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Time to postpone Euros and prepare for domestic consequences

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The next two rounds of games in La Liga have been suspended as the effects of the coronavirus grow in Spain.  Seven Bundesliga games will take place behind closed doors this weekend, as will all games in Ligue 1, while pretty much everything in Italy is shutdown.

This leaves England the only one of the big five leagues going ahead in front of full stadiums.  Infection rates in Italy, France, Spain and Germany are significantly higher than the UK, but it seems inevitable that public attendance at sporting events in the UK will be stopped within days.

As more players become infected, it will be impossible, and hazardous to players, to continue with football matches.  Uefa must accept that the Euros should be postponed, you cannot have tens of thousands travelling across the continent, then home again.  This competition is a crucial earner for Uefa and national associations; it will be a commercial washout if held this year.  Better on all counts to re-schedule for 2021.

Domestic competitions, as well as the Champions and Europa Leagues, should be allowed to run into June – all behind closed doors.

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  1. Hence it

     

     

    Happy Birthday my friend.

     

    Best wishes.

     

    Enjoy your holiday and will try get a beer in at seasons end*

     

     

    HH

     

    * whenever that is.😊

  2. If Police Scotland can decide what days Sevco can play a semi final as last year then it’s not beyond the realms of possibilities that they will advise the government on possibilities of unrest if Sevco do not get their way.

     

     

    D. :)

  3. Headtheball on 12th March 2020 4:44 pm

     

    ‘Scott Brown having the ‘null and void’ question put to him at his presser. They’d just love it, wouldn’t they!’

     

     

     

    ####

     

     

    Null and void would mean no prize money.

     

     

    That’s £2.4m denied to the huns.

     

     

    Are they (the Club, not the fans) really going to be pushing that line?

  4. Here’s one for the anoraks .

     

     

    According to Celtic Wiki , the Lisbon lions scored 1075 goals for Celtic .

     

     

    That excludes Glasgow cup , world club championship , Dryborough cup and Anglo Scottish cup goals .

  5. Cancel all games.

     

    Award points for remaining games in proportion to the percentage of points gained from the winter break onwards.

     

    I will later try to work out the effect on the minor placings as well will obviously win the title.

     

    Here we go, here we go, here we go

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

     

    Nine in a row

  6. Cannot believe some of the Follow Follow-level conspiracy nonsense on this blog today regarding Sundays game & the First Minister helping out the huns….

     

    Seriously, some of you are reaching fkat-earther levels of delusional pish…..

  7. South Of Tunis on

    Covid 19 in Italy – 6pm today.

     

     

    Confirmed infection -15,113

     

    Deaths -1,016.

  8. !!Bada Bing!! on

    If guys don’t think the football and political authorities, in this country, have not helped Oldco and Newco,they have not been paying attention.

  9. So it looks like the St Johnstone game on 21st will be definitely off or behind closed doors. That means my flights are now useless but as the flight is not cancelled; i can’t make and insurance claim.

     

     

    bummer. I can’t believe that has just dawned on me. Been running around preparing for BCP all day (with a fever and feeling knackered! No cough so just another winter virus i reckon)

  10. !!Bada Bing!! on 12th March 2020 3:58 pm and bigbhoy on 12th March 2020 5:00 pm

     

     

    These are so transparently a dig at the Scottish government rather than a genuine concern over the rights and wrongs of the whole situation. Extreme paranoia in my opinion.

     

     

    I’m up for a conspiracy theory now and then but you seriously think UEFA and the Scottish government are colluding for the benefit of the huns?

     

     

    Its really ridiculous.

  11. hairlikespaghetti on 12th March 2020 5:36 pm

     

     

    A bit of common sense at last, you must be wearing a tin foil hat :-)

  12. timmy7_noted on 12th March 2020 5:48 pm

     

     

    Agreed so far as UEFA are concerned (to whom the huns are largely irrelevant), maybe not so much regarding the Scottish government (and would probably be the same whoever was in office).

     

     

    Mind you maybe any stushie would be welcomed by the Scottish government at the moment considering what else is going on at the moment.

  13. Turned on Manure game and Robbie Savage on, turned over channel.

     

    Guys a wallipor.

     

     

    D. :)

  14. …blud o’ oooor blud ……..bone o’ ooor boner……… etc etc etc…………….

     

     

    If it was us, it’d be…………different.

  15. !!Bada Bing!! on

    Timmy 7- th Scottish Government know all about Oldco,Newco,and have previously stepped in to try and help ‘the fabric of Scottish society ‘.50,000 is ok on Sunday but 501 is banned on Monday? Not difficult to see the hypocrisy there….

  16. !!Bada Bing!! on 12th March 2020 6:02 pm

     

     

    So the Scottish government is developing health policy dependent on the huns getting a home fixture? That is so delusional its really not worth debating.

     

     

    If it were huns talking about GCC or the Vatican we’d be laughing at them, seriously its embarrassing.

     

     

    You do know the huns think the refs cheat against them, right? This Scottish government conspiracy is as bad if not worse than that.

  17. By the way just before I go to make dinner, why do you think Cheltenham went ahead?

  18. Forget referees honest mistakes,minor dark arts; nothing compared to what can happen to this league destination.

     

     

    I would not be surprise to see the league for 19/20 annulled.

  19. Salmondfc “we can not let an institution go to the wall” and “we will speak to HMRC on the clubs behalf” SFA telling porkies to UEFA for deed Huns to get a License to play in Europe. Masonic referees, orange referees “John Beaton Loyal” ” Dougie Dougie” police saying their will be unrest if Huns don’t get the preferred slot for a game of football.

     

     

    BB – you are paranoid😂

     

     

    D. :)

  20. Ref Ajer. Most of us seem to forget that he came here as a midfield player and only because of our injury circumstances he was asked to play CH. imho he has fitted in very well. I will be disappointed if he leaves this close season as I’m really keen to see him develop as a midfielder when we get a couple of good or better CHs.

  21. was hoping Lask would pump them but United score a really decent goal. If Eddie or Griff conjured that one up, I’d have been ecstatic.

  22. onenightinlisbon on

    HAIRLIKESPAGHETTI on 12TH MARCH 2020 5:36 PM

     

     

    Helping the “establishment” club has been going on for as long as I can remember and before. Think you should have a wee think before making such comments pal.

  23. !!Bada Bing!! on

    So the Scottish government is developing health policy dependent on the huns getting a home fixture? That is so delusional its really not worth debating.

     

     

    After that comment I agree

  24. Paranoid

     

     

    Rangers bust

     

    No penalties

     

    Sandy Bryson

     

    5 way agreement

     

    Lord Nimmo Smith

     

    etc

     

    delaying ground closures until Rangers have 2 bumper paydays

  25. The Battered Bunnet on

    Thinking out loud, which is never wise but is something I’m apt to do…

     

     

    I see it reported that the Government’s plan is to manage the coronavirus outbreak such that the population acquires Community or Herd Immunity. Community immunity is achieved when a given percentage of the population is immune to a given illness.

     

     

    The threshold is related to the rate at which the illness is spread, a lower reproductive rate (Ro) of spread giving a lower threshold for community immunity.

     

     

    Measles is pretty vigorous, with a reproductive rate of 12-18 – one infected person will infect 12-18 others – so it has a high threshold for community immunity of more than 90%. If fewer than 90% of a population have not been vaccinated, you’ll see a measles outbreak,

     

     

    It’s reported that the Ro for the coronavirus is 2.3. That is, one infected person will go on to infect 2.3 others, on average.

     

     

    An Ro of 2.3 translates to an immunity threshold of about 60%. That means, when 60% of a given population have been exposed to the virus, herd immunity threshold is reached and the crisis is all but over.

     

     

    The only ‘community’ where the virus completed its course is the Diamond Princess cruise liner. This community was atypical in that it had a considerably older population of passengers – more older adults and fewer children than the community at large.

     

     

    The average age of a passenger on the ship was 58 years old, versus the average age of the UK population of 40 years old.

     

     

    This is important because the virus disproportionately affects older people.

     

     

    Using the (deficient) data available, of 100 people exposed to the virus, 17% will become infected, of which around 7% will be symptomatic.

     

     

    Take the UK population of 66 million and multiply by 60% to get the total number of individual exposures to meet the threshold. That’s 40M approx people exposed to the virus. Then multiply that number by 7% to get the number who will become ill, and that gives 2.7M symptomatic cases to achieve UK community immunity.

     

     

    In Italy, around 10% of symptomatic cases needed hospital treatment, which would suggest around 270,000 UK folk needing a hospital bed while the virus runs its course.

     

     

    Median duration of hospital treatment in China is 10 days. Around 10% of new cases require hospital treatment, so it seems that you need to match critical care availability with new cases in step. 100 new cases in a day will need 10 hospital beds for 10 days.

     

     

    Put another way, the capacity to treat coronavirus patients in hospital is 10% of the number of critical care beds.

     

     

    There are around 4.000 critical care beds in the UK, from a total 167,000 hospital beds overall.

     

     

    Reports suggest other hospital beds can be repurposed as critical care. Remember that we need about 4000 beds for the shit that happens to folk which is not coronavirus related. That’s why we have them.

     

     

    If we double the number of critical care beds that sets a capacity limit of 4,000 new cases over 10 days, or 400 new cases per day needing hospital admission.

     

     

    At that rate, the virus would run its course in 674 days. Call it 2 years to achieve the immunity threshold of 60%.

     

     

    As of this afternoon, the UK has 590 reported cases of which 134 are new cases. You might call that the tip of the tip of the iceberg. Remember, only persons presenting with symptoms are being tested – it’s not a community-wide testing program, so virtually all new cases reported are symptomatic cases.

     

     

    Over the coming week, if new cases follow the pattern in Italy and Spain (they are at the moment) we’ll see new cases rise to 250 then 500 per day. The week after to 1000 and by the end of the month we can expect about 2000 new cases per day. Italy reported 2300 new cases yesterday and 2600 new cases today. It’s what happens after that which is critical.

     

     

    Remember, around 10% of new cases will need hospital treatment.

     

     

    An additional 4000 critical care beds gives capacity for 4000 new cases per day (of whom 400 will need hospitalised for 10 days).

     

     

    If new cases continue to double at the current rate, the capacity of the 4000 new beds will be reached within a month.

     

     

    It’s important to note that beds don’t get the virus, but the clinical staff do, and at (presumably) the same rate and the same extent as the rest of us. We might expect staffing to be a bigger problem that physical bed space.

     

     

    And more widely, with a 14 day quarantine, these numbers suggest that when hospital capacity is reached, there will be around 56,000 coronavirus cases off work on the sick in the country at any point in time. That’s a lot of stuff not getting done.

     

     

    After that? Who knows. Will the virus course maintain at or below a steady capacity-filling 4000 new cases per day? Increase beyond capacity? Or die back as the warmer weather and behaviour changes alter the course of the virus?

     

     

    No one knows. But the idea that we can acquire herd/community immunity and stop the course of the virus any time soon seems somewhat optimistic.

     

     

    Reading back I should perhaps stop thinking out loud.

     

     

    And apologies if this has already been covered – I started the post at lunchtime, then went back to work, and only picked it up again later.

     

     

    Anyway, if someone would be kind enough to check my arithmetic and assumptions I’d be quite grateful.

  26. As for Ajer, I remember when Rio Ferdinand came onto the scene and big fees were paid for him before he was 21.

     

     

    He was really raw, though, and relied on his pace to get him out of trouble.

     

     

    His awareness was so bad at that time that one pundit said that if there was a magazine called ‘Ball Watching Monthly’, they would want him as Editor.

     

     

    I believe he had a decent enough career ?

  27. macjay1 for Neil Lennon on

    WEEJOE on 12TH MARCH 2020 6:24 PM

     

    Ref Ajer. Most of us seem to forget that he came here as a midfield player and only because of our injury circumstances he was asked to play CH. imho he has fitted in very well. I will be disappointed if he leaves this close season as I’m really keen to see him develop as a midfielder when we get a couple of good or better CHs.

     

     

    ===============================================================================

     

     

    Agreed.

     

    Finding it hard to understand / justify some of the negative comments about Ajer .

     

    His agent is pushing the boat out. Ambit claiming . aka Doing his job.

  28. The Battered Bunnet – good post, I have checked it and …… Drum roll…. I have no idea if it’s correct.😂

     

     

    But I enjoyed reading it.

     

     

    D. :)

  29. So ‘Boris’ tells us to accept we will lose loved ones but won’t implement any drastic measures yet because we (the public) will only get bored and not do it properly when the virus gets more serious

     

     

    That’s what I took from it

  30. TBB – very good analysis but what about hot summer weather killing off the virus in a lot of countries ?

     

     

    I can’t imagine Iranians having the flu in August :-)

     

     

    Still, as my wife frequently points out, I could be wrong !

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