Re-orientating our expectations

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The disappointment online and among supporters in general since Tuesday’s defeat in Rotterdam has been tangible.  That’s an indication of just how hopeful we had become, despite extenuating circumstances and an away track record that should have prepared us for much worse.

Frustrations were shared by the squad, who know they let an opportunity slip.  For me, a reversal was always on the cards.  The game came too soon, with a mixture of players who made their debut just days before and ended with our seventh choice (arguably eighth) central defender stepping up.

We need games and results like that.  There is little to learn from wins over Dundee; even the victory at Ibrox can only inform to an extent.  You learn more from defeats in places like Rotterdam and Bodo than in a season of home Premiership games.

It should also ground you and me.  When Celtic win just-so-many-trophies it becomes difficult not to re-orientate our expectations that the current era is normal.  The CQN demographic suggests most of us have lived through the barren 90s and many of us were there during the 50s and early 60s, but even we get dragged into despair by the odd draw.  What chance the kids?

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  1. lets all do the huddle on

    we just dont have a tv revenue stream but have plenty of other inputs, albeit one of them is selling our best players and replacing them with projects we hope will be as good

  2. The SPL is represented in each of the three Euro competitions, an achievement in itself. Brighton are playing in Europe for the first time in their history. The first time. Villa in Europe first time in fourteen seasons, Newcastle first time in CL in over twenty. Point being we have access to Europe, but from a weaker league, a weaker base if you like. We need to improve our own footballing environment, but too many on here cannot see past the Old Firm model. Some like burnley78 and sftb dismiss a bigger SPL and claim to have offered alternative scenarios in the past, scenarios that no one has even heard of. Or ever likely too. We must move away from playing the same teams four times a season, and go back to playing clubs twice. It is the only way more young Scottish players will get a chance to develop football wise. The only chance. Let us try an 18 team league, ignore the SFTB and the Burnley78s of this world, they have no ideas beyond the status quo, EPL dreaming. Might not work, but it cannot be any worse than the one we are embedded in, the Old Firm one.

  3. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Tough on Aberdeen earlier.

     

     

    An unexpected draw would have helped the coefficient.

  4. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    League needs to stretch (Repeat).

     

     

    Just a wee bit.

     

     

    Take a little of the pressure at bottom of league away.

     

     

    14 teams.

     

     

    Two rounds played.

     

    Home and away : 26 matches

     

     

    League splits to 7 and 7

     

    Rounds 3 & 4 played

     

    Home and away : 12 matches

     

     

    Total 38 games.

     

     

    At end of round 3, teams in 7th and 8th place (top of bottom / bottom of top) will be confirmed as teams who have no game on last day of season.

     

     

    1 team relegated. 1 in play off.

     

     

    No plastic pitches.

  5. Celtic Mac

     

     

    “Some like burnley78 and sftb dismiss a bigger SPL and claim to have offered alternative scenarios in the past, scenarios that no one has even heard of”

     

    ———————————-

     

     

    I am one of the people who have never heard of what I said either.

     

     

    Could you enlighten me?

  6. bigrailroadblues on

    I drink to remember, I drink to forget….The past has been bottled and labelled with Glasgow Celtic love. 💚

  7. lets all do the huddle on

    would that format of an expanded league lead to a vastly increased number of meaningless games for more teams?

     

     

    the team that is 8th after only 26 games likely has nothing to play for in the last 12 games because they will be miles ahead of relegation, whereas without a split that early they would be challenging for a euro place

     

     

    a difficult one

  8. lets all do the huddle on

    I drink to remember, I drink to forget….The past has been bottled and labelled with Glasgow Celtic love. 💚

     

    —-

     

     

    im sure you can squeeze another few in!

  9. When comparing the 2020/21 prize money that the winners received in the Scottish Premiership and Premier League, the Premier League winners received a vastly larger sum of prize money (€184 million vs €3.35 million).

     

     

    Furthermore, the winners of both competitions qualify for the Champions League. However, English champions automatically qualify for the group stages, while the Scottish champion gets a spot in the Third Qualifying Round.

  10. Der hun was under the cosh, then finished the first half strong.

     

     

    Hope there’s no more of that – I like the quiet version of Ipox. Other than boooos.

  11. List in order of value per game, per league – Top 10

     

     

    updated as of December 31, 2022

     

     

    Rank League Country UEFA Rank Number of Live Games Value Per Game

     

    1. Premier League England 1st 200 £8.00m

     

    2. Bundesliga Germany 4th 306 £3.02m (€3.59m)

     

    3. La Liga Spain 2nd 380 £2.18m (€2.60m)

     

    4. Serie A Italy 3rd 380 £2.05m (€2.44m)

     

    5. Ligue 1 France 5th 380 £1.28m (€1.53m)

     

    6. English Football League England N/A 168 £708,000

     

    7. Scottish Premiership Scotland 9th 54 £555,000

     

    8. Primeira Liga Portugal 6th 306 £493,000 (€588,000)

     

    9. Brasileirao Brazil N/A 380 £434,000 (R$2.734m)

     

    10. Major League Soccer United States N/A 476? £430,000 ($525,000)

  12. To many professional football teams in Scotland for my liking.

     

     

    It could be narrowed down to 12, mibbe 10.

     

     

    The 3 divisions below the SPL should revert to junior status or lower.

     

     

    Clubs could merge if necessary.

     

     

    Like the huns and Kilmarnock.

     

     

    Makes sense tae me.

  13. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    LADTH @ 8:57pm

     

     

    Yes, possibly.

     

     

    Depends on how competitive Europe or relegation is.

     

     

    8th place, if clear of danger, could start blooding youngsters for next season.

     

     

    7th, if not in the reckoning for Europe, could do similar while counting their money from playing others for whom the game (and hopefully the crowd and TV) is important.

     

     

    BTW – radical but here goes.

     

     

    I’d also overhaul prize money based not just on league position ….

     

     

    … but also by how many academy player appearances made.

  14. Two of our best young prospects left Celtic for Bayern Munich in the hope of future development. One of them has been loaned to Queens Park, (the other to Wigan) where he has teamed up with a Celtic loanee. The Spiders, reallly do give young players a chance, as do Ayr United, who for those that might be interested, are playing against each other tomorrow, 7.45pm at Hampden. Quite a good level for young players, lets hope both the Celtic connected bhoys continue to develop there.

  15. 18 August 2022

     

     

    Key findings from Deloitte’s 31st Annual Review of Football Finance:

     

     

    The European football market grew combined revenues by 10% (€2.4bn) in 2020/21 to €27.6bn – despite an almost complete absence of fans from stadia during the season – with the uplift largely driven by deferred broadcast revenues from the previous year and the success of the postponed UEFA EURO 2020 tournament.

     

     

    The ‘big five’ European leagues – the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 – generated €15.6bn in revenue in 2020/21, a 3% increase from the previous year (€15.1bn in 2019/20).

     

     

    Premier League club revenues grew by 8% to £4.9bn, up from £4.5bn in 2019/20, and are expected to hit £5.5bn in the 2021/22 season.

     

     

    The Premier League was the only one of the ‘big five’ European leagues to see clubs improve total operating profits in the year, which cumulatively increased from £49m to £479m.

     

     

    Premier League clubs’ net debt at the end of the 2020/21 season increased just 4% to £4.1bn. In comparison, Championship clubs’ net debt at the end of the 2020/21 season was £1.8bn, an increase of 32%.

     

     

    Championship clubs’ wage costs exceeded revenues for the fourth-consecutive year with a record high wages/revenue ratio of 125%.

     

     

    The European football market as a whole saw revenues grow by 10% to €27.6bn in 2020/21 (€25.2bn in 2019/20) despite an almost complete absence of fans from stadia during the season, according to the 31st Annual Review of Football Finance from Deloitte’s Sports Business Group.

     

     

    The strong recovery in revenue terms of the European market, which contracted for the first time in over a decade in the 2019/20 season due to the impact of COVID-19, was fuelled by deferred broadcast revenues and the success of the delayed UEFA EURO 2020 tournament.

     

     

    Europe’s premier leagues

     

     

    The ‘big five’ European leagues – representing a 57% share of the European football market – grew by 3% to €15.6bn. However, revenue polarisation between and within European football leagues continued at pace.

     

     

    Largely attributable to deferred broadcast revenue, Premier League club revenues grew by 8% to €5.5bn in 2020/21. By contrast, the Bundesliga – which experienced the lowest uplift in aggregate broadcast revenue of the ‘big five’ in 2020/21 – reported a 6% fall in revenue to €3.0bn.

     

     

    Revenues in Spain’s La Liga also contracted by 6% to €2.9bn. La Liga clubs collectively recorded a loss in operating profits for the first since the Sports Business Group began tracking this data on a club-by-club level, in the 2013/14 season.

     

     

    Clubs in Serie A experienced the greatest percentage growth in aggregate revenues of any ‘big five’ league in 2020/21, increasing by 23% to a record high of €2.5bn. Driven by a 48% increase in broadcast revenue due to significant deferrals, it is the only league to have reported higher combined revenues than before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

     

     

    Ligue 1 fell further behind Serie A in revenue terms, with the divide between the two league’s total revenues having doubled to over €900m. Ligue 1 clubs revenues grew by just 1% during the 2020/21 season to €1.6bn, as the curtailment rather than postponement of the competition led to very limited deferred revenue being recognised.

     

     

    The Premier League was the only one of the ‘big five’ to report improved total operating profits in the year, cumulatively increasing from £49m to £479m. When excluding the Premier League the ‘big five’ reported increased total operating losses during the year, increasing from €461m to €901m.

     

     

    Tim Bridge, lead partner in the Sports Business Group at Deloitte, said: “Clubs across Europe played a significant proportion of matches behind closed doors or with reduced capacity during the 2020/21 season which caused an almost complete loss of matchday revenue. It’s testament to the resilience of the industry, the value driven by broadcast deals and the success of the Euros that the European football market has achieved tenacious growth, in revenue terms, over the past year.

     

     

    “However, it is important not to overlook the loss-making position of many clubs. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally changed the financial management of European football, with leagues and clubs having to seek external investment and responding to a shift in trends around transfer spending and club operations.

     

     

    “Leaps made to boost financial sustainability through new UEFA regulations and to professionalise the women’s game will challenge clubs to break from tradition, potentially boosting profitability in a notoriously loss-making industry and creating a more inclusive environment for all. It is an exciting period, but one to be well prepared for.”

     

     

     

    30 years of the Premier League

     

     

    Despite matchday revenue falling to just £31m, Premier League club revenues increased by 8% to £4.9bn in 2020/21, following the league’s first ever drop in revenues in the previous season.

     

     

    This increase is largely attributable to the reported broadcast rebate of £330m which suppressed 2019/20 revenue, and the deferral of some broadcast income from the 2019/20 season into the 2020/21 financial period.

     

     

    Premier League clubs’ wage costs increased 5% to £3.5bn in 2020/21, with only seven of the 17 consistent Premier League clubs reporting a reduction in wages. As a result of revenue growth outstripping the increase in wages, the division’s wages/revenue ratio reduced slightly from 73% to 71% in 2020/21.

     

     

    While operating profits in Premier League clubs increased from £49m to £479m during the 2020/21 season, pre-tax losses remained significant despite decreasing from £991m to £669m. This is the third consecutive year that Premier League clubs have reported pre-tax losses, with only four clubs reporting a pre-tax profit in 2020/21.

     

     

    Overall, Premier League clubs’ net debt at the end of the 2020/21 season increased 4% to £4.1bn (2020: £3.9bn).

     

     

    Deloitte predicts that a return of fans to full stadia, new broadcast deals and improved commercial deals will boost Premier League revenues to exceed £6bn in the 2022/23 season.

     

     

    Bridge continued: “As the Premier League enters its fourth decade, it’s further ahead of the competition than ever before, having emerged from the pandemic without as significant an increase in net debt as many might have expected. The stark reality, however, is that the league last broke even at a pre-tax level in the 2017/18 season, highlighting the crucial need for strong governance and financial planning in the years ahead.”

     

     

    Football League clubs

     

     

    Championship clubs’ combined revenues of £600m in 2020/21 was a decrease of £78m (12%) compared to 2019/20. This was largely due to clubs’ matchday revenues falling by £101m (from £166m in 2018/19 to £16m in 2020/21), as the majority of matches in the 2020/21 season were played behind closed doors or with restricted attendances.

     

     

    Championship clubs’ wage costs exceeded revenues for the fourth-consecutive year with a record high wages/revenue ratio of 125%. Whilst in aggregate Championship clubs managed to reduce wage costs by 8% to £747m, these savings were exceeded by the loss of overall revenue.

     

     

    Championship clubs’ net debt at the end of the 2020/21 season of £1.8bn was up £433m (32%) compared to the end of the previous season.

     

     

    In 2020/21, League One club revenues fell by 22% to £129m, while League Two club revenues fell by 4% to £94m. The negative financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic meant that the average of League One clubs’ wage costs of £5.5m surpassed revenue for the first time with a wages/revenue ratio of 103%. For League Two clubs the average wage cost was £3.1m, with a wages/revenue ratio of 80%.

     

     

    Bridge continued: “There now can be no doubt that significant change is required to drive long-term financial sustainability in the Championship. Without sustained collaboration across the English football system the gap to the Premier League, the competitive advantage of clubs with parachute payments and the cycle of clubs gambling on promotion will continue to increase.”

     

     

     

    Investment influx

     

     

    Deloitte’s analysis highlights a boom in investment across Europe’s ‘big five’ leagues, as clubs have sought and attracted investment at the very top level. Fifteen investments in clubs across the ‘big five’ leagues took place in 2021, more than in 2019 and 2020 combined (12). The vast majority (87%) of investments were made by high-net-worth individuals and private equity firms, with more than two-thirds of investments being made from the US.

     

     

    Multi-club ownership (MCO) has grown in popularity, with over 70 MCOs now thought to be in existence, more than double the amount only five years ago (28). Nine of the 20 Premier League clubs operate within a MCO model.

     

     

    Sam Boor, sports M&A advisory lead in Deloitte’s Sports Business Group, said: “Football is proving an attractive opportunity for a growing pool of international investors, whose confidence has been buoyed by clubs’ recovery post-COVID. To ensure that new investment brings value to all – those on the pitch, in the stands and in the boardrooms – the importance of responsible investment, which protects the financial and operational sustainability of clubs, cannot be overemphasised.”

  16. PeterLatchfordsBelly on

    Make your mind up Paul/Peter. Either the ‘football market’ has moved on in the past 20 years and we need to evolve our ‘model’ in response or we should continue to orientate our expectations around the 90s or heaven forfend, the 50s!! Sod it, the point of comparison I choose is pre-Great War! Up your fame Celtic!

     

     

    Such self-serving, servile, distracting mince. Losing to a big Dutch club like Feyenoord away is something any reasonable Celtic fan would expect and accept. What isn’t acceptable is ALWAYS losing these matches in every circumstance over a two decade period as a seeming matter of policy.

     

     

    When Ange came in the brakes came off. When Rodgers came back it was all about steady progression in Europe. Already it’s reverted to record profits in anticipation of future failure and you’ve never had it so good, remember the 90s. Talk about dampening expectations whilst coining it in!

     

     

    Pedro’s back. Forget Ange levels of optimism. Look forward to steady asset stripping of your best players and Ronny Deila era Molde disgraces and top tier closures. Oh and mortifying and transparent rationalisations on here. Toxic man.

  17. PeterLatchfordsBelly on

    PS Paul and Peter want you to fucos on this particular game and question the reasonableness of your expectation. Of course the real source of the teeth gnashing since Rotterdam isn’t the individual match, it’s the greater point it signals. The handbrake turn in policy to the pre-Ange era now that the real alpha has left the building.

     

     

    We see you.

  18. Celtic Mac

     

     

    You need to help me out with my failing memory.

     

     

    You have accused me of painting some unspecified scenario that was rubbish.

     

     

    But since I can’t remember and you have failed to state it, I remain being accused of having done something bad but we’re not quite sure, either of us, what that is

  19. bigrailroadblues on

    Couldn’t give a flying fook about the hun. I’m still celebrating the 1969 Cup Final. My version of catchup. 😂

  20. Taxi driver told me tonight that we tried for KT and he was desperate to come back but Arteta vetoed it.

     

    We tried for Moussa Dembele but he said he would never work with BR again.

     

    We agreed £10m for Leaf from Ipswich but he ‘needed’ £70k per week.

     

    The Wolves winger pulled out at the last minute.

     

    It’s not always Celtic’s fault.

  21. Saw the second half of hun game, they have either vastly improved since we played them or Betis are flattering to deceive.

     

     

    Surprise performance and result, for me.

     

     

    Mon the coefficient!

  22. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Brighton 2 AEK 3.

     

     

    Varying degrees of motivations in the lesser European competitions.

     

     

    For instance… AEK played like a team whose families were being held hostage at knifepoint by an organised crime betting ring who had put down millions on an away win.

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