued with a “bill” on 28 September 2007. Rangers chose to appeal, which they did on 26 October 2007.
The RFC appeal was put on hold while the similar Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) scheme went to a FTTT. AAM had been issued with their “bill” on 16 January 2007, but for reasons unknown to me the FTTT did not hear the case until June /July 2010. The AAM FTTT decision was published on 29 October 2010.
HMRC then proceeded, just four weeks later on 26 November 2010, to present RFC with an offer to settle on the same terms as AAM, or to pursue their own FTTT appeal. As we know they did neither.
What do I take from that? A bill/liability existed on 28 September 2007. When RFC decided to appeal on 26 October 2007 it was within their rights to do so. Putting the appeal on hold until the AAM appeal played out, only stopped the clock. The bill still existed. When HMRC made their offer on 26 November 2010, the clock had restarted. RFC did not appeal, but prevaricated while they sought the opinion of counsel, and came up with a quantum for an actual settlement figure, taking account of the additional interest that had accrued since 2007. What happened on 20 May 2011 was an enforcement procedure for a bill that had been issued three and a half years previously.”
The argument being insisted on by The Lawman is that tax owed, tax that HMRC were in pursuit of since 2007 was not an overdue payable because the actual demand to collect did not arrive until after 31st March 2011. (On 20th May actually)
This delay was a result of RFC dragging its heels, something Findlay brought out in the CW trial, from Nov 2010 when the appeal on a parallel case was dismissed.
It’s no wonder there is an internal Ibrox e mail saying HMRC think that what the old regime did was tantamount to fraud.
THEBATTEREDBUNNET
Whether micro or macro economics,deflation is the enemy.
So too with your wee bubble.
Of course it isn’t going to burst,it isn’t going to go “pop” any time soon.
Clubs are working on margins at the top end of the TV income scale and still can’t be viable. Nor are they a sufficient draw for the ECA idea.
They’re screwed. Take 44 teams in the top two tiers in England. At least 30 of them are FUBAR’d without huge TV money.
And that ship is slowly sailing,that ballon is slowly deflating.
That’s all it takes,mate no need for a Big Bang.
Or even a pop.
Auldheid
Etims is deliberately vague in its reporting of issues.
The Board being unhappy with Scottish Football is not new, throughout our history we have been in dispute with the SFA and League. I am sure they are unhappy at current events at Sevco and all that comes from that.
I have been told that Celtic would only redevelop the Main stand if we were to go into a bigger League. A full redevelopment would create a second tier all round and take capacity to 80,000. The current financial model suggests that such redevelopment in the SPFL could not be justified.
However, we are spending money on Celtic Park and at Barrowfield, on Revenue positive projects. This could well be compatible with an ECA model for elite clubs. Manchester United have built a new Hotel opposite Old Trafford.
Celtic would only leave the Scottish set up if there was a financial better option available. There is not one yet
TBB
I am one who thinks the TV cash will drop considerably for the big 5 European Leagues. More footie fans are now becoming more tech savvy, and will be able to access more streamed matches through the internet. Why pay a broadcaster up to £100 per month for games when the same matches can be accessed for a fraction of that? The broadcasters will fight hard to retain their current dominance, but in the end, they can’t stop the tide.
Celtic’s dominance in Scotland is strengthened by the cash from European football, but the club doesn’t depend on TV cash for its survival, unlike the great majority of the top level clubs in the elite leagues.
If a pan European league does come about in 5/6 years time, and we are included, then we can look forward to testing ourselves at the very highest level. Or can we? It comes back to a point I have mentioned several times before; do we want Celtic to be paying obscene transfer fees and wages in order to attract the best players? I’m not so sure . What do you think?
Sorry Paul, but I am pretty sure you have been forecasting the EPL burst bubble for about 10 years now and it’s still going strong. The last deal may have leveled off a bit, but the overseas rights are still going up strongly. Don’t see any big crash coming soon.
BOBBY MURDOCH’S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on 7TH JUNE 2018 2:35 PM
Yeah, with wages and transfer fees at those clubs (including the Championship in England) increasing at a rate much higher than that of the TV money, something will have to give somewhere, and soon you would think.
With the current rate we’re going at what will a 23 year old equivalent to Neymar be transferred for in 2025? The reaction of most football fans not to mention the general public has already been one of disgust at some of the salaries.
Even the top Spanish clubs are struggling to keep up with whats happening in England.
HH
PADDY TURNER on 7TH JUNE 2018 7:03 AM
Tontine Tim : enjoyed your reminiscing in our era…….I recall we played at Hampden against Ayr in some cup game where it went to a few replays….they had a centre Dixie Ingram who was the only player I saw getting the better of Big Billy in the air…he seemed to have an ability to hang. Thanks.
*Correct, a young KD played at right half in both games as Bobby Murdoch was down at a health farm in an effort tae shift some weight. The Faither’s career ended in the replay when he was carried off after making a save from the aforementioned ingram.
We were behind 4 times in both games until Stevie finally grabbed the winner in the replay. We seemed tae struggle against minor sides with rugged centres in the semis of this tournament and I recall both Kenny Wilson and Drew Busby giving Billy a torrid time with Dumbarton and Airdrie respectively.
GER57
Goes against our socialist grain,mate.
But,wouldn’t it be great to be in the position that we could?
MADMITCH on 7TH JUNE 2018 9:20 AM
Always a bit of a link due to the 1967 angle — winning the Junior cup made it a good year for for the whole town.
Interesting story about the captain of KR that year — gave up playing as he thought he had gone as far as he could in the game winning the SJC. Or so he told my father after mass on a regular basis.
*didn’t Pat McMahon, fresh fae the seminary, earn a move tae the ‘tic after winning the cup that year.
GER57 on 7TH JUNE 2018 2:38 PM
It comes back to a point I have mentioned several times before; do we want Celtic to be paying obscene transfer fees and wages in order to attract the best players? I’m not so sure . What do you think?
================
It depends how you define obscene.
If the asking price is x and you can afford it then why not get the best? The obscene part is clubs already in massive debt like Real Madrid being able to pay 8 or even 9 figure sums for players.
Some people think £1m for a footballer is obscene. We’re about to pay 5+ times that for a French forward. Many of us would have baulked at that in February.
Where do we draw the line?
HH
Not sure about the European league. They have been talking about it for thirty years and it still hasn’t happened. The two group stage CL in the early 2000s didn’t really work and they went back to knockout.
The clubs pushing it will be the big (non English) clubs who will be getting hacked off at seeing piddling little English clubs getting more than them.
So I guess it could happen and we should be getting prepared just incase. The Gerrard appointment over in chaos county might even have been done with this in mind.
AULDHEID @ 2:34 PM,
Interesting, I noticed your little dialogue with Lawman on TSFM.
It seems to me you gave him his heid in his hauns but he kept coming back for more…
It reminded me of something out of Monthy Python.
This delay was a result of RFC dragging its heels, something Findlay brought out in the CW trial, from Nov 2010 when the appeal on a parallel case was dismissed.
Surely this is a key point. I believe the initial bill which was presented after the AAM case (Nov 2010) was circa £2.3M. Now when the bill went to collection in (May 2011) it had increased due to interest and penalties accruing to £2.8M.
Now, if the bill had just become an overdue payable in May how do they account for the extra £500,000?
It is blatant nonsense.
The other point is in the letter (05 May 2011) from HM Inspector of Taxes to Murray Groups FD, the Inspector states that he’d spoken to Mr McIntyre (RFC FD, who I believe had long since agreed the tax liability) and had allowed things to “drift” while the takeover was in the offing. But seemed at the end of his tether as it had being going on too long.
Now just because Rangers had stalled the payment, stating the imminent takeover as a reason does NOT mean the tax was not overdue. Quite the opposite, the fact that the principle tax due was accruing interest and penalties during this time period means it was definitely an overdue tax bill.
(It would be interesting to know whether they’d had the same conversation with the SFA – off the record so to speak.)
I’d always been curious as to why the Rangers and Murray financial guys were only too willing to “come clean” on the WTC during the CW trial. Of course, the real and present danger to them of committing a fraud must have been at the forefront of their mind.
Hail Hail
T3 @ 2.49
Not sure on that point — I got my info well after the event.
On the history angle Kiltoon Emmet either folded or merged with the “Wee Gers”.
Not sure when this happened — my original thought was the 1930’s crash.
However a lot of the players moved over en masse — pardon the pun — and they were always seen as pretty open. At the amateur level St P’s was the main event playing out of the Sportsfield.
According to our friends in the West — 5 miles to the west / CM land — Kiltoon was all full of Calvinists no matter what church you went to.
I thought they were being harsh.
No “TFOD” SC but a big CSC.
Orange Hall falling victim to GB’s bulldozer after SCC put a road through it.
No Road Spotter activity in living memory.
Architecture gem is St P’s and its brutalist concrete.
Funny sort of Calvinism.
BigBhoy
The Board being unhappy with Scottish Football is not new, throughout our history we have been in dispute with the SFA and League. I am sure they are unhappy at current events at Sevco and all that comes from that.
=======
What is knew is knowing you are in an enviroement that is hostile to you.
Not suspecting but knowing with proof to back that knowledge.
My point was it gives Celtic leverage if an option to move came up but SFA representing other clubs tried to stop it.
Celtic have to be exploring all options to move before the environment kills us.
T88 @ 2.51
We should never pay top dollar.
We should never try to buy success.
We need to build our own — either from 17 or 21.
Traditionalist 88
For a club like Celtic, founded as we were, paying £100k plus per week in wages is obscene. Whether we can afford it or not. Your remarks seem to suggest that it’s the fact that some of the big clubs can’t afford it that is obscene. Sorry, mate. It’s the quantum which is obscene.
You can use the excuse that the market decides the rate for the job. Well let’s have a proper open market with perfect knowledge and free entry to all. Can’t work in football so the market defence is a crock of shite.
Celtic is special to me because of its origins and we would be betraying our roots by paying the likes of Neymar or Ronaldo £750k per week. I will never attend a game where that obscenity occurs. I’d even take up golf or bowls.
BrotherwalrideatyourheartoutCSC
BMCUP
This is a discussion on the EPL and the value of its TV rights. It’s not a discussion on the basket case that is the English Football League. Let’s not cross the two.
The EPL is a profitable and sustainable business, comprising of (mostly) profitable and sustainable clubs. The finances of EPL clubs have been transformed since the introduction of UEFA FFP forced down good management, coupled with the growth in the value of its TV rights.
It’s probably fair to say that the growth in the value of TV rights has enabled EPL clubs to become FFP compliant, but now that they are, any reduction in rights values can be managed within what is now a sustainable framework for most* clubs.
No amount of Chicken Licken doom-mongering will change the fundamentals. The sky won’t fall down on the EPL’s head anytime soon.
BigBhoy
What is new is knowing you are in an environment that is hostile to you.
Typos
Ger
It’s all relative. Rights might fall, they might not. They might rise in Spain or Germany and fall in England.
Some clubs may adapt better than others, but Football is too well managed now at the top level to allow a cyclical downturn to sink the business.
GER57 on 7TH JUNE 2018 3:20 PM
Calm down, I was just putting an alternative point of view out there. Many Scottish football fans already believe we buy success and hate us because we ‘take’ their players (we don’t really that often of course but thats the perception). There is also a perception that football players earning multiple times what a doctor or nurse can take home is obscene, but it depends on the level of obsencity you’re willing to accomodate I suppose.
By your estimation, 100k+ is obscene and you’re probably right. But that means 99k per week is ok then.
And what would Brother Walfrid think? Its a question often raised. But we live in a totally different world now.
HH
MADMITCH on 7TH JUNE 2018 3:19 PM
T88 @ 2.51
We should never pay top dollar.
We should never try to buy success.
We need to build our own — either from 17 or 21.
=========================
Ideally, but the world is far from idea. We can lose potentially big talents in their teens such as Feruz (albeit he wasted his talent) and the vultures are never far away from the likes of Karamoko Dembele,
HH
So Amazon have now got a foothold into the live fitba have they,does that mean that if we order a game from them then dont like it we can get a full refund no questions asked
???…
50 SHADES OF GREEN on 7TH JUNE 2018 4:00 PM
So Amazon have now got a foothold into the live fitba have they,does that mean that if we order a game from them then dont like it we can get a full refund no questions asked
====================
I dont think we’ll be the ones no liking it and requesting refunds ;)
HH
The Old Main Stand,was a lot better,than the present one, firstly it didn’t have restricted views,this one at present is a shambles,2 big Girders at each end, presumably to hold the Stand up,also it’s absolutely Filthy,don’t think it’s had a lick of paint since it was erected,and if we tell Sevco that there Supporters won’t have tickets,to watch the game,so if Celtic want get more money into the club,and I’m sure that end will not be short of Celtic Supporters filling up that end,if the do away with restricted views, it’s a no brainer, just my opinion mind.
The big hoose of Fraser must stay open
Some posters are using far too many commas in their posts!
:-)
HH!!
The ole pish@ng and singing of the Sellick end fair gets missed on CQN